After turbulent 2022 for economy, local financial analysts break down what’s in store for new year

After turbulent 2022 for economy, local financial analysts break down what’s in store for new year

Retailers remain giddy from consumer holiday spending, and 9-to-5ers using the last of their vacation days still may not be ready to look toward the next 12 months.

But with each new year comes economic uncertainty, particularly after a 2022 that saw uncompromising inflation and steadily rising interest rates.

To that end, the Tulsa World recently asked a pair of local financial experts to weigh in on what 2023 has in store for people trying to make ends meet.

Here are takes on a number of issues from Brian Henderson, chief investment officer for BOK Financial, and Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management.

In an effort to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve in December raised interest rates for the seventh time in 2022, placing the current fed rate in the range of 4.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}-4.50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, the highest level in 15 years. Are these hikes making a difference?

People are also reading…

DOLLARHIDE: “As painful as higher interest rates are, prolonged inflation is even more painful. It’s kind of like like ripping the Band-Aid off. That’s what the Fed has done this year is rip the Band-Aid off.

“But gas prices peaked in May. Grocery prices seem to be stabilizing. So it is working. What’s spooking the market is the inability to know what the high-water mark is for the Fed. Is it 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} or is it higher?”

HENDERSON: “We are heading in the right direction with re-balancing supply and demand in the economy. Yes, the rate hikes are working but we still haven’t yet felt the full brunt of what the Fed has had to do. Monetary policy operates with some level of a lag.

“In the first quarter, we are going to get a much better sense of the shape of the U.S. economy and what condition it’s in. … I’m expecting another good December as far as growth in the overall economy. Once we get after the first of the year, I’m expecting inflation rates to continue to trend down some.”

Is Oklahoma — and particularly Tulsa — better positioned than other sections of the country to handle this economic rollercoaster?

DOLLARHIDE: “People ask, ‘are we in a recession?’ The answer is probably ‘yes.’ But I don’t think this is an accurate way to view things. Look at oil and gas. When oil went negative $32 a barrel in the fall of 2020, energy was in a recession and tech was in a boom. Now … energy is in a boom and technology is in a recession. There are parts of every city in every state that are doing well and some that are not doing well.

“That’s the way I look at it. Oklahoma is very heavy energy, very heavy health care, very heavy education. These are things that are going to keep on churning during a recession.”

The annual inflation rate for the United States is 7.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, down from a high of 9.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in June. Although inflation seems to be slowing, it remains far above the Fed’s 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} target. How much can we expect it to drop?

HENDERSON: “Two percent is achievable. I hope it’s not necessary for us to have a severe recession to get there. But it certainly is going to require higher unemployment rates and slower economic growth. It’s our forecast that we are going to have less than 1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} economic growth here this year in 2023.”

DOLLARHIDE: “Even the Fed can’t hide the fact that the long-term inflation rate the last 100 years is 3.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. So, I would say the Fed’s real target is 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} at this point. If we get down to 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, I think we will be fine. I think we can be at 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} by summer.”

Workplace retirement plans have taken a substantial hit in this economy. How should we frame this in the long term?

HENDERSON: “In 2022, both stock and bond markets weren’t prepared for the rise in inflation and the subsequent increase in interest rates. That’s why both bond and stock prices that negatively impact 401(k) plans this year were hurt so bad.

“It does make sense to move small percentages one way or the other. If you typically have 70{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in equities and 30{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in bonds, lean more heavily on bonds because they do give you a better level of protection and if we do go into a recession, they are going to perform better than stock.”

What can we look forward to locally in the marketplace in 2023?

DOLLARHIDE: “2020 was a nightmare. No one had a 102-year playbook on a pandemic. 2021 was an amazing year. As for 2022, we have playbooks on inflation. We have playbooks on war. We have playbooks on interest rates. We have playbooks now on COVID and lockdowns and supply-chain restraints. But unfortunately, it wasn’t just interest rates. It was a five-headed monster.

“I think we’re destined for a much better year. Whatever the Fed needs to do, I would say they are 85{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 95{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} done.”

HENDERSON: “Because companies allow the more flexible working arrangements, working from home, we are attracting people from both coasts who are selling their expensive homes, looking for more Tulsa lifestyle and culture. Tulsa is wonderful place to raise a family certainly, and it’s affordable.

“The future is bright for Tulsa.”

Stories by Curtis Killman, Michael Dekker and Randy Krehbiel.



What does Google’s Nebraska announcement mean for Lincoln? | Local Business News

What does Google’s Nebraska announcement mean for Lincoln? | Local Business News

Google’s announcement Thursday that it’s planning a third Omaha-area data center raises the question: What does that mean for the data center proposed in Lincoln?

The world’s largest internet company said it plans to spend $750 million in Nebraska this year, most of it on a new data center on the northwest side of Omaha, near State Street and Blair High Road, and on the continued buildout of a data center in Papillion that started construction in 2019 and is partially operational.


Lincoln entrepreneur shifts gears to help modernize top-secret military information

No mention was made, however, of a potential Lincoln project.

Though no one has publicly admitted Google is the company planning the huge data center complex northwest of the 56th Street exit on Interstate 80, signs point that direction.

A company called Agate LLC owns the nearly 600 acres of land where the data center is proposed, but XXVI Holdings Inc., which is owned by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, applied for tax incentives for the project.

XXVI Holdings Inc. is the same company that applied for tax incentives for the Google data center in Papillion.

People are also reading…

The Lincoln data center was originally proposed in the summer of 2019, and documents submitted to the city at the time suggested that at full buildout it could encompass 2 million square feet of buildings and have nearly 1,000 employees.

The documents estimated construction would start in 2020, with the potential for 160 people to be working in the first buildings by 2022.

However, no construction activity has occurred at the site, although Lincoln Electric System did confirm it has completed preliminary design work for the electrical infrastructure needed for the center.

Officials from the Lincoln Chamber of Commerce and the Lincoln Partnership for Economic Development declined to comment on the project, as did a spokeswoman for the Nebraska Department of Economic Development.

Google also declined to comment on any Lincoln plans.


Lancaster County Board approves special permit for large solar farm east of Lincoln


Exclusive: Google appears to be company behind Lincoln data center

According to documents filed with the City of Omaha, operations for the new data center there will span multiple buildings, totaling more than 1.4 million square feet, along with equipment yards and parking areas. A Google representative estimated construction could last anywhere from 18 to 24 months.

Google’s efforts in Nebraska are part of its plan to invest about $9.5 billion in offices and data centers across the U.S. this year. In a news release, the company also said it will create at least 12,000 new full-time jobs. A representative for the company said Google did not have any new job figures to share for the Omaha area.

The Omaha World-Herald’s Dan Crisler contributed to this report.

A Q&A with 3 longtime Lancaster County small business owners | Local News

Steve Evans describes his business as one that just keeps getting sweeter. 

Since taking the helm of Evans Candy from his parents in 1995, Evans says the business that cranks out a variety of treats off Willow Street Pike south of Lancaster has seen steady year-over-year growth to the point where it’s now quadrupled.

Corporate clients have a lot to do with that. Evans started expanding that part of the business in the early 2000s. His parents – who started making chocolate at home when Evans was young – might get the occasional order from companies buying 30 or 40 boxes for employees. Now companies are ordering in the hundreds for both employees and customers.

“That has been helped by technology. We can do more personalization … (and options that) we can offer businesses either on the chocolate or on the box,” Evans says. “So that has a lot of appeal.”

The Easter rush on the other hand is almost entirely individuals looking to fill some baskets. 

“Almond bark is huge. Chocolate covered pretzels are huge,” he says. Add all the peanut butter-and-chocolate combinations and those are the top seller, he says, but adds that caramel combinations as a group would be a close second.

The workforce shifts a bit with the season but 12 is a typical number, he says.

“It would be a joy to see it remain in the family. We’re working in that direction, though it’s not always foreseeable – all the ins and outs and twists and turns that come along,” Evans says. “I have four of my own children and we have a number of other family involved in the business. I can certainly see it continuing and I would be hopeful for that.”

Here’s how Evans fielded our questions for the longtimers. 

Anything about the pandemic that made it feel like Evans Candy was a new business again? Supply chain comes to mind. You can’t always count on products … so when it’s there, you buy more and figure out ways to store it … And when something’s not there week after week? You’ve got to come up with an alternative …. We’ve been able to navigate the challenges very well. But they’re there. 

Trickiest year for the business pre-pandemic? That’s one of the joys of this business. It comes with a fair amount of predictability, actually. But … as the business grew, I needed somebody to help me oversee production and to have enough skill sets to handle all the different products that we make. Finding the person to fit that role – that would have been one of the bigger challenges. But we have that now. 

Adjective that best describes the climate for small businesses in Lancaster County? Strong. We have enjoyed a really good resurgence of people buying local. They’ll come in and tell us, “We love your product but we’re also really happy to be here to support local. We’re your friends. We’re your neighbors. We’re part of your church. We’re part of the circle of people that you know.” I think that’s one of the beneficial side effects of the pandemic. It kind of brought about a better awareness of all the little shops that are actually close by. When you’re in the business of life and flying from point A to point B, and back to work, and the kids are having school activities, you don’t always stop and look at what’s around you…. And I think by having this slowed-down time, people did take the time to notice. Just a theory. 

Moment you knew you made the right move taking the business? Within the first year or two really. I’d been working with chocolate since I was 4. So that wasn’t too much of a change. The logistics of the business were an adjustment. … But my dad was there to help guide me through. He was great. He told me, “I’m not going to look over your shoulder. You’re calling the shots. I’ll give you advice and my thoughts but I’m not going to question your decisions.”

Best piece of advice for new businesses? Be willing to roll up those sleeves and do what it takes. Get very hands-on with it. There are a lot of long hours. In time, that can pay off. But it’s not going to be glorious at first.

Elizabethtown Sporting Goods

The next time you’re at the kid’s ballgame have a look at the uniforms out on the field. There’s a chance someone with Elizabethtown Sporting Goods put the team logos on those.

ESG has been around for 45-plus years, says Mitch Gibson, whose family bought into the business as owners around 2001. ESG sells customized corporate apparel, organizational clothing, and sports equipment and uniforms. 

Customer or team logos are added to attire via ESG’s three embroidery machines, one automatic screen printing press and two manual presses. Hunting down the right items to put into those machines has lately been a challenge given current supply chain problems.

“I do all the ordering. It used to take me maybe an hour a day. Now it’s about three hours,” Gibson says. “Luckily, we have lots of vendors that we can pull from.” 

Gibson’s business is reliant on a textile industry that in recent decades moved much of its remaining domestic production from the southern United States to plants overseas. 

“Nothing’s made in the U.S. anymore. If it’s coming from Central America, we’re seeing that stock get replenished a little quicker,” he says. “But if it’s coming from China, like hats? This summer it was almost impossible to find hats in certain colors.” 

Gibson says he just keeps looking. 

“Our thing is to be transparent and just make it a good customer atmosphere so that you feel like we care,” he says. “Because we do.” 

Anything about the pandemic that made it feel like you were a new business again? I would say yes. We had to streamline some processes and really reevaluate just how to do business with customers not being able to come in. Thank goodness for the restaurants and landscaping industry because the sports side of it was nonexistent. … A lot of the restaurants wanted to sell shirts because customers were trying to help them out, which helped us as well. …  (That seems to be continuing.) I just did an order for a Manheim restaurant where they’ve been selling lots of shirts. There are two or three down in Lancaster that just ordered a few hundred. They’re in about every three or four months. It can’t all be for their staff. … The sports numbers aren’t back to where they were pre-pandemic. Little Leagues? We do quite a few. I would say their numbers are probably down 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} or 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} at least. It’s just one of those things. We’ll print whatever you need. But they’re seeing it on their end, too. Certain families are not comfortable with whatever their choice is. Or kids aren’t interested. I don’t know. 

Trickiest year for the business pre-pandemic? I’d probably say 2019. We had a quarter-owner that decided to go out on his own. 

Moment you knew you made the right move getting into this business? Probably since my son has been born. The flexibility this offers has been great. … He’s 7. He tried some soccer and he wants to do football next year so it looks like I will be coaching that. We’ll see how that goes. 

Adjective that best describes the climate for small businesses in Lancaster County? Competitive. That’s not just in this business but in general. I’ve seen a lot of competing businesses. It just seems like if ever somebody’s not holding their end up to the customers, you can usually find somebody else to meet your needs. 

Best piece of advice for new businesses? Plan.

Russell Locksmith-Safesmith

Doug Russell was once a kid who loved magic. 

“I did stage magic right up into college. I was into Houdini and lock boxes and strait jackets and all that crazy stuff,” he says. “Then I went to college to be a surgeon.”

After a year he realized he hated college and got a job with a locksmith. 

“My poor parents. I’m not sure my mother ever got over it but my father did,” says Russell, who is now 69. “He got to see his name … on a business. He was very proud of me.” 

That business is Russell Locksmith–Safesmith on Queen Street in Lancaster. Russell opened his company in the mid-’80s after moving into digs where another locksmith had been. 

Among his more glamourous jobs are vault doors – which are what tend to make it onto the business’s Facebook page. Russell says he’s glad he’s had a chance to delve in that business seeing how banks more typically contract with a large national company. 

Master locks for landlords are a big part of his business. So are walk-in customers looking for one or two keys. It seems to Russell some people have made a hobby of losing their keys.

He has no interest in getting involved in electronic car fobs. Another locksmith in town is skilled at those, he says. That’s Bill Neff, who Russell says was in Boy Scouts with him back in the day. 

Russell says he recently made a major investment in equipment that will help him and his staff with locks for which numbers must be keyed in. 

The kind you turn are the ones for which Russell appears to have a particular knack. That comes, he says, from realizing that each lock has its own personality – and also from spending hundreds of hours sitting in front of ones he never got open. 

“You can’t teach experience,” Russell says. “You’ve got to be out there working to get better.” 

Anything about the pandemic that made it feel like you were a new business again? Not really. We did close the shop for a couple months but we do a lot of work for … (a) hospital and all of their facilities. So we were still doing that and some business for real estate. It wasn’t as bad for us as it was for a lot of others. Like the restaurants. I felt so badly for them … We were blessed that we pulled through. It wasn’t like we were making 100{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of what we normally do but it was enough. 

Trickiest year for the business pre-pandemic? I bought the shop in 1985 from … (a locksmith) who had a couple key machines. Nothing great but enough to get me going initially. In the beginning, I was selling soda and candy and anything to make a buck for the family. And of course, it was only me. So anytime I had a service call I’d have to lock the shop up. So the first years were hard. But I was much younger and had the energy to expend … Now there are three of us working here. We’ve been together, oh, probably 25 years … . I often hear all these stories about employees and scheduling problems and I’m glad I don’t have to worry about that. I’ve got the best guys and we just work well together. 

Moment you knew you made the right move opening the business? I just basically always had the God-given talent to figure this stuff out. 

Adjective that best describes the climate for small businesses in Lancaster County? Difficult. If you’re in the trades you can always find work. … But I can’t imagine what it’s like for anyone who can’t go out and do service calls and not worry so much about what’s happening in the shop. 

Best piece of advice for new businesses? Love what you do and work hard at it.

Nashville again seeking new finance director | Local News

Right after several several years of upheaval in its finance division, the Town of Nashville is acquiring back on track and is wanting for a new finance director.

Samantha Sanchez, the town’s newest finance director, resigned productive Sept. 17. She had served in the position comprehensive-time for approximately two years but is transferring on to a new position in the finance department for the City of Wake Forest, Nashville Town Supervisor Randy Lansing explained in a modern interview.

“She has been an great finance director, and we actually loathe to shed her,” Lansing stated. “We had a whole lot of things on the publications that desired to be cleaned up. Ms. Sanchez took time to function with the auditor and get us again on keep track of.”

Nashville is now off the Nearby Govt Commission Watchlist just after investing the very last quite a few decades less than scrutiny. In a recent assertion, Condition Treasurer Dale Folwell introduced that the Community Governing administration Commission experienced taken off 38 entities from its Unit Assistance Record, a monitoring gadget that flags and tracks regional governments and public authorities battling money and governance challenges.

The Town of Nashville was amongst the 27 towns, eight counties and a few utility districts commended for their development. These entities, the statement reported, “had designed these kinds of sizeable advancements that they ended up no extended included on the list.”

“This is extremely superior news for individuals area governments since it provides balance to their operations,” Folwell explained in the assertion. “By maximizing governance, transparency and stewardship of the revenue entrusted to them, these models have demonstrated a route forward that some others can design.”

The city experienced faced censure for particular accounting techniques that placed it on the check out record. In a letter dated Jan. 28, 2020, the fee pointed out improvement but nevertheless experienced worries.

“The team of the Local Governing administration Commission analyzed the audited economical statements of the City of Nashville for the fiscal yr ended June 30, 2019,” the letter said. “We observe that the municipality has created development. Our workplace has obtained the audit for the fiscal year finished June 30, 2019 … We commend the governing board, team and citizens for this improvement. On the other hand, there are continue to major fiscal and operational troubles that have to be addressed in purchase to further more your attempts to strengthen the municipality’s fiscal operations.”

The letter famous special fears about the way transfers ended up manufactured from the town’s drinking water and sewer fund, noting that some ended up unbudgeted transfers manufactured opposite to condition regulation.

There was also concern about the timeliness of document-keeping and reviews throughout the recent interval of upheaval in the Nashville Finance Section.

“We noted different weaknesses about your municipality’s inner controls that were communicated in crafting to you by the auditor,” the letter mentioned. “We are in particular anxious that the auditor noted as a material weak point that reconciliations of considerable accounts were being not performed in a timely way. This item noted by the auditor was identified to support the Board in improving upon the municipality’s total accounting technique. We notice that you have developed a corrective motion program to eradicate these weaknesses. The corrective motion approach that was recognized was insufficient.”

At that level, the auditor’s office environment acknowledged that modern workers troubles in the finance section have been element of the issue but ended up not an justification.

“Despite turnover within employees, lender reconciliations should really be reconciled accurately to the standard ledger monthly. We really encourage the board to keep an eye on the municipality’s progress in applying this strategy and urge you to build a corrective motion prepare to get rid of the other objects discovered by the auditor,” the letter said.

The city has confronted a good deal of turnover in the finance division since previous finance director Linda Modlin was fired at approximately the exact time that former city supervisor Hank Raper was dismissed in June 2018. Modlin served as the town’s finance director from Aug. 19, 2014, to June 29, 2018, but was on administrative leave for the very last handful of months of her tenure.

In accordance to details furnished by Nashville Human Source Director Lou Bunch, Lynne Hobbs served briefly as interim deputy finance director from June 4, 2018, right up until Melonie Bryan was hired to provide as interim finance director on July 30, 2018. Hobbs now is a Nashville town councilwoman.

Bryan served as the town’s interim finance director for the future year. For the duration of this time, Russell Langley was employed as the assistant finance director on Feb. 26, 2019, and was qualified with the intention of owning him get on the posture of finance director subsequent a probation interval.

Even so, Langley resigned on Aug. 26, 2019, ahead of assuming the job, Bunch claimed.

Sanchez was hired on Sept. 30, 2019, and has served as the town’s finance director at any time considering the fact that. In the course of that time, she was mostly responsible for the town’s removal from the LGC enjoy list, Lansing stated.

The city is now promoting for a new finance director. According to the advert posted by the city on its website, city officials are searching for anyone who “is trying to find an seasoned expert with powerful interpersonal and monetary competency skills to oversee the city’s $15 million budget.”

The city also is looking for a person with three to 5 decades of “progressively dependable governmental accounting and fiscal administration knowledge, preferably in a local government environment and supervisory experience.”

The income assortment supplied for the place is $65,000 to $97,418. For a lot more information and facts or to utilize, go to the town’s website.

After pandemic layoffs, a local news company seeks subscribers on Substack.

Examiner Media, a publisher of cost-free weekly newspapers in New York’s Reduce Hudson Valley, has begun a electronic journal, Examiner+, on the electronic platform Substack.

Subscriptions to Examiner+, whose 1st challenge appeared on Tuesday, will charge $5.99 a month or $49.99 a year. In developing a membership publication for Substack, Examiner Media is screening whether a company regarded largely for its ad-supported neighborhood newspapers — a sector of the media company that has struggled tremendously in latest decades — can find achievement by asking viewers to shell out for news information on the internet.

Examiner+ will incorporate posts not offered in Examiner Media’s papers, which consist of The Northern Westchester Examiner and The Putnam Examiner. “It cannot just be a rehash of what we’re by now serving up in print,” explained Robert Schork, the company’s digital editorial director.

He cited a coming aspect on the April closing of the Indian Issue nuclear electrical power plant. Examiner+ also has a profile of the actor Chazz Palminteri, who lately opened Chazz Palminteri Italian Restaurant in White Plains.

Adam Stone started Examiner Media in 2007, the exact year Gannett, the big newspaper chain, shuttered The Patent Trader, a 50-calendar year-old paper in northern Westchester County. Final yr, immediately after pandemic-relevant lockdowns froze marketing and in-human being functions, Mr. Stone slash Examiner Media’s total-time editorial staff to two people from 6. He also solicited resources for the very first time and received far more than $30,000, largely in tiny donations.

“It felt like there was possibility in reader earnings that we weren’t tapping,” he stated.

Credit score…Donna Mueller

Enter Substack. The enterprise money-backed begin-up is greatest regarded for persuading nationally popular writers to go away set up publications and go into enterprise for them selves with subscription newsletters. This spring, it introduced Substack Regional, a $1 million initiative to help local journalism with grants. In June, Examiner Media was chosen as just one of 12 winners, a group that bundled neighborhood information publishers in Australia, Britain, Nigeria, Romania and Taiwan.

“We would not take into consideration ourselves a success if we just took well known people today and made them well-known in a new context,” reported Hamish McKenzie, a Substack co-founder.

A different regionally oriented information publication, The Charlotte Ledger, established two yrs back by the former Charlotte Observer reporter Tony Mecia, has identified results on Substack, with 10,000 subscribers, close to 2,200 of whom are having to pay, he said.

“You listen to a lot of doom and gloom on regional information,” Mr. Mecia mentioned, “but which is generally newspapers. There are people attempting a good deal of interesting issues, and some of it is pretty encouraging.”

Examiner Media will obtain $75,000 from Substack in four installments, as very well as 15 p.c of the very first-yr income for Examiner+, Mr. Stone said. The income assisted Mr. Stone construct the staff members back to 5 whole-time editorial employees. Right after a calendar year, the company’s share of membership revenue will go to 90 percent, the Substack conventional.

“If we can crack the code,” he mentioned, “we can announce the blueprint to the broader globe. All group newspapers could follow this design.”