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Stock futures drop, Treasury yields spike as traders await inflation, earnings data

Stock futures drop, Treasury yields spike as traders await inflation, earnings data

U.S. stocks dipped Monday morning as investors looked ahead to the start of corporate earnings season this week and a bevy of new economic data as the Federal Reserve prepares to accelerate its moves to counter inflation.

The S&P 500 declined 0.61{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and added to last week’s losses. Nasdaq dropped 1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} as technology stocks came under renewed pressure. Treasury yields climbed, and the benchmark 10-year yield rose above 2.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to reach the highest level since January 2019.

Concerns over inflation, rising commodity prices amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path forward remained at the center of investors’ attention. On Tuesday, traders are set to receive the latest Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is expected to show a staggering 8.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} year-over-year increase in prices for the biggest leap since 1982. And this comes as Fed officials have increasingly talked of larger-than-average 50 basis-point interest rate hikes this year to help bring down prices. Last week, the Fed’s March meeting minutes also showed the central bank was gearing up to begin rolling off assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet, in a further move removing financial market support and pivoting away from pandemic-era accommodative policies.

“If we think about recent cycles that are comparable, I think about 2018, 2019, the Fed was raising interest rates and running off its balance sheet. That should sound very familiar,” Seth Carpenter, global chief economist for Morgan Stanley, told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “But at the end of 2018, risk markets started to crack and the Fed reversed course really quickly.”

“The key difference now between those two episodes is they are trying to pull inflation down. They’re not trying to keep it from rising,” he added. “And so what that means is they’re trying to slow the U.S. economy. They’re trying to slow growth so much that inflation pressures come down but not so much that they tip us over into recession. And that’s tricky.”

Meanwhile, the start of the latest quarterly corporate earnings season this week will help show how individual companies have navigated inflationary pressures and the specter of slowing economic growth. As of Friday, Wall Street analysts expected S&P 500 earnings to grow 4.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the first quarter over last year, according to FactSet data. If realized, this would mark the slowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2020.

“Guidance and management commentary will be particularly important sources of information this quarter given the earnings uncertainty going forward,” David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, wrote in a note Monday. “Consistent with prior quarters, guidance has recently been a key differentiator of stock performance.”

9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks kick off the week lower

Here were the main moves in markets as of 9:30 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): -28.10 (-0.63{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,460.18

  • Dow (^DJI): -100.65 (-0.29{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,620.47

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): -162.58 (-1.19{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 13,548.42

  • Crude (CL=F): -$3.74 (-3.81{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $94.52 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$20.70 (+1.06{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,966.30 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +4.2 bps to yield 2.7550{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

7:13 a.m. ET: Twitter shares dip after Musk decides not to join board

Shares of Twitter (TWTR) dropped Monday morning, giving back some of last week’s gains after Tesla CEO Elon Musk opted not to join the board of the social media company after taking a more than 9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} stake.

“Elon’s appointment to the board was to become officially effective 4/9, but Elon shared that same morning that he will no longer be joining the board. I believe this is for the best,” Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal said in a tweet Monday. “We have and will always value input from our shareholders whether they are on our Board or not. Elon is our biggest shareholder and we will remain open to his input.”

“There will be distractions ahead, but our goals and priorities remain unchanged,” Agrawal added. “The decisions we make and how we execute is in our hands, no one else’s.”

—

7:07 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures head for a lower open

Here’s where markets were trading Monday morning before the opening bell:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -15 points (-0.33{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,468.50

  • Dow futures (YM=F): -24 points (-0.07{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,589.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -106.5 points (-0.74{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,220.50

  • Crude (CL=F): -$2.49 (-2.53{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $95.77 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$16.00 (+0.82{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,961.60 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +4.2 bps to yield 2.757{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

—

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday, April 7

5 things to know before the stock market opens Thursday, April 7

Here are the most vital news, developments and examination that traders will need to commence their buying and selling day:

1. Wall Avenue appears continual right after two days of Fed-pushed selling

Traders operate on the flooring of the New York Stock Trade (NYSE) in New York, March 29, 2022.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

U.S. stock futures ended up reasonably steady Thursday, as Wall Street tried using to stay clear of a three-session losing streak. The Nasdaq led the offering around the past two times as the Federal Reserve commenced to strike a extra hawkish tone — sinking 2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} on Wednesday, a day right after about a 2.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} drop.

  • Just after a selection of Fed officials identified as for much more aggressive tightening to combat inflation, the central bank’s minutes from its March assembly indicated common settlement to shrink its substantial balance sheet by $95 billion for each thirty day period.
  • The minutes also showed Fed officers have been considering larger-than-typical amount hikes of 50 foundation points immediately after a 25 foundation level elevate previous month, the very first improve in extra than a few years.

2. Important Treasury yield distribute remains inverted immediately after jobless promises information

Traditionally, these inversions have took place prior to financial recessions. With the employment marketplace robust, the Fed might have place to gradual the economic climate to struggle inflation — threading the needle on its dual mandate of fostering maximum work and managing rates. The central lender is predicted to hike premiums at all six of its remaining meetings this 12 months. The dimensions of people will increase are the actual query.

3. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reveals big stake in HP

Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway’s yearly conference in Los Angeles, California. May possibly 1, 2021.

Gerard Miller | CNBC

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has initiated a key stake in tech hardware stock HP Inc., becoming the largest shareholder in the Computer system and printer maker. Berkshire purchased nearly 121 million shares of HP, roughly 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, in accordance to securities filings, a stake that was truly worth about $4.2 billion centered HP’s closing inventory selling price Wednesday. That’s just before a 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} soar in HP shares in Thursday’s premarket following the news, which broke hrs just after the closing bell. Berkshire has grow to be additional energetic in modern months, announcing a offer to buy insurance policies organization Alleghany for $11.6 billion and scooping up shares of energy business Occidental Petroleum.

4. Shell announces generate-off up to $5 billion in assets soon after exiting Russia

Royal Dutch Shell products and solutions in Torzhok, Russia.

Andrey Rudakov | Bloomberg | Getty Photos

Shell said Thursday it will produce off concerning $4 billion and $5 billion soon after pulling out of Russia. The announcement provides a to start with glimpse at the probable fiscal effect to Western oil giants that exited Russia next Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Even more facts of the impression of ongoing developments in Ukraine will appear in Shell’s initially-quarter earnings report on May possibly 5, the organization stated. Shell beforehand estimated that Russia generate-downs would get to $3.4 billion. Very last month, Shell was pressured to apologize for buying intensely discounted Russian oil and subsequently declared a withdrawal from Russia.

5. Ukraine request NATO for extra weapons as Russia regroups for eastern offensive

A funeral assistance worker looks at bodies of civilians, gathered from streets to area cemetery, as Russia’s attack on Ukraine proceeds, in the city of Bucha, outside Kyiv, Ukraine April 6, 2022.

Stringer | Reuters

Ukraine on Thursday appealed to NATO for additional weapons in its struggle from Russia to help avert additional atrocities like those reported in Bucha, just outside the house of Kyiv. Western countries have supplied Ukraine with moveable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, but they have been hesitant to provide plane, tanks or any other gear that would need training to use.

  • Russian forces, which failed to speedily get Ukraine’s capital, are regrouping for an offensive in jap Ukraine, the place Moscow early in its incursion recognized the Luhansk and Donetsk spots as independent states.

— CNBC reporters Yun Li, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Hannah Miao, Jesse Pound, Elliot Smith and Silvia Amaro as well as The Affiliated Push contributed to this report.

— Indication up now for the CNBC Investing Club to adhere to Jim Cramer’s each individual stock shift. Observe the broader marketplace action like a pro on CNBC Professional.

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Is the stock market flashing a net bullish sign?: Morning Brief

Is the stock market flashing a net bullish sign?: Morning Brief

This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe

Monday, April 4, 2022

“Cash is trash,” billionaire Ray Dalio told me in a chat recently (more on that below). And he may be right as it pertains to the current investing backdrop.

Cash allocations are almost two times more than last year’s levels, according to new data out of Bank of America. The data looks at the average recommended allocation to stocks and cash by sell-side strategists.

After recommended cash allocations hit a low of 2.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} last August, they have jumped to 4.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} today. BofA says this is a “big” move.

At the same time, sentiment on stocks has declined for three straight months as investors digest worrisome headlines on inflation, the war between Russia and Ukraine, and weakening corporate profit margins.

While investors holding more cash appears like a negative for stocks at first blush, it’s actually not historically, points out BofA strategist Savita Subramanian.

“What we have found is that consensus Wall Street strategists are a very reliable contrarian indicator. When they are telling you to dial down your equity exposure and increase your allocation to cash, that’s actually net bullish. What we found is that when the bulk of evidence is telling you to be more cautious and defensive, probably all of that information is priced into the market and the market is more likely to surprise in the opposite direction,” Subramanian said on Yahoo Finance Live.

So on that score, trash cash and maybe put $1,000 into GameStop and another $1,000 into a boring as all hell dividend-paying company (note: this is NOT investment advice). YOLO!

Happy trading!

Odds and ends

One-on-one with Ray Dalio: I had the chance to catch up with Bridgewater Associates founder and co-chief investment officer Ray Dalio. So be on the lookout for a lot of “stuff” hitting Yahoo Finance today from that lengthy chat, which comes as a new post on YouTube from Dalio titled “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order” nears an eye-popping 10 million views. But here is one quote from Dalio that left me thinking — and perhaps should leave you thinking as well. “I think that most likely what we’re going to have is a period of stagflation. And then you have to understand how to build a portfolio that’s balanced for that kind of an environment.”

Tweet of the morning: Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood isn’t keen on more interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, as seen in a new tweet. It makes sense, as the last thing any exec at Tesla, Coinbase, Teladoc, Roku, and Zoom (the top five holdings in Wood’s Ark Innovation ETF) wants to see is a higher cost of capital as they continue to try to take over the world. Speaking of Wood’s long-time favorite, Tesla, the company posted first quarter deliveries of 310,000 versus Street estimates for 312,000. The miss may not derail the stock, as Wedbush analyst Dan Ives notes: “The bears will point to Tesla missing headline Street estimates although we believe the supply/logistics issues for Tesla in the goodbye last week of the quarter were piling up and most investors will look through the slight official headline miss on deliveries. We remain steadfastly bullish on the Tesla story and believe when factoring in all the manufacturing headwind dynamics this was a modestly bullish print.”

Starbucks: Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson officially steps down today, handing the coffee ship off to the company’s iconic founder and failed presidential candidate Howard Schultz. Here’s a list of a few key moments from Johnson’s tenure: 1) launching sous vide egg bites in 2017 — these things are great on the go; 2) launching the unicorn frappe in 2017 — this drink was Instagram pic gold; 3) tweaking the Starbucks rewards program in 2019 that caused a social media uproar; 4) announcing in 2020 a plan to close 400 company operated stores — this was long overdue; 5) debuting a decision in mid-March to rid the company of single-use cups — get ready to bring your $75 Yeti bottle to Starbucks; 6) unionizing at Starbucks was born under Johnson’s tenure (expert reporting by Yahoo Finance’s Dani Romero on this); 7) lifting of hourly pay at Starbucks to more than $15 an hour; 8) halting Schultz’s expensive pet project of opening up giant Roastery stores in major cities.

The keys to Starbucks are now back in Schultz’s pocket. He loves writing blog posts (and internal memos as seen today, in which he announced Starbucks is halting stock buybacks), and I suspect we will get a few of them (likely targeted at cooling the union movement) before he heads back off into retirement before the end of 2022 (assuming he doesn’t decide to stay on as CEO). I will offer this dose of advice to Howard. The most important thing you could do for the future of Starbucks is to spend the next three months on the road visiting Starbucks stores across the world and listening to what employees are going through right now. This in many respects is a different company than when you left in 2017, in large part because of the aftershocks of the pandemic but also due to missteps by Starbucks. So you must actually hear the workers and then implement a plan for the next decade from there — and it’s not just giving them a few extra dollars an hour, it’s also about total quality of life.

Secondarily, Starbucks has lost a lot of great executive talent in the last decade (see Walgreens new CEO Roz Brewer, a former top Starbucks exec). I wish you well Howard, you know how to reach me (just don’t cancel my free birthday drink for writing this please — I intend to use it today).

Miscellaneous: One part personally therapeutic, one part fun and informative for investors. That’s my hot takeaway from hopping on “The Business Essential” podcast hosted by Kartik Raghuram. Give it a listen on Spotify. (Yes, we talk about gas prices).

What pandemic? The WSJ reports that as of today, JPMorgan “planned to discontinue other measures such as mandatory testing for the unvaccinated or asking employees to report COVID-19 infections. It added that it would discontinue its policy of hiring only vaccinated individuals.”

OK then. As Julie Hyman and I talked about after the jobs report on Friday, it’s likely the strong upward revisions and 5.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} increase in wages puts the Fed in play for a 50 basis point rate hike at its May 3-4 meeting. “The case for 50, barring any negative surprise between now and the next meeting, has grown,” San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly told the FT.

By Brian Sozzi an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

What to watch today

Economy

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Factory orders, February (-0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 1.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in January)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders, February final (-2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, -2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in prior print)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, February final (-0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, -0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in prior print)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, February final (-0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in prior print)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: Non-defense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft (0.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in prior print)

Earnings

No notable reports scheduled for release

Politics

  • President Biden will appear alongside some big rigs at the White House at 1:45 p.m. ET to tout the administration’s plan for truckers and their work to strengthen supply chains . Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg will appear alongside Biden.

  • The nomination of Supreme Court judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is set to advance as the Judiciary Committee gathers at 10:00 a.m. ET to vote on her nomination. She is expected to receive a full Senate vote by the week’s end.

  • Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler will deliver keynote remarks at a symposium on “The Future of Crypto & Digital Assets” hosted by the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School beginning at 1:00 p.m. ET

Top News

European markets mixed as EU prepares fresh Russia sanctions [Yahoo Finance UK]

Starbucks’ Schultz announces halt to stock repurchasing program as he returns [Reuters]

UK regulators to review LME halt to chaotic trading [Reuters]

Tesla unable to restart Shanghai production on Monday: Internal memo [Reuters]

Yahoo Finance Highlights

 

Supply chains: ‘Nearshoring’ could be the answer to America’s logistics problems, Deloitte exec says

Student loans: Mom slams Purdue ISA offering as son deals with nearly $100,000 in debt

NIL: Michigan basketball player explains how he built a lucrative TikTok empire

—

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Short sellers are increasing their bets on a stock market crash

Short sellers are increasing their bets on a stock market crash

Will there be a stock marketplace crash in 2022? Most of Wall Street won’t assume so, but brief sellers are absolutely betting on it.

Shorter interest in the S&P 500 grew by 11 foundation points from 2.09{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} among the stop of previous calendar year and mid-March, the most recent details from S&P Worldwide Industry Intelligence reflected. Bets towards stocks across just about every sector in the benchmark except for financials grew by meaningful quantities through the interval as the index corrected from all-time highs before in the calendar year.

Short interest in the S&P 500 grew by 11 basis points from 2.09{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} between the end of last year and mid-March, the latest data from S&P Global Market Intelligence reflected.

Brief desire in the S&P 500 grew by 11 basis points from 2.09{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 2.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} between the finish of last year and mid-March, the latest info from S&P Worldwide Sector Intelligence mirrored.

Wagers in opposition to client discretionary stocks registered the most significant soar, up 74 foundation points to 5.24{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during the three month interval. The increase in limited positions came as regularly larger month-to-month inflation prints pressured need for products.

The vitality sector adopted, logging a leap of 72 foundation points to reach 3.91{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in mid-March — the best stage considering that Oct 2020 — as traders guess skyrocketing oil costs were being unlikely to very last.

Meanwhile, financials observed the smallest raise of any sector, up a mere 9 foundation factors as the banking field stands to profit from fascination rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this calendar year and up coming.

S&P’s report will come as buyers nervously watch a key indicator that the sector may possibly be in for a downturn. The most carefully watched aspect of the yield is flattening and briefly inverted Tuesday in a phenomenon that has a historical keep track of file of predicting recessions, an financial contraction that ordinarily sees stock selling prices plummet.

Even though this may perhaps be a hoorah for short sellers, their bets on a crash seem not likely to pay back off just still.

Deutsche Bank pointed out in a notice that the sector ongoing to rally immediately after the curve inflected in all 6 of the circumstances since 1978 that an inversion transpired. On average, the S&P 500 returned around 19{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the day of the curve inflection to its next peak, and it took a few to 5 months to get to that peak.

The increase in brief curiosity helps make perception. Traders have weathered a turbulent commence to the calendar year wrought by war in Jap Europe, 40-yr substantial inflation, source chain snafus and fascination rate increases from the Federal Reserve. The headwinds were being adequate to drag the S&P 500 into a correction, generally referred to as a drop of far more than 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

Nonetheless, in spite of a belly-churning commence to 2022 the S&P 500 has rebounded 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its cheapest level of the 12 months in early March as of Tuesday’s close and is just 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} shy of notching a new all-time large. Furthermore, the momentum is probably to keep on — at minimum for now, as traders convert the website page on March and head into a new thirty day period.

“The great news is shares truly surface to adore April,” LPL Money main marketplace strategist Ryan Detrick said in a note, pointing out the month has shut green just about every calendar year since 2006 apart from for 2012. “Not only is it the very best thirty day period on ordinary due to the fact 1950, but it has also been increased an incredible 15 of the earlier 16 years as very well.”

—

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Observe her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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Stock futures rise before first session of April, jobs report

Stock futures rise before first session of April, jobs report

U.S. stocks were firmly in the green Friday morning as investors looked ahead to a new month of trading and mulled fresh data out of Washington on the state of the labor market.

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite were each up more than 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} after closing out the final trading of March lower to log their worst quarter since the start of 2020.

Investors on Friday are closely monitoring the Labor Department’s monthly jobs report, the most up-to-date snapshot of the strength in hiring across the U.S. economy. U.S. employers added 431,000 jobs in March. Consensus economists were looking for non-farm payrolls to rise by 490,000, according to Bloomberg data, slowing from February’s 678,000 gain but still marking an increase well above pre-pandemic trends. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} compared to 3.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected — the lowest since February 2020.

Stocks are pushing ahead into April following a volatile month and quarter of trading. The S&P 500 and Dow each dropped more than 4.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the first three months of 2022, closing out their worst quarters — and first quarterly declines — since the first quarter of 2020. The Nasdaq Composite saw the biggest decline, shedding 9.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over the past three-month period, as investors rotated away from the technology and growth stocks that had led the market higher last year.

April has historically been a strong month for stocks, and has in fact produced a positive return for the S&P 500 in 15 of the last 16 years, according to LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick. This time, however, stocks are facing a variety of headwinds that may upend this historically positive seasonality.

Namely, a confluence of concerns around the geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop contributed to stocks’ worst quarterly performance in two years, and have yet to be fully resolved. Geopolitical risks have been elevated since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, raising the specter of further snarls to global supply chains that have already been struggling to recover from pandemic-era disruptions. A broad-based spike in prices, and in oil and energy prices especially, has further stoked concerns over the resilience of the consumer — the key driver of the domestic economy — going forward. And the Federal Reserve has begun a protracted process of raising interest rates and tightening financial conditions in a market that had grown accustomed to easy monetary policy since 2020.

“I think investors are very happy that the quarter is over. It was a tough one. Obviously inflation was bad all the way until … the end of the quarter,” Robert Cantwell, Upholdings portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance Live on Thursday. “And in all likelihood, the next four to six weeks, it’s likely going to continue to be bad news because inflation is persistent, and we’re still comping record growth rates from the first four months of last year.”

“That said, as you get to the second half of next quarter, you could see a scenario where growth rates start accelerating again while inflation tempers, and that has the potential to bring a lot of the bulls back into the market,” he added.

LPL Financial points out that corporate profits may be another component driving the latest rebound in equities. Even in the face of war in Eastern Europe and decades-high inflation, earnings have been holding up, and estimates for S&P 500 Index earnings per share over the next four quarters are higher in March. Although not by much at 1.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, the positive forecast is significant under the circumstances – particularly compared to how other countries have fared. Inflation is driving the more sizable corporate profits as companies enjoy more pricing power as they pass along higher costs to customers.

“On the back of energy independence, the trajectory of U.S. corporate profits has been unaffected by rising energy costs and high inflation so far,” LPL Financial equity strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder noted, adding that conversely, earnings expectations in international markets have fallen in March. “The U.S. profit outlook is the envy of the world right now.”

Elsewhere on the companies front, meme-stock favorite GameStop revealed in a form 8-K filed with the SEC after the bell Thursday that the video-game retailer will seek approval for a stock split at its upcoming shareholder meeting. GME is following a growing list of major companies — Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla — it what could be the “summer of stock splits.” Stock splits are a corporate action taken to improve trading liquidity and make shares more affordable without impacting market capitalization. GME rallied as much as 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in extended trading to a 4-month high of more than $200 per share following the news.

—

9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks rise following March jobs report

Here were the main moves in markets at Friday’s open:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +12.54 (+0.28{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,542.95

  • Dow (^DJI): +74.62 (+0.22{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,752.97

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +70.78 (+0.50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,291.30

  • Crude (CL=F): -$1.01 (-1.01{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $99.27 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$23.10 (-1.18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,930.90 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +9.9 bps to yield 2.4260{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

8:30 a.m. ET: New payrolls come in lower than expected

The U.S. economy notched another sizable payroll gain in March as the labor market extending its strong and speedy recovery to bring employment back to pre-pandemic levels. U.S. employers added 431,000 jobs, lower than the expected 490,000 jobs.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate dropped a more-than-expected two-tenths of one percent, edging closer to the historic low of 3.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} seen in February 2020, Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick noted, though pointing out that the labor force participation rate remains 1 percentage point below its pre-pandemic level.

The labor force participation ticked up slightly to 62.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} after an unexpected jump to 62.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in last month’s data signaled more individuals were returning to look for work or be placed in jobs after being sidelined by COVID-19.

“Beyond the positive March snapshot, the outlook for the next year is for further moderation in jobs creation,” Hamrick said in a note. “Emboldened by exorbitantly high inflation, a hawkish Federal Reserve feels compelled to slam on the brakes. It is hard to imagine how tightening doesn’t ultimately affect the job market.”

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7:14 a.m. ET Thursday: Futures charge higher to kick off April trading

Here were the main moves in futures trading ahead of the open Friday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +22.00 points (+0.49{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,552.75

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +172.00 points (+0.50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,790.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +80.00points (+0.45{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,948.75

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.14 (+0.14{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $100.14 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$21.90 (-1.12{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,932.10 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): 0.00 bps to yield 2.3270{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

6:12 p.m. ET Thursday: Stock futures open slightly higher

Here’s where the major stock index futures opened Thursday evening:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +12.5 points (+0.28{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,543.25

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +100 points (+0.29{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,718.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +51.75 points (+0.35{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,920.50

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 28: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 28, 2022 in New York City. Following a positive week for stocks, the Dow Industrial Average was down over 100 points in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 28: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 28, 2022 in New York City. Following a positive week for stocks, the Dow Industrial Average was down over 100 points in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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Stock market news live updates: March 31, 2022

Stock market news live updates: March 31, 2022

U.S. stocks struggled for direction Thursday after capping a four-day rally to close lower in the previous session amid a backdrop of faded optimism around Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and mixed economic data.

The S&P 500 ticked down about 0.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 100 points. The Nasdaq Composite edged 0.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} lower. The moves come after the S&P 500 and Dow each snapped a four-day winning streak on Wednesday. The Nasdaq has lost momentum after closing at its highest levels since mid-January on Tuesday. Oil prices fell sharply early Thursday after swinging higher in the previous trading day for the first time in three sessions as hopes of a deescalation to the war in Eastern Europe waned. WTI crude oil futures dropped 4.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to about $103 per barrel.

Russian forces continued attacks on Kyiv and northern Ukraine despite reports Moscow pledged to ease its military action in the areas during peace talks in Istanbul earlier this week. As of Wednesday, the number of people in Ukraine who have fled their homes to escape the invasion and seek safety reached 4 million, according to the United Nations.

Stocks have had a turbulent start to the year as a number of headwinds — geopolitical turmoil, rising inflation, supply chain imbalances, and central bank monetary tightening — roil financial markets. Still, the S&P 500 is up 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its lowest level of the year in early March as of Tuesday’s close and just 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} shy of notching a new all-time high after a recent comeback. Based on more than seven decades of data, the momentum is likely to continue even despite some day-to-day choppiness.

“The good news is stocks really appear to love April,” LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said in a note, pointing out the month has closed green every year since 2006 except for 2012. “Not only is it the best month on average since 1950, but it has also been higher an incredible 15 of the past 16 years as well.”

Despite a reassuring outlook for the month ahead, another historical track record has been worrying market participants. Investors are nervously eyeing a flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve, with longer-duration bond yields falling more sharply than those on the short end as traders bet on higher rates from the Federal Reserve in the near-term and weigh a clouded macroeconomic outlook over the longer-term.

The spread, or difference, between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields narrowed to its lowest level since 2019 earlier this week and briefly inverted on Tuesday. The phenomenon has a history of predicting a recession, with each of the last eight recessions dating back to 1969 preceded by a yield curve inversion.

“We want to make sure we don’t get too focused on the yield curve issues where some folks are thinking that’s signaling a recession,” JoAnne Feeney, Advisors Capital Management partner and portfolio manager, told Yahoo Finance Live, however. “We think it’s very dangerous at this point to use historical episodes of yield curve inversion to try to predict what will happen now.”

Feeney pointed to near-record high job openings (the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary [JOLTS] came in at 11.283 million in January) and said the U.S. economy is still coming out of COVID and COVID-type behavior.

More jobs data is underway this week. The Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims due out Thursday is expected to show initial unemployment claims again near a 50-year low, with consensus economists forecasting a reading of 196,000, according to Bloomberg data. Jobless claims will serve as a prelude to the even more consequential monthly unemployment report for March on Friday, expected to show another robust reading of 490,000 payrolls added, per Bloomberg economist estimates. In a busy week for labor market reports, ADP also reported Wednesday private sector payrolls rose by 455,000 in this past month as the economy faced ongoing labor shortages and widespread vacancies.

—

9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks struggle for direction after capping 4-day rally

Here’s how Wall Street’s main benchmarks opened the session on Thursday:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): -6.82 (-0.15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,595.63

  • Dow (^DJI): -98.72 (-0.28{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 35,130.09

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +0.03 (+0.00{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,442.31

  • Crude (CL=F): -$4.61 (-4.28{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $103.21 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$3.70 (+0.19{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,942.70 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -3.5 bps to yield 2.3230{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

8:30 a.m. ET: New jobless claims rise modestly to 202,000 after setting 50-year low

Applications for unemployment insurance were up slightly in the latest weekly data after reaching a more than 50-year low as employers continued to show reluctance in reducing their workforces in the current competitive labor market.

The Labor Department latest weekly jobless claims report showed 202,000 claims were filed in the week ended March 26, coming in above the 196,000 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected.

Weekly unemployment claims edged higher for the first time in three weeks but rose only marginally from multi-decade lows set just last week. At 188,000, last week’s tally for new jobless claims marked the lowest level since September 1969.

The labor market has remained a point of strength in the U.S. economy, with job openings still elevated but coming down from record levels as more workers rejoin the labor force from the sidelines.

—

8:26 a.m. ET: Walgreens tops estimates on boost from Omicron-led rush of vaccines, tests

Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA) revealed better-than-expected quarterly profit and sales for its fiscal second-quarter earnings thanks to high demand for COVID-19 vaccinations and testing during the Omicron-led surge in COVID-19 cases earlier this year.

The pharmacy store chain administered 11.8 million vaccinations and 6.6 million tests in the period ended Feb. 28. Walgreens anticipates performing 30 million vaccinations this year at its sites.

The company’s U.S. pharmacy, however, fell 3.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in the quarter, hurt by a weak performance in its mail-order AllianceRx Walgreens business. Total sales rose 3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $33.77 billion, beating estimates of $33.40 billion.

Excluding items, the company earned $1.59 per share, compared to Bloomberg consensus estimates of $1.37 per share.

Shares were down 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $46.50 a piece in pre-market trading as of 8:26 a.m. ET.

—

7:11 a.m. ET: Contracts on S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq little changed

Here were the main moves in markets ahead of Thursday’s open:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +3.25 points (+0.07{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,599.25

  • Dow futures (YM=F): -12.00 points (-0.03{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 35,105.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +47.00 points (+0.13{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 15,118.50

  • Crude (CL=F): -$6.95 (-06.46{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $100.85 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$4.80 (-0.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,934.20 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): 0.00 bps to yield 2.3580{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

6:16 p.m. ET Wednesday: Futures open flat ahead of final March trading day

Here’s where the major stock index futures opened heading into the overnight session Wednesday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +4.50 points (+0.10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,600.50

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +11.00 points (+0.03{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 35,128.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +31.25 points (+0.21{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 15,102.75

  • Crude (CL=F): -$0.32 (-0.30{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $107.50 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): $0.00 (0.00{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,933.50 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -4.2 bps to yield 2.3580{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

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Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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