If you have always wished to do the job for the authorities and have a history in finance, accounting, business enterprise administration, commerce, or economics, you may possibly be intrigued in some of these new task postings.
Community Expert services and Procurement Canada’s (PSPC) finance department is choosing for a number of senior economical analyst positions throughout provinces, and shelling out wherever from $72,074 to $97,774 on a yearly basis.
The deadline to implement is November 28, so you might want to act quickly.
👋 Finance specialists! 📈
Do you have two or a lot more several years of experience in #finance or #accounting? @PSPC_SPAC is making a pool to fill long term wants for senior money analysts.
To be capable to implement, you will require a degree from a recognized post-secondary institution with specialization in accounting, finance, business enterprise administration, commerce, or economics, as effectively as knowledge linked to positions in the Economical Administration Group.
If you never have the working experience, you will require occupational certification.
The acknowledged experienced accounting designations are Chartered Skilled Accountant (CPA), Chartered Accountant (CA), Certified Management Accountant (CMA), and Qualified Common Accountant (CGA).
You also will will need substantial encounter (at least two a long time) in just one or extra of the following finance places:
• Accounting operations (e.g. processing accounts payable or receivable, bookkeeping, reconciliation, checking of accounts and information verification) • Company accounting (e.g. preparing of month to month or once-a-year monetary statements or external economical reports) • Monetary organizing and evaluation, forecasting and variance assessment • Monetary administration advisory providers (e.g. deliver tips to strengthen economic details or the fiscal condition, just take corrective action on discrepancies) • Internal or exterior audit, verification, or assessments of economic statements, transactions or enterprise processes • Financial devices (e.g. implementation, tests, routine maintenance, person guidance, training, enhancement of person guides) • Price estimation or costing • Planning and controlling of cash belongings on an accrual foundation (e.g. keep assets on a every month foundation, evaluate the accrual profile of capital belongings) or • Fiscal plan (e.g. establish or utilize and interpret guidelines and laws).
You will also need to have knowledge furnishing information and direction or tips to several stakeholders (this sort of as customers, partners, or colleagues) on financial problems.
Why get the job done for the PSPC?
On their web-site, PSPC also lists the major 10 explanations you would want to function for them. The benefits and added benefits seem really great, and you can make some valuable connections, too.
Careers at PSPC supply courses, mentoring, coaching, and at-perform schooling, as well as first rate pay. Workforce get good likelihood to develop in the group, alongside with a wide range of employee advantages dental, well being and everyday living insurance policy and a top-notch pension program.
You get more than three weeks of paid out go away and, likely, a fantastic work-daily life equilibrium many thanks to the PSPC’s adaptable hrs and operate preparations. It also has inclusive hiring practices, and people from marginalized communities are often encouraged to use.
As well as, you get to function for the government, which presents you some solid bragging legal rights, also!
The positions are currently obtainable in Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, and Gatineau. Implement before November 28, or forward this to somebody you know who could possibly be suitable.
For extra aspects, check out the PSPC’s position listing listed here.
Twitter on Friday laid off hundreds of staff in departments across the organization, in a severe round of expense cutting that could probably upend how 1 of the world’s most influential platforms operates one particular week following it was acquired by billionaire Elon Musk.
A lot of Twitter personnel commenced submitting on the platform Thursday night time and Friday morning that they had previously been locked out of their enterprise e mail accounts forward of the prepared layoff notification. Some also shared blue hearts and salute emojis indicating they ended up out at the business.
By Friday early morning, Twitter staff from departments which include ethical AI, marketing and interaction, lookup, general public coverage, wellness and other teams experienced tweeted about acquiring been enable go. Associates of the curation staff, which assist elevate responsible info on the platform, such as about elections, ended up also laid off, according to staff posts.
“Just acquired remotely logged out of my perform notebook and taken off from Slack,” 1 Twitter personnel mentioned on the platform. “So unhappy it had to finish this way.”
One more staff mentioned that she and other members of Twitter’s human legal rights crew experienced been laid off. The staff included that she is happy of the team’s function “to shield those at-danger in global conflicts & crises which includes Ethiopia, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, and to defend the desires of those particularly at threat of human rights abuse by advantage of their social media presence, these types of as journalists & human rights defenders.”
Simon Balmain, a previous Twitter senior neighborhood manager who was laid off Friday, mentioned in an interview with CNN that he missing obtain to Slack, e mail and other internal devices about 8 hours before acquiring an email Friday morning officially notifying him that he’d been fired. He extra that the lay off email “still did not deliver any information really” about why he’d been enable go.
“The waves of annoyance and disappointment and all that stuff are unquestionably mitigated by the excessive solidarity we’ve seen from people that are in the enterprise, persons that are in the exact same posture, persons that remaining the corporation in many years long gone by,” Balmain stated. “It’s like a giant assistance network, which has been definitely astounding.”
Just one Twitter personnel who was laid off told CNN Friday that some staff are relieved to have been enable go. “For me, staying safe would’ve been punishment,” the employee said.
Even though Twitter workforce had been submitting about remaining laid off, Musk on Friday appeared for a pleasant job interview at an trader convention and spoke about earning cheaper electric powered cars and his ambitions to go to Mars. For the duration of the interview, Musk reported of Twitter, “I tried using to get out of the deal,” but then extra, “I consider there is a remarkable total of probable … and I think it could be one of the most important corporations in the world.”
The interviewer said that Musk experienced laid off “half of Twitter” and Musk nodded, whilst he did not remark on the remark.
(In a collection of tweets Friday evening, Yoel Roth, head of Twitter’s have confidence in and security group, confirmed all round headcount was lower by roughly 50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The layoffs eliminated 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of the company’s rely on and protection team, major to reductions in consumer service but little change to content material moderation, in accordance to Roth. )
In his job interview, Musk appeared to body the sweeping layoffs as needed for a company that, like other social media companies, was dealing with “revenue challenges” prior to his acquisition as advertisers rethink expending amid recession fears.
Musk also stated “a variety of main advertisers have stopped spending on Twitter” in the times due to the fact the acquisition was accomplished.
Twitter had about 7,500 staff prior to Musk’s takeover, that means about 3,700 staff members ended up laid off. The cuts arrive as Musk attempts to boost the company’s bottom line following taking out considerable personal debt financing to fund his $44 billion acquisition.
The e mail sent Thursday night notified workforce that they would receive a see by 12 p.m. ET Friday that informs them of their employment position.
“If your employment is not impacted, you will acquire a notification through your Twitter e mail,” a copy of the e mail obtained by CNN stated. “If your employment is impacted, you will receive a notification with next techniques through your individual electronic mail.”
The email extra that “to assist be certain the safety” of employees and Twitter’s programs, the company’s offices “will be temporarily shut and all badge entry will be suspended.”
The electronic mail concluded acknowledging that it will be “an extremely challenging working experience to go through” for the workforce.
Many Twitter personnel on Thursday night time submitted a class action lawsuit alleging that Twitter is in violation of the federal and California Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act (Alert Act) soon after laying off some personnel currently.
The Alert Act needs that an employer with a lot more than 100 personnel have to deliver 60 days’ innovative composed recognize prior to a mass layoff “affecting 50 or a lot more employees at a one web-site of work.”
“Elon Musk, the richest male in the globe, has created apparent that he thinks complying with federal labor laws is ‘trivial,’” Lawyer Shannon Liss-Riordan, who submitted the lawsuit, explained in a assertion to CNN. “We have submitted this federal criticism to guarantee that Twitter be held accountable to our guidelines and to prevent Twitter staff members from unknowingly signing absent their legal rights.”
California’s Employment Advancement Section verified to CNN that no Alert notices experienced been filed by Twitter as of midday Friday.
Separately, other labor legal professionals explained to CNN Friday they had started getting inquiries from Twitter personnel questioning no matter whether their terminations may possibly have been unlawfully discriminatory or retaliatory.
“Former Twitter workers have arrived at out to us with regards to their layoffs and their situations, and so we’re looking at all the concerns — further than acceptable observe — and to make positive the worker wasn’t laid off thanks to their membership in a guarded classification,” said Chauniqua Young, a spouse at the legislation firm Outten & Golden.
Beyond the possible for lawsuits arising from the layoffs, other authorized industry experts say Musk’s managing of the cuts may possibly effectively produce additional complications for him down the road — irrespective of whether in conditions of attracting long term talent or by trying to keep remaining staff happy.
“Once you handle individuals like this, they keep in mind that,” explained Terri Gerstein, a fellow at Harvard Legislation School’s Labor and Worklife Method and Financial Policy Institute. “Of the folks remaining, it is a certainty that none of them truly feel protected in their work, and I would be stunned if the remaining folks have been not updating their resumes ideal now or conversing with each individual other about beginning a union.”
Musk commenced his tenure at Twitter by firing CEO Parag Agrawal and two other executives, in accordance to two people today acquainted with the conclusion.
And in less than a 7 days due to the fact Musk acquired the enterprise, its C-suite appears to have pretty much solely cleared out, by means of a blend of firings and resignations. Musk has also dissolved Twitter’s previous board of administrators.
Numerous staffers on Friday summed up their inner thoughts with a hashtag, #LoveWhereYouWorked, a past-tense engage in on one earlier usually used by Twitter workforce.
– Brian Fung and Shawn Nottingham contributed to this report
U.S. shares ended up firmly higher Friday but down for the week as traders assessed every month employment figures that did small to thwart the chance of more intense financial tightening and weighed talks that China may ease COVID limitations.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) superior 1.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Regular (^DJI) jumped far more than 400 factors, or about 1.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The technological know-how-focused Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) posted a obtain of approximately the exact same magnitude. Nonetheless, all a few main averages ended up down for the week. The Dow concluded down for the initially time in 5 months.
The U.S. financial system included 261,000 careers in Oct, when September’s reading was upwardly revised to 315,000 from 263,000 formerly claimed, the Labor Division explained Friday. Economists anticipated a payroll gain of 195,000 past month, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The unemployment amount ticked up to 3.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.
“Today’s much better than expected report illustrates the challenging task that even now lies ahead for the Fed wrestling a resilient labor market and sticky inflation,” Mike Loewengart, head of design portfolio building at Morgan Stanley’s International Investment Place of work, said in emailed comments. “While the quantity may perhaps be disappointing for traders hoping for a dovish Fed sooner instead than later on, retain in brain it was the most affordable examining in almost two a long time, so there could be indications that the market place is slowing.”
Buyers have guess that some indications of a cooling labor market would drive the Federal Reserve to scale back on its aggressive price-hiking marketing campaign, but Chair Jerome Powell asserted Wednesday that slight moderations in the details have been not plenty of for a pause on boosts, with labor conditions however traditionally restricted.
“Although work vacancies have moved down below their highs and the speed of position gains has slowed from before in the calendar year, the labor sector proceeds to be out of harmony, with desire considerably exceeding the offer of accessible staff,” Powell claimed on Wednesday after the U.S. central lender sent a fourth straight fascination price hike of 75 basis details.
In the 3rd quarter of this year, payroll gains averaged 372,000 for each thirty day period. Weekly jobless claims, the most timely snapshot of the U.S. labor industry, have also arrive in consistently reduced, with this week’s examining at 217,000.
“Initial statements are not rising 1 little bit,” DataTrek’s Nicholas Colas stated in a observe. “Simply set, there is continue to no sign that neither aggressive Fed financial policy nor the tighter financial ailments that it has brought is but hitting U.S. labor markets.”
Central banking institutions across the globe have moved in lockstep with the U.S. Federal Reserve to progress with a combative route of financial tightening, increasing fears about the affect of synchronized fee raises. The Bank of England elevated interest costs by 75 basis details on Thursday, whilst European Central Financial institution President Christine Lagarde reported in new remarks that costs could have to have to be raised to restrictive stages to drag inflation again to the 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} target.
Though monetary coverage has held investors’ attention this 7 days, company earnings have continued to hurry in. Shares of Block (SQ) surged 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} after the enterprise meaningfully beat estimates on sturdy general performance in its Cash Application and Square payment offerings.
Payments peer PayPal (PYPL), in the meantime, saw shares drop just about 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} right after the corporation slashed its profits forecast to 8.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its prior outlook of 18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, even as it beat on earnings success.
Twilio (TWLO) shares tanked 35{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} right after the cloud communications enterprise skipped on earnings and noted softer-than-predicted steering.
Toymaker Funko’s (FNKO) inventory plunged pretty much 60{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} immediately after the enterprise described a significant earnings miss out on and slashed its once-a-year forecast forward of the holiday getaway time.
In the meantime, shares of Alibaba (BABA) gained 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} together with a broad rally in Chinese shares amid speculation the region will halt its rigorous zero-COVID policy.
—
Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Abide by her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc
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Shares shed ground Tuesday as extra earnings and financial data details rolled in and traders awaited the result of the Federal Reserve coverage meeting.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) turned lower by about .4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in the day’s session, while the Dow Jones Industrial Typical (^DJI) ticked lessen about .2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell by .9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. All 3 indices experienced risen to start off the session ahead of turning decrease.
Investors digested financial releases on Tuesday, which includes the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) survey, which uncovered that job openings unexpectedly rose in September to 10.7 million from 10.28 million past month. Economists experienced envisioned openings to minimize to about 10 million, which would have been in line with the kind of cooling the Federal Reserve wishes to see in the labor market place.
Meanwhile, the October ISM producing PMI index fell to 50.2, although economists surveyed by Bloomberg approximated 50.. The ISM producing employment index rose to 50. from 48.7, as economists surveyed by Bloomberg surveyed approximated 53..
The inventory moves arrived just after the important indices lagged on Monday as buyers geared up for the Federal Reserve’s interest amount selection on Wednesday.
“Even though equities have come off of their lows considering that mid-October, the rally has not quite been sufficient to raise the S&P 500 back up to its stages from the final Fed meeting,”Jake Gordon, analyst at Bespoke Investment Group, wrote in a notice.
“The S&P 500 after yet again finds itself lower amongst conferences producing it the eighth time in the final ten that it has traded decreased in between meetings. With that claimed, the current decline has been significantly much more modest than some of the historic drops like the 13{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} drop prior to the June meeting,” Gordon included.
The Fed’s intense pace of curiosity rate improves has pressured markets for a lot of the yr, leaving traders hoping for any indication that the central lender will appear off its hawkish stance.
The Fed is greatly envisioned to increase curiosity rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday at the conclusion of its two-day coverage assembly, but some strategists see the bank slowing the price of raises moving ahead.
JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli sees “a action down from 75bps to 50bps and then to 25bps just before this tightening cycle ends. Any indicator from the Fed that [the] terminal charge is decreased or that the tightening cycle finishes in 2022 is probably to [be] digested bullishly by stocks. The biggest hazard to this see is CPI coming in hotter than expected upcoming 7 days or in December.”
What ever the size of December’s move, “the Fed is in a tricky situation simply because they are really info dependent. And it can be just unclear how quickly inflation is likely to come down,” Public Marketplaces Team Head Lisa Erickson instructed Yahoo Finance Live on Monday.
On the earnings and company front Tuesday:
Uber (UBER): The trip-hailing large posted a third-quarter loss but defeat analysts’ estimates for income and confirmed a surge in bookings. Shares have been up far more than 14{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in early buying and selling.
Pfizer (PFE): The drugmaker posted a better-than-anticipated quarter and elevated its earnings outlook for the 12 months even with bigger charges offset slowing COVID-19 vaccine demand exterior the US.
SoFi (SOFI): The digital financial institution described a lesser-than-anticipated quarterly reduction and income that topped analyst estimates. The fintech corporation raised its assistance as the business added 4.7 million a lot more prospects by the finish of the 3rd quarter.
Eli Lilly and Enterprise (LLY): The pharmaceutical organization beat 3rd-quarter expectations but lower its 2022 outlook, citing exchange fees and tax legislation.
Abiomed (ABMD): The maker of tiny heart pumps agreed to a just about $17 billion takeover by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as the offer provides J&J publicity to a high-expansion segment of healthcare technological know-how.
Airbnb (ABNB): San Francisco-based Airbnb claimed 3rd quarter earnings that defeat estimates, but forecast fourth-quarter revenue that came in below industry estimates.
Innovative Micro Units (AMD): The chipmaker posted 3rd-quarter effects that missed expectations irrespective of warning in October about weakening Pc product sales affecting the quarter’s results.
And the week will finish with the Oct positions report. The Labor Department’s report is predicted to clearly show month to month payrolls fall below 200,000, while economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimated 190,000 positions were being additional or developed final month.
In strength marketplaces, Brent crude, the worldwide benchmark for oil prices, fell to $94.36 a barrel Tuesday early morning. Yields on the 10-calendar year Treasury take note fell as a great deal as 12 foundation factors to beneath 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} ahead of climbing back again earlier mentioned that stage later on in the early morning.
U.S. stated shares of Chinese firms like Alibaba (BABA) also surged Tuesday as unconfirmed social media reviews swirled that the Chinese authorities might be shifting toward shedding its rigid COVID plan.
Somewhere else, the Toronto Inventory Exchange resumed trading following a technological difficulty halted the market place soon just after the opening bell Tuesday.
—
Dani Romero is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @daniromerotv
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When we were younger, there was a point when someone told us that a recession was defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
Later, some of us learned that a recession is in fact designated and dated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), who make the call when they see a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” The variables the bureau emphasizes include income, employment, personal consumption, and industrial production.1
If there’s any doubt that it’s the NBER who’s behind official recession calls, then consider this statement from the BEA:
While gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity, the often-cited identification of a recession with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is not an official designation. The designation of a recession is the province of a committee of experts at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private non-profit research organization that focuses on understanding the U.S. economy.
So there you have it.
That said, this exercise of defining recessions isn’t very productive. It’s mostly just semantics, and it’s highly dependent on the metrics you decide to include and exclude in how you calculate economic activity.²
(Source: Getty Images)
One thing everyone can agree on is that much of the economy is slowing. In fact, the BEA says GDP contracted at a 1.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} rate in Q1, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is pointing to a 1.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} contraction in Q2.
But some very visible aspects of the economy are holding up very well.
Total employment stood at 151.980 million, which is up 21.467 million from its low in April 2020. It’s now just barely below its pre-pandemic level of 152.504 million in February 2020.
The more timely unemployment claims data also suggests the jobs market is in pretty good shape.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance came in at 235,000 for the week ending July 2. While the number is up from its six-decade low of 166,000 in March, it remains near levels seen during periods of economic expansion.
So far, we’ve been looking at labor market metrics that reflect the past and the present. But what about the future?
Based on job openings data, it’s pretty clear that the demand for more labor continues to be very strong.
According to BLS data released Wednesday, there was a whopping 11.25 million job openings in May. That compares to the 5.95 million unemployed during the same period.
With nearly two job openings per unemployed person, this is a very tight labor market with a lot of demand for workers.
Why this is not a recession
“In recent decades, the two measures we have put the most weight on are real personal income less transfers and nonfarm payroll employment,” the NBER explained regarding its recession calls.
Indeed, according to Deutsche Bank’s analysis of recessions since 1939, the first month of a recession on average sees a decline in jobs. And we haven’t seen a decline in jobs since December 2020.
Regarding real personal income less transfers, that metric also continues be very strong. According to BEA data released June 30, it climbed to a record annualized rate of $14.5 trillion in May.
The BLS also has a metric called the index of aggregate weekly payrolls, which is the product of jobs, wages, and hours worked. It’s a rough proxy for the total nominal spending capacity of the workforce. This metric increased by 0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} month-over-month in June to a record high of 172.4, reflecting a 9.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} jump from a year ago. Before the pandemic, the annual growth rate was trending at around 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.
On an encouraging note regarding inflationary pressures, average hourly earnings in June increased by just 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from May. This reflects a 5.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} gain from a year ago, which is down from 5.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in May, 5.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in April, and 5.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in March.³
For now, the strong labor market is keeping the economy from tipping into a recession. But the longer the Fed has to tighten monetary policy aggressively, the more likely it becomes that people start to lose jobs as part of the economic pain required to rein in prices.
📈 Stocks climb: The S&P 500 rose 1.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} last week to close at 3,899.38. The index is now down 18.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its January 3 closing high of 4,796.56 and up 6.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its June 16 closing low of 3,666.77. For more on market volatility, read this and this. If you wanna read up on bear markets, read this and this.
As I wrote last month, it appears that the markets will be held hostage by the Fed as long as inflation isn’t showing “clear and convincing” signs of easing. Read more about this here and here.
⛓ Supply chains are loosening: The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index4 fell in June to its lowest level since March 2021, meaning supply chains are loosening.
(Source: The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. (Source: NY Fed)
⛽️ Gas prices are falling: According to AAA, the average price of a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline was $4.684 on Sunday, down from $4.812 a week ago. Prices touched a record high of $5.016 on June 14.
Next week 🛣
Earnings season kicks off this week as the nation’s biggest banks announcing their Q2 financial results. JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley announce on Thursday morning. Citi, Wells Fargo, PNC, U.S. Bancorp, and BlackRock announce on Friday morning. Investors will be listening carefully to see how business has performed as the economy cooled and as interest rates rose.
It’s also a busy week for economic data. Wednesday comes with the June consumer price index report, followed by the June producer price index report on Thursday. On Friday, we’ll get the June retail sales report, June industrial production report, and the preliminary July consumer sentiment survey results from the University of Michigan.
1. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months. The committee’s view is that while each of the three criteria—depth, diffusion, and duration—needs to be met individually to some degree, extreme conditions revealed by one criterion may partially offset weaker indications from another… The determination of the months of peaks and troughs is based on a range of monthly measures of aggregate real economic activity published by the federal statistical agencies. These include real personal income less transfers (PILT), nonfarm payroll employment, real personal consumption expenditures, wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes, employment as measured by the household survey, and industrial production. There is no fixed rule about what measures contribute information to the process or how they are weighted in our decisions.”
2. One widely known criticism of the GDP calculation is that net imports are a negative. In other words, if the U.S. economy is relatively stronger than international economies and that’s causing imports to outpace exports, then GDP suffers.
3. Fed chair Jerome Powell argued that one of the main forces driving up inflation was rising wages. The theory is that higher wages enable businesses to raise prices. If wages aren’t rising, then consumers wouldn’t be able to pay up for higher prices, which leads to a combination of demand cooling and prices coming down.
4. Here’s some info on how the index is constructed according to the NY Fed: “We use the following subcomponents of the country-specific manufacturing PMIs: ‘delivery time,’ which captures the extent to which supply chain delays in the economy impact producers—a variable that may be viewed as identifying a purely supply-side constraint; ‘backlogs,’ which quantifies the volume of orders that firms have received but have yet to either start working on or complete; and, finally, ‘purchased stocks,’ which measures the extent of inventory accumulation by firms in the economy. Note that in case of the U.S., the PMI data start only in 2007, so for the U.S. we combine the PMI data with those from the manufacturing survey of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).“
This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe
Friday, June 3, 2022
Today’s newsletter is by Myles Udland, senior markets editor at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @MylesUdland and on LinkedIn.
The May jobs report will drop in a few hours — or will have dropped a few hours ago, depending on when you check your inbox — and investors will be watching closely.
But this report is also likely to usher in an updated version of some of the most convoluted market analysis that investors accept as normal — is “good news bad news” is “bad news good news” or is “good news good news”?
And although this framework sounds, in many ways, too clever by half, asking if “good news is bad news” is just another way to get at the question posed to investors by all jobs reports: What does this data mean for the Fed?
U.S. President Joe Biden (C) meets with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, in the Oval Office at the White House on May 31, 2022 in Washington, DC.(Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
“Good news” in the case of the May jobs report would be another month of job gains rising more than expected by economists, wage growth remaining robust, and the unemployment rate falling further.
Data from Bloomberg show economists expect there were 323,000 jobs created last month with the unemployment rate expected to fall to 3.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.
So there’s your bogey on a report that counts as “good” or not.
But why would a “good” report be “bad news” for the market? Because another strong jobs report would likely keep the Fed’s future plans intact. And what’s more, a report that’s better than merely good could prompt the Fed to be even more aggressive in the coming months.
All of which means the table is set for a full summer of conversation about what economic data constitutes good news or bad news for investors.
The simplest way to describe the Fed’s policy stance right now is “tightening” — the central bank is raising the cost to borrow money in an effort to slow inflation. For financial assets like stocks and bonds, these tightening cycles are challenging. Just look at the stock market so far this year.
To tighten policy, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates and beginning so-called “quantitative tightening,” which will see the Fed’s balance sheet shrink over time as some holdings mature.
And while inflation has many causes, part of what’s driving higher prices is a stronger labor market. By tightening financial conditions, Fed officials hope, in part, to slow the labor market.
In recent months, robust demand for labor from businesses has enabled more workers to command higher pay, and higher pay means more spending power for consumers. And more spending power has, in turn, meant upward pressure on prices, which has pushed the Fed to embark on aggressive moves to raise interest rates. Good news turning into bad.
Asked at a press conference last month whether the Fed believes it can slow hiring without tipping the economy into recession, Fed Chair Jay Powell said, “There’s a path.”
Powell added, among other things, that a measure he’d like to see moderate is the number of open jobs per unemployed worker; data out earlier this week showed a decline in the number of open jobs at the end of the April.
This need to slow the labor market was also echoed by President Joe Biden earlier this week. In an op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, Biden wrote that if hiring slowed to 150,000 jobs per month from the current pace of 500,000 new jobs each month, “it will be a sign that we are successfully moving into the next phase of recovery — as this kind of job growth is consistent with a low unemployment rate and a healthy economy.”
Or, said differently, a return to an economy where good news for workers can be good news for investors.
What to Watch Today
Economy
8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, May (323,000 expected, 428,000 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Private Payrolls, May (302,000 expected, 406,000 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, May (39,000 expected, 55,000 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Unemployment Rate, May (3.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 3.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, May (0.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, May (5.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 5.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, May (34.6 expected, 34.6 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Labor Force Participation Rate, May (62.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 62.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Underemployment Rate, May (7.0{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} prior month)
9:45 a.m. ET: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, May final (53.5 expected, 53.5 during prior month)
9:45 a.m. ET: S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, May final (53.8 expected, 53.8 during prior month)
10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services Index, May (56.5 expected, 57.1 during prior month)
Earnings
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