Why bitcoin may face another 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} plunge in coming weeks, as ‘risk is heightened,’ says prominent technical analyst: ‘We’re watching $37,000.’

Hello, there! I’m stepping in this week for MarketWatch’s crypto reporter Frances Yue.

I’ll walk you through the latest and greatest in digital assets this week so far, as we enter the week before an important meeting of the Federal Reserve and consider its possible impact on bitcoin and other crypto, if any. We’ll also talk about the whipsawing weekend that was and what to expect from here.

Send tips, or feedback, and find us on Twitter at @mdecambre or @FrancesYue_.

But most important, sign up here to get Distributed Ledger delivered fresh to your inbox weekly!

Crypto movers
Biggest Gainers

Price

{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} 7-day Return

Near Protocol (NEAR)

$9.24

12.42

Terra (LUNA)

$67.26

6.95

BitTorrent (BTT)

$0.003313

5.57

UNUS SED LEO (LEO)

$3.70

4.3

Huobi Token (HT)

$9.86

2.54

Source: CoinMarketCap.com of the top 100 as of Dec. 9

Biggest Decliners

Price

{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} 7-day Return

Kadena (KDA)

$10.48

-36.83

Qtum (QTUM)

$10.01

-33.26

THORChain (RUNE)

$7.13

-32.39

Fantom (FTM)

$1.45

-30.50

THETA (THETA)

$4.44

-30.26

Source: CoinMarketCap.com of the top 100 as of Dec. 9

After the crypto crash?

MarketWatch’s Distributed Ledger spoke to Katie Stockton, founder of technical analysis firm Fairfield Strategies, about the crash in crypto over the past weekend. The declines took bitcoin
BTCUSD
to around $42,000 and Ether
ETHUSD
on the Ethereum blockchain to around $3,500 before those digital assets bounced back.

Although Fairlead is fairly bullish long term, over the next six months or so, on the crypto sector, including bitcoin and Ether, Stockton said that some considerable damage had been done to the uptrend in the short to intermediate-term, based on her analysis.

A short-term breakdown in trend was confirmed on Sunday, when bitcoin failed to return to its recent support at $53,000 based on the September high and now that it is hanging well below that level—it was trading at $47,702 on CoinDesk, down 5.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}—another support level of $44,000 needs to be the next point to monitor, with the $37,000 serving as secondary technical support area.

“We feel that risk is heightened near term and even over the next two months or so,” Stockton said.

The popular analyst who uses chart models and gauges of momentum to forecast moves in assets from stocks to crypto said that she feels that the support level for bitcoin at $44,000 will likely be breached and the secondary support level, which defines the recent uptrend in bitcoin, will be a pivotal area for investors to watch in recent trade.

So is there cause to worry about another flash crash? Stockton says that it’s impossible to know for sure but believes that much of the tumble that took place in the wee hours of last Saturday are likely flushed out of the system since it was underpinned by unwinding in derivatives.

Certainly the bulls are hoping that is the case.

Crypto goes to Washington

MarketWatch’s Chris Matthews covered a highly anticipated testimony from some of the biggest names in crypto in front of Washington lawmakers.

Crypto execs, including those from popular digital-asset exchange Coinbase Global Inc.
COIN,
made the case that their technologies hold promise for the future, and that the growth of their more than $2 trillion industry shouldn’t be impeded by wrongheaded legislation.

The nascent industry is hoping to push Congress to create a new regulatory framework for digital assets that could help them avoid a costly showdown with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

“A successful policy framework would allow crypto platforms to offer both spot and derivatives trading on crypto assets under one unified system, with one rule book and one technology platform to manage risks related to all trading activity in customer accounts,” said Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of FTX, told the House Financial Services Hearing on crypto markets.

Officials from Circle Internet Financial Ltd., issuer of a stablecoin crypto, bitcoin-mining firm Bitfury Group Ltd., cryptocurrency-payments system, Stellar Development Foundation, and blockchain firm Paxos Trust Co. also testified.

The Wall Street Journal reported that one of the main concerns among those lawmakers wary of crypto is that its rapid growth poses a threat to financial stability, is rife with fraud and manipulation, and isn’t environmentally friendly since mining virtual coins uses lots of real energy.

Crypto shares

In crypto-related company trading, shares of Coinbase Global Inc. traded down 9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $287 Thursday afternoon. It was down 1.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the past five trading sessions. Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Inc.
MSTR
 traded 6.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} lower on Thursday to $595.58, and was down 5.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over the past five days.

Mining company Riot Blockchain Inc.
RIOT
shares fell 9.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $26, contributing to an 6.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} loss over the past five days. Shares of Marathon Digital Holdings Inc.
MARA
were down nearly 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 41.72, but were up 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over the past five days. Another miner Ebang International Holdings Inc
EBON.
fell 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $1.33, but was up 2.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over the past five days.

Overstock.com Inc
OSTK.
 traded down 3.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $78.57. The shares went down 2.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over the five-session period.

Square Inc.’s shares
SQ
fell 4.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $186.85, paring its week-to-date gain to 3.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. Tesla Inc.’s shares
TSLA
 traded down 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $1,015, trading flat for the week.

PayPal Holdings Inc.
PYPL
 fell 2.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $192.72, while it recorded a 4.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} gain over the five-session stretch. NVIDIA Corp.
NVDA
meanwhile, slumped 3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $308.72, but was looking at a 0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} advance over the past five days.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD
 was off 4.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $139.04 and logged a 3.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} loss over the past five trading days, as of Thursday afternoon.

In the fund space, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF
BITO
were 6.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} lower to $30.29 Thursday, and was down nearly 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the week thus far, while Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF
BTF
was down 5.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, with a week-to-date skid of nearly 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF
XBTF
fell 6.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and was showing a nearly 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} weekly drop, as of Thursday afternoon.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
GBTC
 was trading to $37.44, off 7.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} late-afternoon Thursday, heading for a weekly loss of 10.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

Read: Grayscale Investment wants its largest bitcoin trust to be an ETF. A miscue briefly made its wish come true.

Must reads

Ray Dalio says cash is not a safe place right now despite heightened market volatility

Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio stood by his belief that cash is not the place to be despite the volatility in the markets triggered by the new Covid omicron variant.

“Cash is not a safe investment, is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation,” the founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

During turbulent times, it’s also important to be in a safe, well-balanced portfolio, the billionaire investor said.

“You can reduce your risk without reducing your returns. You will not market-time this. Even if you were a great market timer, the things that are happening can change the world, so it changes what could be priced into the market,” Dalio said.

The omicron strain of the coronavirus, first identified in South Africa, rattled the stock market on Black Friday after the World Health Organization labeled it a “variant of concern.” The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 900 points Friday to suffer its worst day since October 2020. Stock futures indicated another big down day following a rebound Monday on Wall Street as investors monitored the ongoing health crisis.

The stock market rebounded swiftly from the pandemic bottom in March 2020 thanks to the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures the government and the Federal Reserve orchestrated to support the economy. However, the excess money supply in the system could create certain economic and political problems, Dalio said.

“You can’t raise living standards by raising the amount of money in credit in the system because that’s just more money chasing the same amount of goods,” he said. “It will affect financial markets in the ways we’ve seen and it will affect the inflation rate. It won’t raise living standards in an important way. As inflation then begins to bite, it has political consequences.”

A key inflation gauge spiked in October, accelerating at its fastest pace since the early 1990s. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy, a measure closely followed by Federal Reserve policymakers, rose 4.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. 

The central bank has been wrestling with inflation that has been more aggressive and persistent than they had anticipated. Officials have said they believe inflation is at the point where they can start gradually reducing the amount of monthly stimulus they are providing through bond purchases.

“What we are seeing happen has played out many, many times in history; it’s like watching the movie over again,” Dalio said.