Stocks end week lower amid earnings, strong economic data: Stock market news today

Stocks end week lower amid earnings, strong economic data: Stock market news today

Shares closed a little larger on Friday afternoon as traders digested a last slate of company earnings and clean financial details to close out the week.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose .09{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Common (^DJI) rose 23.99 points, or .07{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The know-how-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) rose .11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

All 3 key averages shut the 7 days reduce. The Dow had its worst week in 6 months, snapping a 4-7 days acquire streak.

The S&P Global’s flash studying on the U.S. Manufacturing Price tag Index came in hotter than economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected on Friday. Solutions PMI hit a 12-month substantial at 53.7, when . Production PMI strike a six-thirty day period higher of 50.4. Economists experienced approximated Companies PMI at 51.5 and Production PMI at 49, for every Bloomberg consensus knowledge.

The report difficulties the narrative that storm clouds are brewing in the US overall economy.

“Output rose at the sharpest pace for pretty much a yr, as more robust demand situations, bettering offer and a steeper uptick in new orders supported the enlargement,” S&P World wide wrote in the release. “Strong growth in action was viewed throughout the two the producing and assistance sectors.”

The earnings onslaught slowed marginally on Friday morning, with consumer staples big Procter & Gamble (PG) reporting. Shares of Procter & Gamble rose 3.45{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} as the organization lifted its forecast for 2023 natural revenue development to 6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, up from a prior steerage of 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

P&G chairman and CEO Jon Moeller instructed Yahoo Finance his business is just not observing any signs of a recession based mostly on shopper behavior.

“We are observing if something, additional careful usage of the products that they have bought,” Moeller reported. “So they could use a 50 percent a sheet of Bounty paper towel as opposed to a full sheet.”

Somewhere else in earnings, mining enterprise Freeport-McMoran (FCX) fell 4.10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, its worst intraday general performance in over a thirty day period, as copper manufacturing declined for the quarter. Shares of SAP (SAP) popped nearly 6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} as the company topped estimates for revenue and earnings for each share while teasing out ChatGPT integration.

“We are receiving a good deal of blended indications sort the several businesses reporting, even types inside the very same marketplace,” Thomas Martin, GLOBALT Investments Senior Portfolio Supervisor advised Yahoo Finance Reside. “I am fearful we’ll have to wait around for an additional quarter or two ahead of we really get definitive data one particular way or the other.”

Amazon (AMZN) inventory rose 3.03{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} following a report Thursday afternoon that Complete Foods programs to slash quite a few hundred corporate jobs as section of a reorganization.

Oil futures were being around the flatline on Friday with West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) growing much less than 1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in early investing. Brent Crude charges sat just below $82 a barrel.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester instructed Yahoo Finance on Thursday that curiosity prices have to have to increase higher than 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} presented stubborn inflation. The responses arrived two days ahead of Federal Reserve contributors enter their blackout interval prior to the up coming FOMC conference on Might 2.

Marketplaces are at the moment pricing in an 84{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} possibility of 25-foundation-issue charge hike at the upcoming FOMC assembly, according to data from the CME team.

With the Fed in its peaceful interval, current market concentrate will transform to major tech earnings upcoming week. Apple (AAPL) Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta (META) are all set to report initial quarter benefits. On the economic entrance, the very first search how the overall health of the U.S. financial state in 2023 is expected, with the initial initially quarter GDP report predicted on Thursday.

Through Friday, 18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of S&P 500 businesses have documented first quarter success, with combination earnings of 5.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} coming in beneath the 5 (8.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) and ten-year (6.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) averages, in accordance to Factset.

Josh is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Simply click here for the latest stock current market news and in-depth assessment, which includes situations that move stocks

Read through the most recent economic and business enterprise news from Yahoo Finance

Bond-market’s most deeply inverted gauge is pointing to ‘large slowdown in economic growth’ and ‘deep recession’

Bond-market’s most deeply inverted gauge is pointing to ‘large slowdown in economic growth’ and ‘deep recession’

The most deeply inverted section of the U.S. produce curve is a single that hasn’t despatched a bogus sign about the prospective clients of a U.S. economic downturn in extra than a 50 {21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}-century of exploration.

That’s the distribute amongst 10-12 months and 3-thirty day period Treasury yields, which was all over 155.8 foundation factors below zero as of Wednesday — reflecting a 3-month T-bill price
TMUBMUSD03M,
4.807{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
that’s investing nicely earlier mentioned its 10-year counterpart
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.306{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.
The substantial distinction involving the two prices is pointing to the likelihood of a “deep recession,” according to Campbell Harvey, the Duke University professor who pioneered the use of the spread as an indicator of potential financial advancement.

Economic downturn fears are back again in target right after this week’s info presented new evidence that the Federal Reserve’s yearlong rate-hike cycle is eventually acquiring an impression on the labor market. Whilst bond-marketplace volatility has trended decreased about the previous 3 weeks, liquidity challenges and fears about a prospective U.S. debt-ceiling crisis continue on to plague Treasurys and exacerbate the market’s moves, according to Tom di Galoma, controlling director and co-head of charges investing for monetary expert services organization BTIG. The 10-12 months/3-thirty day period distribute is more under zero than it was in the operate-up to the 2007 -2008 economical crisis and in the late 1980s, when the Federal Reserve pushed fascination rates back previously mentioned 8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

10-yr minus 3-month produce distribute as of April 4. Shaded locations show U.S. recessions.


Supply: Federal Reserve Financial institution of St. Louis

The measurement of the latest 10-yr/3-month inversion relative to where yields at present stand “is putting and amounts to a significant, really serious inversion,” Harvey explained by way of telephone on Wednesday. “The magnitude of the inversion can be instantly linked to a large slowdown in financial growth, and the model is predicting a deep recession.”

The unfold — which typically provides advance warning of a recession of any place from six to 18 months — initial fell under zero in Oct. In the beginning, Harvey held out hope that the U.S. could stay clear of a downturn. Past December, he explained to MarketWatch that the gauge — which hadn’t been inverted long sufficient at the time to send a definitive statement — may well be sending a “false signal” and that the likelihood of a smooth landing was additional possible.

That was in advance of the Federal Reserve hiked fees yet again in February and March, and the banking system more and more turned the channel by which the Treasury-curve inversion performed out in general public. Now policy makers have “gone way too considerably and are enjoying with hearth,” Harvey reported.  

The curve is a line that plots the variations in yields throughout all credit card debt maturities. It normally slopes upward, with buyers demanding a top quality to compensate for dangers that can establish above time. A flatter curve can sign considerations about the financial outlook. An inverted curve, in which quick-dated yields rise above longer-dated yields, is a warning sign.

The inversion of the Treasury curve issues for a selection of causes. One particular of them is that it is upended the enterprise design employed by banking institutions, which make dollars by lending at bigger costs around the lengthier expression than they shell out borrowers for their deposits. An inverted produce curve helped sink California’s Silicon Valley Financial institution in March. “I have no plan how quite a few a lot more banking institutions the Fed has put at threat, but I undoubtedly hope they [policy makers] do,” Harvey said.

On Wednesday, Treasury yields completed generally reduce following weaker-than-anticipated private-sector career gains for March extra to concerns about a softening labor current market. In the meantime, important U.S. inventory indexes
DJIA,
+.24{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

SPX,
-.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

COMP,
-1.07{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
also finished mostly reduced.

At Academy Securities in San Diego, David Gagnon, controlling director and head of U.S. Treasury trading, stated the money industry seems to be weighing two sets of “extreme situations.”

“For bonds, there’s a possibility that the economic climate will get caught in a recession,” Gagnon stated by means of cell phone. “Stocks are not much too nervous about the Fed obtaining to reverse training course in a economic downturn, and are in its place concerned that the economy does not go into recession,” leaving policy makers to continue to keep mountaineering premiums.

A modest part of the inversion in the 10-yr/3-month unfold is owing to technological components relating to supply imbalances, illiquidity, and concerns about the credit card debt ceiling, he said. The rest has to do with the bond market place “pricing in the threats of a hard landing and the Fed acquiring to answer aggressively.”

On-Demand: Wealth Management Economic Impact Webinar Series

On-Demand: Wealth Management Economic Impact Webinar Series

I’ve been here at EisnerAmper Wealth Management for 22 years and I am a certified business exit consultant. I’ll ask Hal to give us a little bit of his background before I get into the content.

Hal Michels: 

Thank you Onofrio. Good afternoon everyone. I’m Hal Michaels, I am a partner at Eisner Advisory Group. I am also a wealth advisor at EisnerAmper Wealth Management. I’ve spent my entire career, which unfortunately is going beyond 40 years, servicing closely held businesses, both family, non-family, and I have my Emerson taxation and looking forward to sharing my thoughts and experiences with me today.

Onofrio Cirianni:      Thanks Hal.

So it takes years, sometimes decades to start a business, grow a business, and you may only have one opportunity to exit whatever that exit may be. So our hope today is touching on some concepts, sharing some ideas, practical advice that you can take regardless of whatever stage you are in your business. We have an abundance of experience just between how and myself and the resources within EisnerAmper and organizations that we both belong to that specialize in this space. We have a pretty broad audience. There are people here that probably are just setting up a company. There may be those that are in the growth stage and then there’s others that want to get out of the business maybe yesterday and are ready for some form of exit or transition.

We’re going to make some comments and again, a lot of these are going to be general and we’ll try to break them down so that you can identify with some of the comments and some of the tools that we’ll share with you where you fall in regards to whether it be your industry or as well as the size of your business. So just a brief overview of what we’re going to cover is why have a succession plan? What does that mean?

We’ll get into some basic steps to create an optimal transition plan. We’re going to talk a lot about not just financial readiness, but you’ll hear throughout our presentation comments on getting mentally ready before, during, and after a transition. Valuation methods, why do you have valuation methods? What’s the purpose? Hal’s going to dive deeper into buy sell agreements. What are they? Why should you have one? And then we’ll talk about when is the right time to exit and giving you some recent data in regards to market conditions and how that may affect you and your business. And then as always, what are the tax considerations in advance that you can plan for to make it as most tax efficient as possible for you and all parties involved? And then we’ll kind of wrap it up.

Astrid Garcia:  Polling Question #2.

Onofrio Cirianni:  Thank you.

So why have a succession plan? There’s a lot of activity that’s happening and part of it has to do with demographics. So as an example, in 2021 there were 32.5 million small businesses under 500 employees and more than half of them have owners that are above age 55. So this is do in part a lot because of the baby boomers looking at maybe that next stage of their life more than a third of them plan to fund their retirement or a portion of it by the actual liquidity event or selling of the business. And more than half of them don’t have a buyer lined up at that point in time.

And the overwhelming majority, and we could definitely see this in our day-to-day practice, almost 80{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} don’t have an actual written plan. There may be some concepts and ideas and discussions along the way with advisors but not a real formal plan. So what do we see in terms of owner mindset? I would say most business owners are really good at what they do, developing great businesses that build value, that generate income, that provide products and services to attract many happy customers. But like many businesses, you get caught up working in the business versus actually working on the business. So we always are reminding our clients and those who we meet with to take a step back and pause so that we’re always concentrating on throughout the process wherever they are in their stage of their business, is to look at the business and have an end game. We always say begin with the end in mind regardless of whatever stage you are in the business.

95{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} based on some studies, I’m a member of the International Association of Exit Planners. It’s a great think tank made up of exit planners and advisors from all different disciplines and we’re constantly doing studies which I’ll share throughout our presentation today is most business owners are focusing on the growth and we refer to the segment wall and we refer to other items such as value drivers. So there’s a lot of different elements of the business that are going to increase value. These value drivers actually are measurable. It’s almost taken like a stress test of the business.

There’s 20 to 25 different value drivers and we’ll touch on some of those today to identify basically your strengths, weaknesses and opportunities. Again, not just to grow the business, but ultimately what’s going to give you the most value, which ties into short term versus long term. And I think this is what keeps a lot of business owners up at night is valuation, the day-to-day challenges. We’ve seen a lot of new day-to-day challenges over the last three years as a result of COVID and shutdowns and different economic impact in the changing workforce. So what are some of the valuation and exit issues? Cash flow, again, cash flows king typically looking at how to increase revenue independent of increasing value. Those may not always be parallel. Transparency in the business operations investment, is that investment going to increase sales for the next two to three years or is it going to increase value for the long term when there’s an ultimate exit.

Interest financing. Again, we’ll touch on that with the spike up and interest rates over the last year and how that’s impacting. We’ll share some data with you and also looking at different areas of risk. And risk is broad in many senses and we refer to the octopus owner, how many things do does the business owner, if there’s more than one owner touch every day, are they heavily involved at the high level or are they getting heavily involved in, I’m going to say more in the micro level. So one of the concepts we refer to as owner dependency, can the business operate without the owner? And what we’ve seen with many transactions and valuation methods is the business that can operate without the owner typically has the most value, the least amount of risk, and hopefully it really benefits all parties, the owner themselves, where they’ve already started separating from the business in many respects and having a smooth transition personally for the next stage of their life.

So just some examples in terms of the octopus owner, there’s many elements within the business and one of the things going through a process with businesses again, which can take years or decades up to the ultimate exit, is looking at what’s the unique ability of the business owner? What is the owner really, really good at? And again, this’ll be affected by the size of the business as well and the industry.

And if we can start over time looking at those core values, those elements of the business here that the owner can actually delegate and give up control and give some others ownership within the business, key people within the organization that may stick around most likely when the business owner actually exits. I would say one area here that we find maybe the most common is the typical entrepreneur is really good in sales and business development, generating revenue, building those relationships that may have started small but has grown across maybe the entire business enterprise and we try to look at the business owner and try to shift from being maybe that chief sales officer to the chief executive officer and again, that #takes preparation, planning and definitely some time.

So just some statistics from the owner dependence index. Again, this is a tool where business owners can actually input a lot of data about themselves and their business and historically over half of the business is really dependent on the owner. So I go back to that octopus owner. More than half of those essential elements and core values of the business is really controlled by the business owner and maybe not delegated to others. So again, going through some of these exercises which we can share with you, you can see this has been pretty consistent in terms of this study. I’ve seen this study probably for the last five or six years in a row and the needle really has been somewhere around the 50 to 55{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} range.

We also have to look at the size and complexity of the business. Having a conversation, looking at your own business if you’re just one owner versus multiple owners versus maybe dozens of owners with investors is a whole different conversation and there’s going to be concentration on whether there’s going to be continuation of management if you’re a one owner, I’m going to say that is a common element and maybe even more so over the course of the last six to 12 months with the changing market conditions where buyers are looking for continuity with management and having that transferrable transfer of relationships and understanding the business.

So the approach for business planning and business succession and exit planning as it gets more complex as we move up the ranks and there’s multiple owners is having a foundation and certain documents in place like an operating agreement and essential elements in a buy sell agreement because now it’s just not one individual. It may involve multiple individuals, some of which may be related if it’s a family business or you might have investors versus getting to the high complex business maybe into the middle or upper end of the middle market where the shift is more to employees management as well as personal planning and what that means to the business owner themselves.

So there’s three stages of planning. First being protect the business and we like to start off with this to look at what are the elements of risk and that protection could be everything from liability risk, which we’ll touch on structure of your business, what type of entity you are, how is the business insured, what if the owner dies prematurely, becomes disabled, lawsuits, et cetera and so on. Cyber happens to be a big one that we’re seeing really across all industries, small, medium and large growth in the business. What are some of those core values, some of those core elements of the business and where are their weaknesses? Do you have a high concentration of customer, just a few customers or is your revenue really spread out where losing one or two customers is really not going to impact the top line or the bottom line?

There are a lot of consultants in this space, not just internally within our group or EisnerAmper, there’s a lot of industry niche specialists in this area that can identify where you are as far as your core value and where there’s opportunities for improvement and then how will you exit the business. It’s a much different approach if you are going to keep the business within the family. If it’s a closely held family business, that’s probably going to focus a lot more on estate planning and wealth transfer techniques. So that generation number one who exits has a nice sunset into retirement, can still live a nice lifestyle and is not risking that into the future.

At the same token, focusing on how’s that next generation going to step in, what does it mean to them from a tax standpoint, from a structural standpoint as well versus a business owner that may want to grow the business and sell to a professional buyer like private equity, it’s a whole different conversation and needs all sorts of planning in advance. Your buyers are going to be real pros and professionals here. So we always refer to building a planning team and a deal team when you’re sitting across folks that do this every day or you may even have an exit where your key people or your employees might buy the business, whether it be management or through an ESOP. Again, lot of different paths, it’s almost like going through a process of elimination over time to determine which one is most appropriate for you.

So we refer to the doors of expertise around here a lot helping clients live the life they want to live. There is not going to be one professional that’s going to be able to help you with all facets in preparation of protecting, growing and exiting or transitioning your business. It will take a team of professionals. Again, we refer to it as a planning team and it may actually transition more into a deal team where different expertise may come into play depending on the ultimate exit plan and things in terms of background and disciplines, whether it be a CPA, an attorney, a mergers and acquisition type specialist, an exit planner, a financial advisor, financial planner, insurance professionals, again, depending on the size, complexity and stage in the business, generally speaking, it takes collaboration amongst all really to get the optimal plan and exit on your terms.

So one big question that comes out typically revolves around is a business owner financially ready. I’m going to oversimplify this a little bit for our discussion today. We refer to is the money enough in terms of how much assets you have versus how much assets you’ll get in terms of a sale by adding the two, is that enough capital to support your lifestyle for the rest of your life, net after tax and fees of selling your business or transitioning the business. If it’s not enough we refer to that as the value gap and I think a lot of folks focus on the financial aspect the most, but there’s been dozens of studies done over the last 15 years, thousands of business owners involved in these studies over time where it’s measuring not just their financial readiness but are they mentally prepared. So there’s an exercise called the business exit readiness index.

You answer like 25 questions, we’d be glad to share this with you. It’s for free and it generates like a nice report. It’s not a solution based exercise. It’s really a good exercise to kind of look at how you’re answering these questions. There’s some behavioral finance and science behind it and it gives you an output based on how you answer those questions of what category you might fall into at this point in time. And generally speaking, I will say that most people, even if they’re financially ready, the overwhelming majority of the results weigh towards most business owners are not mentally ready. So they may have the value of a business that they can sell and leave tomorrow, but they’re not prepared to, whether it be relationships, what does the next stage of life look like, et cetera and so on. Different dynamics that come into play here. It’s actually an excellent way to maybe start the process.

When we look at having an optimal transition, we look at basically five steps. First and foremost is determining the business owner or owners’, personal and professional long-term goals and objectives. It starts there. That’s the foundation and it’s not mentioned, but I’ll add if there’s a spouse, significant other or a partner in the business owner’s life, they should be equally involved in this initial discussion is really to understand what is really important to you as a couple, as a family and what do you want to accomplish down the road.

It will definitely create the foundation getting into the business aspects. We then get into financial requirements. What is the value gap if there is one in achieving that transition? Is it going to be enough? Are you going to be confident living a long life and enjoying it? Identifying and developing a management team key, it can’t be just that octopus owner, business owner by themselves. It’s having a deeper bench and a business that can run post-sale or post-transition. Determining what path you want to go down, what kind of transition you will be, who will be the ultimate owner. And as always is efficiency, minimizing taxes, preparing an estate plan, those definitely intersect. I’m going to pass it on to my partner Hal and he’ll pick it up from here.

Hal Michels:Yeah. So who will buy an interest in your closely held business? Onofrio mentioned all these entities or people, the partner, business entity itself, key employees and family members. They’re all internal as opposed to the third party buyer. And as Onofrio mentioned with the third party buyer, that’s where you’re going to bring your deal team in. You’re going to negotiate. Market conditions will really reflect what comes out of it. As in terms of the other entities they’re internal that you’re going to have to determine the value, the terms, the funding with either your partners or your key employees and that’s where we kind of move to the buy-sell agreement and basically there are two main types of agreements that apply to closely held businesses. You have your governance agreement, which could be a shareholders agreement, a partner agreement, a member’s agreement depending on the type of entity in which we’re dealing with.

That sets forth the governance of the organization. And then you have your buy sell agreement which really deals with liquidity events, sets the valuation, sets the terms, sets the conditions, sets the funding. Oftentimes the buy-sell agreement is part of a shareholder’s agreement. It could be a separate document as well. I have no particular preference in that regard. Usually the attorneys will determine whether or not it’s one agreement or two. And the liquidity events and we’ll get to a little bit further on are retirement, disability, death and potential buy-in by either a key employee or additional acquisition of current members.

The buy-sell agreement is referred to in the last stages as the buyer’s will, it’ll establish value, it’ll establish how money is to be made available for purposes of the buyout and it does reduce conflict upfront. Absent of buy sell agreement, absent of governance agreement if there is an unfortunate event, that’s when turmoil results. So if you take the time and create a well thought out governance agreement and buy-sell agreement, it takes all those stresses away when retirement occurs as you get closer to retirement, when a key employee needs to be brought in and given a piece of the equity. These are all essential pieces of the agreements and like I said before, the shareholders agreement or the governance agreement and the buy-sell agreements work hand in hand.

Sorry about that. Transfer restrictions as referred to are usually you’ll see in the governance agreement. Typically they’re not in the buy-sell agreement. As I said before, the governance agreement really dictates how the organization run and how the shareholders interact and you’ll see restrictions and conditions set forth in the governance agreement, not particularly in the buy sell agreement.

The advantages to owners in my experience, there are many challenges that exist with closely held businesses that are separate and apart from the operation of the business. Well thought out shareholders agreements, buy-sell agreements really provide for a footprint of how the business is going to go forward, both from a succession point of view, from a management point of view, it creates stability and allows for an owner to understand where his future is going to be and more importantly how the next generation is going to interact and progress, whether that be family, children, grandchildren or key employees.

Again, we talked about liquidity events that are going to be governed by the buy-sell agreement. To the right of your screen you’ll see it refers to voluntary and they’re really not going to be governed by your buy-sell agreement. They’re really third party type of situations that really are negotiated. The key issues in your buy-sell agreement is going to be death, disability, retirement. They’re all unique in how they’re going dealt with. Death is probably the easiest to deal with. It’s there’s a certainty with it. It can be funded by insurance and I happen to come from a partnership where we had good buy sell agreements and we funded them with life insurance and unfortunately we had a partner pass away, but fortunately we had insurance, his estate, his family were taking care of him and we were able to move forward with our business.

Disability is probably the most difficult liquidity event to deal with and that’s because you have to define it, which is sometimes not easy and insurance is very expensive, not as easy to get as with life insurance. Retirement is a combination of the two. You need liquidity, you need cash flow or you need to be able to have funded for that over the life of the business. The other events, termination without cause, deadlock, divorce, resignation with good reason, change of control are typically defined in the shareholder’s agreement and not usually addressed in the buy-sell agreement

As we spoke, key employees are oftentimes the next generation. There may not be family and in my experience I’ve had a lot of entrepreneurs who have started a business and really made a lot of money while they were conducting the business and they were really more concerned with the legacy of the business going forward and spent a lot of time with management with key employees with that mind. They’re not necessarily interested in maximizing their value on the way out. And so in that situation, the buy sell agreement may provide for discounted values, may be based on book value, may provide favorable terms to the employee committee, may provide bank loans that the business guarantees, but what really is driving that mentality is legacy as opposed to optimization of value.

Astrid Garcia:  Polling Question #3.

Hal Michels: Valuation is a key element obviously of the buy-sell agreement and it’s fluid and as I mentioned previously, it depends on whether or not owners want to maximize their value, which goes to what Onofrio spoke about a little bit earlier. Is there a valuation gap or whether or not it’s legacy is the prime motive of the owners and valuation is in the eyes of the beholder, especially when it’s internal. My preference is to meet with my clients and to review the valuation that’s in the buy-sell agreement on an annual basis. Typically, I’d like to come up with a formula or some concept which we’re going to implement and then be able to utilize that every year to update the buy update, the buy-sell agreement. Sometimes we change the value, sometimes we leave it as it is. But what’s important, it is a motivator to have an annual meeting to review the financial statements and to understand and reflect on whether or not the valuation that’s in the agreement is appropriate, whether there’s a need for more life insurance, whether there’s a need to change in our condition of the business.

As I stated before, there are many different ways to value a business. As I said, I find coming up with a formula that makes sense that we can apply on an annual basis is the most realistic, most flexible method to use it. It’s certainly less expensive than getting an appraisal every year or every so often. Although if it’s a family owned business and there’s gifting involved, there’s going to be a need for appraisals. When they’re independent unrelated parties, the IRS will accept valuations. But again, if there’s gifting, if it’s family involved, then in order to legitimize that valuation there’s going to be a need for appraisals.

There are really two types of buy-sell agreements, cross purchase and redemption agreement or an entity purchase. An entity purchase or redemption agreement is just that, the entity acquires the interest of the owners. It’s simple and as opposed to a cross purchase, which is where the owners agreed to buy each other’s and sell each other’s shares. More complicated, especially if there’s more than two owners. However, the tax benefits to a cross purchase agreement are significant.

The acquirer of the shares gets a stepped up in their tax basis, which depending on the underlying assets in the business may be able to be depreciated or amortized on a current basis. And oftentimes we’ll use an escrow agent or trustee when they’re multiple owners to facilitate the exchanging of shares, the reissuing with shares and the collection and disbursement of money. But my preference is certainly cross purchase agreement cause the tax benefits are significant. Again, we touched a lot lot on this and where we mentioned life insurance. Again, if we use a trustee, if we use an escrow agent, if the escrow agent collects the proceeds or the death benefit and distributes them according to the shareholder’s agreement and/or the buy sell agreement. Here’s a comparison I articulated. Again, the entity purchase is simple, but my advice and my preference is a cross purchase agreement for all those reasons.

Onofrio Cirianni: All right, thank you Hal.

Hal Michels: Okay, Onofrio.

Onofrio Cirianni: So we’re going to switch gears a little bit and there’s a lot of questions coming in from our viewers here in regards to market conditions. So I’m going to give you a little background in regards to what’s happened over the last few years and touch on a little bit about what’s happening in the last maybe week based on some recent data.

So 2021 by far was the perfect storm for owners exiting their business. And I was going to say there’s three main elements. Number one COVID and depending on what industry you’re in, with the rising revenue and growth of certain businesses and industries based on demand, the multiples and EBITDA calculations were very high. There was also pending tax proposals from the Biden administration and Congress, which was a big motivator in regards to capital gains treatment potentially that was going to change the net proceeds to a business sale, which ultimately ended up getting declined. And then just the overall demographics of aging boomers. There’s just so many business owners that are looking for transition.

Astrid Garcia:  Polling Question #4.

Onofrio Cirianni: While we’re waiting-

I was going to say while we’re waiting for the polling results, a lot of questions are come in, we’d like to try to address a few of them along the way with the time that we have. One of the questions was, what are some of the biggest challenges with a family business versus other businesses with transition? My experience has been, and Hal can add, is family dynamics. There’s relationships involved and I always say that you want a great transition and get good results, but keeping family harmony involves patience and potentially other professionals with different skill sets at the table to help. I joke we say that we wish we took more psychology classes in addition to finance and accounting, so it was too late to go back to school to be an expert there. But we actually do have organizational psychologists as a part of our team here at EisnerAmper that help us through this process.

Astrid Garcia:  I will now be closing the polling question. Please make sure you have submitted your answer. Back to you.

Onofrio Cirianni: So what happened in the past year? There was definitely a shift, some movement in midterm elections which can impact maybe legislation, regulatory issues, the war in Ukraine, and then I would say inflation and rising interest rates a big spike after a prolonged period of a low interest rate environment. So here’s a chart going back to 1950. We say pictures say a lot and there has been a pretty big spike in interest rates in the last year, which is impacting certain segments of the market. However, if you just put it into perspective, we’re still relatively low to moderate in regards to where interest rates are or the cost of money in terms of raising capital, whether it be in a transaction or to grow your business.

Astrid Garcia:   Polling Question #5.

Onofrio Cirianni: So I’d like to share with you a little bit of history based on actual data. It’s looking at time periods where exits transitions within businesses were at peak times where there was actually recessions and there was less transition happening. And then periods where there’s uncertainty. So I think the ultimate goal for most business owners is to grow their business, increase the value, and if it can get to that optimal position where you have everything prepared, almost like preparing to sell a house, everything is beautifully manicured and ready to go to sale, that it happens to be in the best market conditions as well.

As we know, that would be almost impossible for both of those to occur at the same time. So market conditions actually will impact ultimately the multiples or what the structure of that business sale may be. I would say based on just recent studies in the last few months that I think consensus is that we’re kind of leaning towards that far right. It’s that uncertainty. Are we in a recession? We’re in a kind of strange period where inflation is going up and there’s different economic pressures, but we’re in a really low unemployment rate and the demand for businesses is really high, getting talent.

There’s also definitely different things happening in the different segments of the market based on size and just general comment, what we’re seeing in the recent, particularly with the rise in interest rates, that’s affecting for the most part the middle market, and I’m going to say the upper end of the middle market. Just based on the structure of a lot of deals if they’re financed with debt, whether it be senior debt or mezzanine debt, there’s different levels of debt, particularly for smaller businesses, it’s not as impactful as it is in that middle market.

Here’s a slide just giving you a sense of what’s happened in terms of size of businesses and what’s happened over the last few years. This goes through the end of the third quarter and if you look at the chart, larger businesses, you can see where there was definitely a spike, which peaked in the third quarter of last year where multiples as high as 10.5. So although some of the other trends in terms of interest rates, the economy and things that were mentioned in this presentation, there’s been a little bit of a flattening out or maybe even a downward trend.

The biggest change has really been in the upper end of the deal size. So timelines of selling a business, this comes up a lot with clients, especially if it’s the first time they’ve done this. We want to make sure that there’s a methodical approach and manage expectations. I think buyers want to do that and we as advisors try to guide our clients. Typically it is over a 12 month period and again, as I mentioned before, having the right planning team and deal team in place so that every stage of that sales process is met.

We definitely see some headwinds and I know a lot of questions that have been coming in about interest rate hikes and even what’s happened over the last few weeks. If you look at this chart, and again, this chart was through the third quarter and there’s some stats even through the fourth quarter, interest rates, economic disruption, the war, politics, they do have an impact, not a big impact. It’s really at the upper end. The biggest challenges today are labor shortages, supply chains, depending on the nature of the industry getting cost of goods or raw materials.

The best businesses are selling in good markets and in bad markets. But when market conditions change, as we’ve seen over the last 12 months, one of the shifts that we’re seeing is the structures of the deals, maybe less cash, maybe you’re getting more equity where maybe owners were walking away from the business after a transaction, they’re asked to stay longer. Maybe there’s an earn out, which historically has always been the case. Over 80{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of transactions typically ask owners to stay on board longer. But those B+ or B- rated companies, the multiples are going down and the structures of the deals are changing. And these three factors are definitely the biggest impact more so than interest rate changes.

I’m going to pass it on to Hal for the remaining part of our presentation.

Hal Michels:   We don’t have a lot of time left. I could spend eight hours talking about the tax considerations because it’s critical, right? It’s a very significant part of the economics and I’ve seen deals fall apart because of poor tax planning. And it starts with the entity structure. It’s really important to understand what your objectives are when you choose your entity. For example, here’s section 1202 in the internal revenue code is small business stock. If your business is under $50 million and you acquire your capital at issuance, it’s possible to eliminate all or most of any gain. There are requirements, the entity has to be a C corp. It can’t basically be a professional service organization. So we don’t see it a lot. But if your objective when you start your business is, and it’s in the right industry and it’s the right size and you think you’re going to sell it in a relatively short period of time, it’s got to go longer than five years, then you need to consider a being a C corp and qualifying is a small business corp.

If you don’t go that way and most businesses do not, you’re really looking for a entity, an S corp, limited liability, company taxes, a partnership. And that really is to avoid double taxation again, which is very significant. I could spend a lot of time on that. We don’t have, but you have to understand that. You have to understand what double taxation means and how to avoid it. And I think a very important concept is that sellers and buyers are inherently at a conflict when it comes to tax considerations. A buyer wants to buy assets so we can depreciate those assets and write them off and a seller wants to sell his ownership interest, whether it be stock or partnership interest. So we can realize that capital gain, which is a much lower rate and also you could offset capital losses against it in your sale.

So there is an inherent conflict there that depend… And if you choose the right entity, whether it be an limited liability company or an S corporation, there are tax efficient ways to mitigate those differences between the seller and the buyer. It’s complicated. We don’t have enough time for that today, but section 338 and [inaudible 00:54:17] organizations are terms that I’ll throw out there that if you’re not familiar with them and you’re thinking about selling your business or starting a business and thinking about the entity, they’re are areas that you need to discuss with your tax advisors. But what I will say is that it is essential that you consider that upfront and plan accordingly if you’re thinking about selling your business. Onofrio.

Onofrio Cirianni: So just close out in terms of summary, most of which we’ve covered today. Just final comment and maybe even taking another question. A lot of questions came in about the impact of COVID to transactions and I would tell you that buyers are looking at the impact of COVID specific to that business. They’re getting very granular. So I’m going to use a wild example. If your business started selling masks and revenue tripled, that obviously may impact your future revenue. So they’re really looking at what happened before, maybe during COVID and maybe they’re taking a different viewpoint maybe on the specific industry and the risks that lie in there in terms of what’s happened and that’s affecting multiples, that’s affecting the structures of the deals in terms of how long owners may stay on, how much it’s going to be cash, how much will be an earn out as well. We would say that the activity is still relatively high and we always talk about things you can control and things you can’t control when you’re doing your own financial planning, your retirement planning.

And again, if your largest asset is your business is working on the business. So we would encourage all to focus on this as early as you possibly can because it does take a lot of time, effort, and energy and investment of even some dollars to get the right folks around the table to prepare you to hopefully have that optimal exit. Our hope is you enjoyed our presentation today, we promise we’ll get back to you if you had additional questions that came in or feel free to reach out to Hal or myself at any time. Thank you.

 

Transcribed by Rev.com

Stocks slide after economic warnings from Walmart, Home Depot

Stocks slide after economic warnings from Walmart, Home Depot

U.S. stocks plunged Tuesday as the prospect of increased-for-for a longer time fascination prices and letdowns from big-box stores dampened the mood on Wall Road to start a chaotic holiday getaway-shortened 7 days.

The U.S. inventory and bond marketplaces have been closed on Monday for Presidents Day.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) nosedived 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, falling underneath the key 4,000 amount, even though the Dow Jones Industrial Ordinary (^DJI) drop nearly 700 details, or 2.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The technologies-large Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) tanked 2.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

Buyers evaluated quarterly financials from Walmart (WMT) and the Household Depot (High definition) for updates on the health and fitness of the U.S. client, which has so considerably remained resilient in the deal with of stubbornly significant inflation — most a short while ago evidenced by January’s stunning retail product sales details out final week.

Walmart, on the other hand, warned Tuesday early morning that it was cautious about the outlook for the economy and mentioned clients pressured by inflation shopping for reduced-priced objects may well negatively impact margins. The retail big also issued entire-year earnings direction beneath Wall Street estimates. Shares shut a little greater after paring losses from early in the session.

“The customer is however quite pressured, and if you search at financial indicators, balance sheets are managing thinner and financial savings charges are declining relative to earlier periods,” Walmart chief financial officer John David Rainey mentioned during an earnings contact. “And so that’s why we consider a really careful outlook on the rest of the calendar year.”

MIAMI, FLORIDA - JANUARY 24: A worker stocks the shelves at a Walmart store on January 24, 2023 in Miami, Florida. Walmart
announced that it is raising its minimum wage for store employees in early March, store employees will make between $14 and $19 an hour. They currently earn between $12 and $18 an hour. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

MIAMI, FLORIDA – JANUARY 24: A employee stocks the cabinets at a Walmart store on January 24, 2023 in Miami, Florida. (Image by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The image was identical for home improvement retailer The House Depot, which also described disappointing fourth quarter success and explained it was in for a demanding 2023. Shares slid 7.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

Speculative engineering stocks, which led the rally higher to start out the year, had been using a beating on Tuesday. Cathie Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) plopped 6.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. Tesla (TSLA) spiraled down 5.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} immediately after soaring for 6 back again-to-back months.

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson wrote in Tuesday morning note that “the bear current market rally that began in October from fair costs and low anticipations has morphed into a speculative frenzy primarily based on a Fed pause/pivot that isn’t coming.”

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Typical logged its third-straight dropping week for the very first time because September, closing down .1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the 5-working day trading period. The S&P 500 fell .3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the week, its next consecutive week in the red, though the Nasdaq was an outlier, notching a weekly attain of .6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

“Traders are waking up to the realization that clean curiosity level hikes will be necessary in the US — possibly as a lot of as 3 in speedy succession — to tame the price tag spiral and which is set to send out buyers more cautious,” Susannah Streeter, head of dollars and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, claimed in emailed feedback.

In other locations of the marketplace, Treasury yields ascended, with the benchmark 10-yr observe growing 12 basis factors to prime 3.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, the greatest amount since November. The U.S. dollar also superior.

“Rising rates thanks to the market’s repricing of a likely better for extended monetary policy route have weighed on possibility urge for food,” Adam Turnquist, chief complex strategist for LPL Economic said in a note. “Benchmark 10-calendar year Treasury yields have now cleared important resistance at 3.90{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, elevating upside danger in yields, which will most likely carry on to weigh on equities.”

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 17, 2023.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

A trader performs on the floor of the New York Stock Trade (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 17, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Later in the week, Wall Street will get a readout of minutes from the Federal Open Marketplace Committee’s last conference earlier this thirty day period.

The release will offer clues about the upcoming price enhance in March, which some investors are now expecting to be 50 foundation details immediately after potent financial information and hotter-than-projected inflation readings.

Last week, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester explained she would have favored elevating fascination fees by 50 basis factors Feb. 1 instead than the smaller sized quarter-point amount boost her colleagues opted for.

Traders fretting above inflation and the route ahead for interest costs also await the Private Intake Expenditures (PCE) value index — the Fed’s most carefully watched assessment of how rapidly prices are mounting throughout the economy — which is set for launch Friday early morning.

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Comply with her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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Attitudes begin to shift regarding monetary policy, economic growth, and stock prices

Attitudes begin to shift regarding monetary policy, economic growth, and stock prices

This post was originally published on TKer.co

Stocks declined, with the S&P 500 falling 1.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} last week. The index is now up 6.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} year to date, up 14.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03, and down 14.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its January 3, 2022 closing high of 4,796.56.

Over the past two weeks or so, it seems attitudes have begun to shift favorably regarding monetary policy, economic growth, and the trajectory of stock prices.

1. The Fed acknowledges inflation is coming down 🦅

In May of last year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned “there could be some pain involved in restoring price stability.” A month later, we learned inflation was unexpectedly heating up again. And then on June 15, the Fed announced an eye-popping 75-basis-point interest rate hike, the largest increase the central bank made in a single announcement since 1994.

Back then, I explained how these dynamics presented a conundrum for the stock market as market beatings would continue until inflation improved in the Fed’s eyes.

Fast forward to February 1, following several months of cooling inflation data, when Powell said at the conclusion of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting: “We can now say, I think, for the first time that the disinflationary process has started. We can see that.“ (Emphasis added.)

The consumer price index has cooled significantly, signaling disinflation. (Source: BLS via <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE#0" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:FRED;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">FRED</a>)
The consumer price index has cooled significantly, signaling disinflation. (Source: BLS via FRED)

“Powell cited the word ‘disinflation’ 13 times in this press conference,” Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, wrote that day in a note to clients. “This is a major change in language and tone and shows that the Fed is now officially recognizing the growing disinflation forces underway. In [the December press conference], ‘disinflation’ was used ZERO times by Powell.”

This is a pretty big deal for the stock market, as prices tend to bottom in the weeks and months before major bullish developments. If this less hawkish tone from the Fed holds, then it’s possible the October 12 low for the S&P 500 was the beginning of the next bull market.

1

“In our view, Chair Powell is placing more weight on an ‘immaculate disinflation’ scenario, where inflation pressures subside without some softening in labor market conditions, including higher unemployment,” Michael Gapen, U.S. economist at BofA, wrote on Tuesday. “This stands in contrast to the Powell from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last August, who leaned strongly into doing whatever it takes to bring inflation down and emphasized that inflation was unlikely to subside without some ‘pain’ in labor markets.”

As long as the inflation numbers continue to trend on the cooler side, the Fed seems likely to keep its less hawkish tone.

For more, read: TKer’s 2022 word of the year: ‘Pain’ 🥊, When the Fed-sponsored market beatings will end 📈, and The market beatings will continue until inflation improves 🥊.

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2. The economy is less likely to go into recession 💪

I can’t pinpoint exactly when the consensus among economists was that the U.S. was due for a recession. The worries certainly intensified after we learned GDP growth was negative in Q1 of last year, and they got a whole lot worse when we learned growth was negative in Q2 as well.

For more on how recessions are and aren’t defined, read: You call this a recession? 🤨.

Over this period, I’ve been skeptical of the idea that the U.S. was destined for a downturn given the massive economic tailwinds I couldn’t stop thinking about and still can’t stop thinking about.

Coming into 2023, the baseline expectation for many Wall Street firms was that the U.S. would enter a recession at some point during the year.

But after the robust January jobs report and expansionary January ISM Services survey earlier this month, sentiment among economists has shifted a bit.

On Monday, Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius published a note titled, “Receding Recession Risk,“ in which he lowered the odds of the U.S. entering a recession in the next 12 months to 25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from 35{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

“Continued strength in the labor market and early signs of improvement in the business surveys suggest that the risk of a near-term slump has diminished notably,“ Hatzius wrote.

On Wednesday, we learned the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model saw real GDP growth climbing at a 2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} rate in Q1. This metric is up considerably from its initial estimate of 0.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} growth as of January 27.

Recent economic data suggests economic growth is much stronger than forecasters expect. (Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/cqer/researchcq/gdpnow/RealGDPTrackingSlides.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Atlanta Fed;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">Atlanta Fed</a>)
Recent economic data suggests economic growth is much stronger than forecasters expect. (Source: Atlanta Fed)

On Thursday, The New York Times published an article from Jeanna Smialek titled: “What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound.“ The title speaks for itself.

On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal published an article from Nick Timiraos titled: “Hard or Soft Landing? Some Economists See Neither if Growth Accelerates.“ It addresses the same themes.

All that said, it could take a few more weeks of resilient economic data before more economists officially revise their forecasts to the upside.

For more, read: 9 reasons to be optimistic about the economy and markets 💪 and The bullish ‘goldilocks’ soft landing scenario that everyone wants 😀.

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3. The stock market might not crater in the first half 📉

Many prominent Wall Street strategists warned that the S&P 500 was likely to sell-off sharply during the early part of 2023 before recovering at least some of those losses later in the year. This was driven by the expectation that expectations for earnings would continue to get revised lower.

But there were at least three issues with all this: 1) stocks often rise in years when earnings fall, 2) stocks usually bottom before earnings bottom, and 3) when many people expect stocks to sell-off for the same reason, then that information is likely to be already priced into the market.

The S&P 500 is up 6.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in 2023 so far, and the index has spent much of this period higher than where it started the year.

At least one top strategist has abandoned his call for an early sell-off. Here’s Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin in a Feb. 3 note to clients (emphasis added):

Recent macro developments have strengthened our economists’ confidence in a soft landing and reduced equity downside risk in the near term. Outside the US, the growth picture in China has brightened following an earlier-than-expected reopening and Europe is now on track to avoid a recession following a warmer-than-expected winter. In addition, Fed Chair Powell this week did little to push back on the easing of financial conditions. Our rates strategists’ expected path of Treasuries suggest little near-term upside to yields. We therefore believe the risk of a substantial drawdown in the near term has diminished, barring unforeseen data surprises. We raise our 3-month S&P 500 price target to 4,000 (-3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from today) from 3,600. As shown this week, still-light institutional investor positioning points to the risk of a chase that would see the market temporarily overshoot our S&P 500 target of 4,000.

Most of the S&P 500 have announced quarterly financial results in recent weeks, and based on what they’ve revealed, it looks like the outlook for earnings may not be as grim as previously anticipated.

“[W]e see no recession ahead in the broad economy — or in earnings — but a soft landing,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said on Tuesday (h/t Carl Quintanilla). “We are currently estimating that S&P 500 operating earnings will be up 4.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} this year to $225 per share and 11.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} next year to $250.”

S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow in 2023 and 2024. (Source: Yardeni Research via <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1622909989697339398/photo/1" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@CarlQuintanilla;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">@CarlQuintanilla</a>)
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow in 2023 and 2024. (Source: Yardeni Research via @CarlQuintanilla)

The S&P 500 is currently trading above most strategists’ year-end target for the index. Should these gains hold and perhaps improve, we could soon see some strategists revise up their targets.

For more, read: Wall Street’s 2023 outlook for stocks 🔭, Stocks often rise in years when earnings fall 🤯, One of the most frequently cited risks to stocks in 2023 is ‘overstated’ 😑, and Everyone’s talking about a near-term sell-off. A contrarian signal?

What to make of all this

Not everyone thinks resilient economic growth is unambiguously good news.

“With very strong job growth, a higher labor force participation rate, and a decline in the unemployment rate to the lowest level since 1969, it is beginning to look more like a ‘no landing’ scenario,” Apollo’s Torsten Slok wrote in a February 4 note. “Under the no landing scenario the economy does not slow down, and upside risks to inflation are coming back after the initial decline in inflation driven by supply chain improvements.”

Renewed concerns about inflation could force the Fed to get more hawkish, which puts economic growth and rising stock prices at risk. In other words, good news could become bad news once again. For more on this dynamic, read: Your guide to ‘good news is bad news’ and ‘bad news is good news’ 🙃.

But if there’s one thing we’ve learned in recent months, it’s that we can simultaneously have consecutive months of healthy job growth and inflation readings that come in cool. For more on this dynamic, read: The bullish ‘goldilocks’ soft landing scenario that everyone wants 😀.

As always, time will tell what actually happens. But for the time being, the optimists appear to be triumphing over the pessimists as inflation, economic growth, and stock prices have been trending favorably in recent months.

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That’s interesting! 💡

Did you know cricket is the second most watched sport in the world? And it’s emerging in the U.S. in a big way. From JohnWallStreet:

American Cricket Enterprises (ACE), the entity operating Major League Cricket (MLC), has raised more than $100 million. ACE founders Sameer Mehta, Vijay Srinivasan, Satyan Gajwani and Vineet Jain — and the balance of company investors — are betting the league will be able to draw the sport’s top players and attract interest from fans around the globe, becoming a staple of the cricket calendar in the process. If it can, club valuations will “grow like a hockey stick,” Sanjay Govil (chairman, Infinite Computer Solutions and CEO, Zyter Inc.) said. Govil owns the team in Washington D.C. Dallas, San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York City and Seattle will also have clubs playing in the inaugural ’23 season, which is slated to take place from June 13-30.

Reviewing the macro crosscurrents 🔀

There were a few notable data points from last week to consider:

⛓️ Supply chains continue to improve. The New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index

2

— a composite of various supply chain indicators — fell in January and is hovering at levels seen in late 2020. It’s way down from its December 2021 supply chain crisis high.

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/gscpi#/interactive" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:NY Fed;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">NY Fed</a>)

📈 Inventory levels are up. According to Census Bureau data released Tuesday, wholesale inventories climbed 0.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $932.9 billion in December. The inventories/sales ratio was 1.36, up significantly from 1.24 the previous year.

For more on supply chains and inventory levels, read: “We can stop calling it a supply chain crisis ⛓,“ “9 reasons to be optimistic about the economy and markets 💪, “and “The bullish ‘goldilocks’ soft landing scenario that everyone wants 😀.

👍 Consumer sentiment is improving. From the University of Michigan February Survey of Consumers: “After three consecutive months of increases, sentiment is now 6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} above a year ago but still 14{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} below two years ago, prior to the current inflationary episode. Overall, high prices continue to weigh on consumers despite the recent moderation in inflation, and sentiment remains more than 22{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} below its historical average since 1978.“

(Source: University of Michigan via <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1624062147427794944/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@M_McDonough;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">@M_McDonough</a>)

🛍️ Consumers are spending. From BofA: “We saw signs of strengthening in consumer spending in both retail and services in January, accelerating from December. Total Bank of America credit and debit card spending per household was up 5.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} YoY in January, vs. 2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} YoY in December. On a month-over-month (MoM) seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, total card spending per household was up 1.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, more than reversing the 1.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} MoM decline in December.“

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://business.bofa.com/content/dam/flagship/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-february-2023.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:BofA;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">BofA</a>)

🍻 They’re buying cheap beer. From FreightWaves’ Rachel Premack: “…Beer became suddenly pricey at the end of last year. Beer prices at retail, which doesn’t include bars or restaurants, popped 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during the last 13 weeks of 2022… That price increase is showing up in how people are buying brews, said Dave Williams, vice president of Bump Williams Consulting. People are increasingly buying, say, 12-packs over 30-packs or even single servings of beer. They’re trading down too — snagging the more economic Keystone over comparatively pricey Coors. That explains why the “below premium” segment was the only one to see an increase in demand in January compared to January 2022, according to the National Beer Wholesalers Association’s Beer Purchasers’ Index…”

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://www.freightwaves.com/news/what-crappy-beer-demand-tells-us-about-the-economy" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:FreightWaves;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">FreightWaves</a>)

💳 Consumers are taking on more debt, but levels are manageable. According to Federal Reserve data, total revolving consumer credit outstanding increased to $1.196 trillion in December. Revolving credit consists mostly of credit card loans.

(Source: Federal Reserve via <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL#" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:FRED;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">FRED</a>)
(Source: Federal Reserve via FRED)

While the aggregate borrowing seems high, they’re much more reasonable when you look at consumer finances more holistically. From BofA: “On the savings side, Bank of America internal data suggests median household savings and checking balances across income groups have been trending down since April 2022, with the lowest income group (<$50k) seeing the steepest drawdown. But deposits remain above 2019 levels (Exhibit 6) for all income cohorts.“

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://business.bofa.com/content/dam/flagship/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-february-2023.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:BofA;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">BofA</a>)

💳 No, they are not maxing out their credit cards. From BofA: “Lower income consumers appear to still have some level of comfort in terms of their financial constraints. On the one hand, the ratio of median household card spending to median deposit balances (spending-to-savings ratio) remained lower than in 2019 for households with an annual income of less than <$150k (Exhibit 7). This suggests this cohort’s spending would not need to be reduced too much for the spending-to-savings ratio to return to 2019 levels. On the other hand, the Bank of America credit card utilization rate also remained lower than in 2019 across income groups (Exhibit 8).“

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://business.bofa.com/content/dam/flagship/bank-of-america-institute/economic-insights/consumer-checkpoint-february-2023.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:BofA;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">BofA</a>)

For more on this, read: Consumer finances are in remarkably good shape 💰

💵 Consumers are getting more on their savings accounts. From Semafor’s Liz Hoffman: “The average savings account rate has quintupled since last January to 0.33{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, according to data from the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation…“

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://www.semafor.com/newsletter/02/09/2023/national-security-worries-force-forbes-to-look-for-a-us-investor" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Semafor;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">Semafor</a>)

🤔 Low union participation helps explain low wage growth. From UBS: ““Wage growth is slowing noticeably along multiple measures even with a decades low unemployment rate. Why? … One reason could be low bargaining power for workers… The share of unionized workers among private employees fell to 6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in 2022, according to the BLS.”

💰 Wall Street is busy. From Bloomberg on Tuesday: “About seven IPOs are expected to raise a combined $900 million and begin trading by Friday [Feb. 10], making for the busiest week since October’s $990 million listing by Intel Corp.’s self-driving technology unit Mobileye Global Inc., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. [Last] week’s debuts include solar power equipment maker Nextracker Inc., which plans to raise as much as $535 million in what would be the year’s biggest deal yet. Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd., which is already public in Israel, plans to add a listing on the Nasdaq.“

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-07/ipo-market-warms-up-with-busiest-us-trading-week-since-october" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Bloomberg;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">Bloomberg</a>)

And it’s not just IPOs. There were numerous reports of dealmaking activity last week involving some big names (link).

(via <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://twitter.com/SamRo/status/1622907207896469505" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@SamRo;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">@SamRo</a>)

📉 👎 Big companies announce layoffs. On Monday, Bloomberg reported that Dell Technologies would be “eliminating about 6,650.“ On Tuesday, Zoom announced it would “say goodbye to around 1,300 hardworking, talented colleagues.“ On Wednesday, Disney announced it would be “reducing our workforce by approximately 7,000 jobs.“ On Thursday, News Corp announced “an expected 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} headcount reduction, or around 1,250 positions,” and Axios reported that Yahoo would lay off “more than 1,600 people.”

Here’s UBS economist Paul Donovan offering some perspective: “Another company—Disney this time — has announced headcount reductions. We get US initial jobless claims data [Thursday], and the macroeconomic data does not match the high profile press releases of job losses. A major reason is that large companies are not that important economically — smaller businesses matter most to labor markets. Smaller businesses tend to have underemployment rather than unemployment. It is quite hard to fire 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of a three-person company.“

For more on this, read: Making sense of conflicting news on the labor market 🤔.

⚠️ More big layoff announcements to come? Goldman Sachs economists think it’s possible. From a research note published Monday: “…on the negative side, there could be additional layoff announcements yet to come from other large companies, as roughly 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of companies in the S&P 500 have seen headcount increases of 40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} or more since the start of the pandemic (Exhibit 4), and only one-fifth of them have announced layoffs so far.“

(Source: Goldman Sachs)

(Source: Goldman Sachs)

But: “…on the positive side, similar to the rebalancing seen so far in the broader labor market, even these companies that have announced layoffs have reduced their total demand for workers overwhelmingly by reducing job openings rather than by conducting layoffs.“ For more on job openings, read: How job openings explain everything in the economy and the markets right now 📋.

Also: “…Exhibit 7 shows that most industries (8 out of 11) have reemployment rates above pre-pandemic levels, including the information sector (the sector of most major tech companies), and that all of them have reemployment rates that are above the recent expansion average.”

(Source: Goldman Sachs)

(Source: Goldman Sachs)

I’ve started an informal thread on Twitter tracking anecdotes of companies hiring (Link).

For more on hiring, read: That’s a lot of hiring 🍾 and You should not be surprised by the strength of the labor market 💪.

💼 Unemployment claims remain low. Initial claims for unemployment benefits climbed to 196,000 during the week ending Feb. 4, up from 183,000 the week prior. While the number is up from its six-decade low of 166,000 in March, it remains near levels seen during periods of economic expansion.

(Source: DOL via <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA#" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:FRED;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">FRED</a>)

For more on low unemployment, read: 9 reasons to be optimistic about the economy and markets 💪.

🏠 On work from home #WFH. From Stanford professor Nick Bloom: “Data on 4,000 U.S. firms #WFH policies: 1) 50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of firms are fully on-site, like food-service, accommodation and retail, 2) 40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} combine #WFH and in person days in various ways: min-days, anchor days, employee choice etc, 3) 8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} are fully remote“

(Source: <a data-i13n="cpos:1;pos:1" href="https://twitter.com/I_Am_NickBloom/status/1622910542485549057/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@I_Am_NickBloom;cpos:1;pos:1" class="link ">@I_Am_NickBloom</a>)

Putting it all together 🤔

We’re getting a lot of evidence that we may get the bullish “Goldilocks” soft landing scenario where inflation cools to manageable levels without the economy having to sink into recession.

And the Federal Reserve has recently adopted a less hawkish tone, acknowledging on February 1 that “for the first time that the disinflationary process has started.“

Nevertheless, inflation still has to come down more before the Fed is comfortable with price levels. So we should expect the central bank to continue to tighten monetary policy, which means we should be prepared for tighter financial conditions (e.g. higher interest rates, tighter lending standards, and lower stock valuations). All of this means the market beatings may continue and the risk the economy sinks into a recession will be elevated.

It’s important to remember that while recession risks are elevated, consumers are coming from a very strong financial position. Unemployed people are getting jobs. Those with jobs are getting raises. And many still have excess savings to tap into. Indeed, strong spending data confirms this financial resilience. So it’s too early to sound the alarm from a consumption perspective.

At this point, any downturn is unlikely to turn into economic calamity given that the financial health of consumers and businesses remains very strong.

As always, long-term investors should remember that recessions and bear markets are just part of the deal when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While markets have had a terrible year, the long-run outlook for stocks remains positive.

For more on how the macro story is evolving, check out the previous TKer macro crosscurrents »

For more on why this is an unusually unfavorable environment for the stock market, read: The market beatings will continue until inflation improves 🥊 »

For a closer look at where we are and how we got here, read: The complicated mess of the markets and economy, explained 🧩 »

This post was originally published on TKer.co

Sam Ro is the founder of TKer.co. Follow him on Twitter at @SamRo

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Brexit has cracked Britain’s economic foundations

Brexit has cracked Britain’s economic foundations


London
CNN
 — 

It’s been two years since former Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed his Brexit trade deal and triumphantly declared that Britain would be “prosperous, dynamic and contented” after completing its exit from the European Union.

The Brexit deal would enable UK companies to “do even more business” with the European Union, according to Johnson, and would leave Britain free to strike trade deals around the world while continuing to export seamlessly to the EU market of 450 million consumers.

In reality, Brexit has hobbled the UK economy, which remains the only member of the G7 — the group of advanced economies that also includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — with an economy smaller than it was before the pandemic.

Years of uncertainty over the future trading relationship with the European Union, Britain’s largest trading partner, have damaged business investment, which in the third quarter was 8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} below pre-pandemic levels despite a UK-EU trade deal being in place for nearly two years.

And the pound has taken a beating, making imports more expensive and stoking inflation while failing to boost exports, even as other parts of the world have enjoyed a post-pandemic trade boom.

Brexit has erected trade barriers for UK businesses and foreign companies that used Britain as a European base. It’s weighing on imports and exports, sapping investment and contributing to labor shortages. All this has exacerbated Britain’s inflation problem, hurting workers and the business community.

“The most plausible reason as to why Britain is doing comparatively worse than comparable countries is Brexit,” according to L. Alan Winters, co-director of the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy at the University of Sussex.

The sense of gloom hanging over the UK economy is captured by striking workers, who are walking out in ever larger numbers over pay and conditions as the worst inflation in decades eats into their wages. At the same time, the government is cutting spending and hiking taxes to fill the hole in its budget.

While Brexit isn’t the cause of Britain’s cost-of-living crisis, it has made the problem more difficult to solve.

“The UK chose Brexit in a referendum, but the government then chose a particularly hard form of Brexit, which maximized the economic cost,” said Michael Saunders, a senior adviser at Oxford Economics and former Bank of England official. “Any hope for economic upside from Brexit is pretty much gone.”

NHS nurses strike over pay outside St Thomas' Hospital in London on December 20, 2022.

Although Britain voted to leave the European Union in June 2016, its exit from the single market and customs union was finalized only on December 24, 2020, when the two sides finally agreed a free trade deal.

The Brexit deal, known as the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, came into effect on January 1, 2021.

It eliminated tariffs on most goods but introduced a raft of non-tariff barriers, such as border controls, customs checks, import duties and health inspections on plant and animal products.

Before Brexit, a farmer in Kent could ship a truckload of potatoes to Paris just as easily as they might send it to London. Those days are no more.

“We hear stories every single day from small businesses about the nightmare of forms, transportation, couriers, things getting stuck for weeks at a time… the epic length of the problems is just gobsmacking,” said Michelle Ovens, the founder of Small Business Britain, a campaign group.

“The way things have panned out in the last two years has been really bad for small businesses,” Ovens told CNN.

Researchers at the London School of Economics estimate that the variety of UK products exported to the European Union declined by 30{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during the first year of Brexit. They said that this was likely because small exporters had exited small EU markets.

Take the example of Little Star, a UK company that makes jewelry for children. Its business took off in the Netherlands and it had plans to expand to France and Germany next. But since Brexit, only two of more than 30 of its Dutch customers are prepared to handle the costs and paperwork to obtain stock from the company.

Products that took two days to ship are now taking three weeks, while import duties and sales taxes have made it much harder to compete with European jewelers, according to Rob Walker, who co-founded the business with his wife, Vicky, in 2017. The company is now looking to the United States for growth opportunities.

“Isn’t it mad that we have to look to the other side of the Atlantic to do business, because it’s so difficult to do business with people 30 miles away?” Walker said.

A truck passes a Union Jack, at the Port of Dover on April 1, 2021. The UK government has delayed post-Brexit checks on EU food imports until the end of 2023.

A British Chambers of Commerce survey of more than 1,168 businesses published this month reported that 77{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} said Brexit has not helped them increase sales or grow their businesses. More than half said they were finding it difficult to adapt to the new rules for trading goods.

Siteright Construction Supplies, a manufacturer in Dorset, told the Chamber that importing parts from the European Union to fix broken machines has become a costly and “time-consuming nightmare.”

“Brexit has been the biggest-ever imposition of bureaucracy on business,” according to Siteright.

Nova Dog Chews, a producer of snacks for canines, said it would have lost all its EU trade had it not set up a base in the bloc. “This has cost our business a huge amount of money, which could have been invested in the UK had it not been for Brexit,” it added.

A UK government spokesperson told CNN that the government’s export support service has provided exporters with “practical support” on the implementation of the Brexit deal. The deal is “the world’s largest zero tariff, zero quota free trade deal,” the spokesperson added. “It secures the UK market access across key service sectors and opens new opportunities for UK businesses across the globe.”

Britain won’t easily replace what it has lost by forfeiting unfettered access to the world’s largest trading bloc.

The only substantive new trade deals it has struck since exiting the European Union, which did not simply roll over the deals it had as an EU member, have been with Australia and New Zealand. By the government’s own estimate, these will have a negligible impact on the UK economy, increasing GDP in the long run by just 0.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and 0.03{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} respectively.

By contrast, the UK Office for Budget Responsibility, which produces economic forecasts for the government, expects Brexit to reduce Britain’s output by 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over 15 years compared to remaining in the bloc. Exports and imports are projected to be around 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} lower in the long run.

Initial data has borne this out. According to the OBR, in the fourth quarter of 2021, UK goods export volumes to the European Union were 9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} below 2019 levels, with imports from the European Union 18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} lower. Goods exports to non-EU countries were 18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} weaker than in 2019.

The United Kingdom “appears to have become a less trade-intensive economy, with trade as a share of GDP falling 12{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} since 2019, two and a half times more than in any other G7 country,” the OBR said in the March report.

The decline in exports to non-EU countries could be a sign that UK businesses have become less competitive as they battle higher supply chain costs following Brexit, according to Jun Du, an economics professor at Aston University in Birmingham.

“The UK’s trading ability has been damaged permanently [by Brexit],” Du told CNN. “It doesn’t mean it can’t recover, but it’s been set back for a number of years.”

Research by the Centre for European Reform, a think tank, estimates that over the 18 months to June 2022, UK goods trade is 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} lower than it would have been had Britain remained in the European Union.

Investment is 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} weaker and GDP is 5.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} smaller than it would have been, costing the economy £40 billion ($48.4 billion) in tax revenues annually. That’s enough to pay for three quarters of the spending cuts and tax rises that UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced in November.

The United Kingdom is projected to have one of the worst performing economies next year among developed nations.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects the UK economy to shrink by 0.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, ahead only of sanctioned Russia. GDP in Germany is forecast to be 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} smaller.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of just 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for UK GDP next year, ahead of only Germany, Italy and Russia, which are expected to contract.

Both institutions say high inflation and rising interest rates will weigh on spending by consumers and businesses in Britain.

According to the Confederation of British Industry, a leading business group, the fall in private sector activity picked up pace in December and has now declined for five consecutive quarters.

The downward trend “looks set to deepen” in 2023, principal economist at the CBI Martin Sartorius said in a statement.

“Businesses continue to face a number of headwinds, with rising costs, labor shortages, and weakening demand contributing to a gloomy outlook for next year. ”

— Julia Horowitz contributed to this report.