Tag: Fed

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Stocks trade mixed as investors await Fed

Stocks trade mixed as investors await Fed

U.S. stocks were mixed Tuesday after a whipsaw session in markets a day earlier, as investors appraised the next moves by the Federal Reserve and a fresh batch of quarterly earnings results.

The S&P 500 and Dow rose, while the Nasdaq dipped just after market open. On Monday, technology stocks had outperformed, leading the S&P 500 higher by 0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, and the Nasdaq up by 1.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. And these moves in tech shares came even as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield topped 3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, or its highest level since December 2018. In recent months, a rise in yields has coincided with a drop in tech shares, which are considered more vulnerable to higher rates that would weigh on growth stocks’ valuations.

The market moves at the start of this week extended the streak of volatile trading investors have endured over the past several weeks. The S&P 500 posted an 8.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} decline in April for its worst month since March 2020.

“Volatility skews in both directions. In this period when we expect heightened volatility because of all of the confluence of factors that we see from geopolitics to earnings to the Fed to inflation, you’re going to have big swings like this,” Ross Mayfield, Baird investment strategy analyst, told Yahoo Finance Live. “I think at a certain point, buyers do see some value in there. If you’re of the opinion that we’re not going to enter a recession … I think you start to see some value investors start to take some bites.”

Still, given the variety of concerns still present for the market outlook, many strategists have struck a more cautious tone on U.S. stocks for the near-term. In a note published Friday, Bank of America strategists led by Savita Subramanian slashed their price target on the S&P 500 by 100 points to 4,500.

“This year’s market does not appear to be dominated by one factor, be it fundamentals or positioning, cost of capital or corporate outlooks, but has been reacting to all of the above in big swings,” the analysts wrote.

And this week, investors are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision, which is set to include measures intended to accelerate the central bank’s fight to bring down elevated inflation, even at the expense of some economic growth. Investors are looking for the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points for the first time since 2000, and to officially announce the timing of the start of quantitative tightening, or the rolling of assets off the Fed’s $9 trillion balance sheet.

“There’s no doubt that there’s some anticipation out there of [Fed officials’] comments and their action,” Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder, told Yahoo Finance Live. “We’re seeing that in the marketplace. It’s very, very skittish, and probably reasonably so.”

“I think we all kind of know what’s coming. And yet sometimes that doesn’t matter. Sometimes the market comes into it and it can be deeply oversold,” she added. “I think it’s a pretty risky assumption to make in this kind of environment … I mean there’s hardly any stocks that have been unturned by the recent weakness. So I think we have to keep those risks in mind as we come into the numbers.”

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10:12 a.m. ET: Job openings race to a record high of more than 11.5 million in March

U.S. job openings rose to a record level in March, with labor demand still outpacing supply across many firms throughout the country.

Job openings increased to 11.549 million in March, the Labor Department said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) on Tuesday. Job openings had totaled 11.344 million in February, according to the revised monthly print. Consensus economists were looking for job openings to decline to 11.200 million for March, according to Bloomberg data.

The number of vacancies across the U.S. economy has far outpaced the number of hires, which were little changed month-on-month at 6.7 million in March. And the number of quits also edged up to a record high of 4.5 million, with the quits rate hovering little changed at 3.0{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

—

9:33 a.m. ET: Stocks open mixed, Nasdaq declines

Here were the main moves in markets as of 9:33 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +6.18 (+0.15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,161.56

  • Dow (^DJI): +82.06 (+0.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 33,143.56

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): -22.02 (-0.18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 12,513.99

  • Crude (CL=F): -$1.90 (-1.81{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $103.27 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$0.20 (+0.01{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,863.80 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -7 bps to yield 2.9260{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

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8:37 a.m. ET: Clorox shares fall after company lowers full-year outlook on rising prices

Shares of Clorox (CLX) dipped in early trading Tuesday morning after the consumer staples company lowered its full-year profit guidance, which overshadowed otherwise upbeat results from its latest quarter.

For the fiscal third quarter, Clorox posted adjusted earnings of $1.31 on revenue of $1.81 billion. Both metrics topped consensus expectations, with Wall Street looking for adjusted earnings of 93 cents per share on revenue of $1.79 billion, according to Bloomberg data. However, Clorox’s gross margins contracted over last year, reaching 35.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from 43.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, “due mainly to higher manufacturing and logistics and commodity costs, partially offset by the benefits of pricing and cost savings initiatives,” according to Clorox’s press statement.

And these cost pressures are expected to linger for the rest of this year. Clorox said it expects full-year gross margins to decrease by up to 800 basis points, or 8 percentage points, due to “higher than previously anticipated commodity and manufacturing and logistics costs.” Full-year adjusted earnings per share are expected to between $4.05 and $4.30, down from a previous guidance range of between $4.25 and $4.50.

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7:21 a.m. ET: Tuesday: Stock futures hold lower

Here’s where markets were trading Tuesday morning:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -17.5 points (-0.42{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,133.50

  • Dow futures (YM=F): -141 points (-0.43{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 32,839.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -56 points (-0.43{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 13,017.00

  • Crude (CL=F): -$1.38 (-1.31{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $103.79 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$4.10 (-0.22{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,859.50 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -2.3 bps to yield 2.973{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

6:01 p.m. ET Monday: Stock futures open slightly lower

Here’s where markets were trading Monday evening:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -6 points (-0.14{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,145.00

  • Dow futures (YM=F): -50 points (-0.15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 32,930.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -27.25 points (-0.21{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 13,045.75

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 02, 2022 in New York City. After falling over 600 points on Friday, stocks were up slightly in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MAY 02: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 02, 2022 in New York City. After falling over 600 points on Friday, stocks were up slightly in morning trading. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

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Stocks rise as traders look ahead to Fed, earnings

Stocks rise as traders look ahead to Fed, earnings

U.S. stocks turned higher in the first session of May following one of the worst monthly performances for the S&P 500 since the depths of the pandemic in 2020.

The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each rose intraday Monday, shaking off some losses from just after the opening bell. U.S. crude oil prices fell to hover above $101 per barrel, and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield held above 2.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, or near its highest level since December 2018.

Investors this week are bracing for more potentially market-moving events to take place following April’s volatile stretch of trading. The S&P 500 sank by 8.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in April for its worst monthly performance since March 2020. Tech stocks especially were battered, and the Nasdaq Composite slid by 13{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} last month for its worst since October 2008.

The Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy-setting meeting will be especially closely watched in the days ahead, with the central bank poised to release its latest policy statement and hold a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell Wednesday afternoon. Market participants expect the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points at the end of this meeting, marking the first rate hike of that magnitude since 2000. This would follow the 25 basis-point rate hike the Fed carried out in March, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to between 0.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and 0.50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and raising the low end of the range above zero for the first time since March 2020.

The Fed is also expected to formally announce that it will begin quantitative tightening, or rolling assets off of its $9 trillion balance sheet. The central bank had scooped up assets and added to its balance sheet over the course of the pandemic as another means of helping support the virus-stricken economy. However, expectations for the undoing of this build have stirred up volatility after markets became accustomed to these easy money policies.

And with U.S. GDP growth turning negative for the first time since mid-2020 in the first quarter of this year, some pundits have begun to question whether the Fed will be able to tighten monetary policies without setting off a deeper downturn in economic activity.

“Recession risk has risen, and the financial health of the private sector may ultimately determine whether policy tightening will tilt the economy into a downturn,” Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note Sunday. “Financial fragility in the private sector has historically amplified the impact of the headwinds confronting today’s expansion: higher interest rates, rapid wage inflation, and slowing growth.”

Meanwhile, earnings season will also press on this week, with a number of closely watched companies from Airbnb (ABNB) to Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) and Block Inc. (SQ) each reporting results. Heading into this week, 55{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of S&P 500 components had reported actual first-quarter results, and of these, 80{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} topped earnings per share estimates, while 72{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} exceeded revenue expectations, according to data from FactSet.

The expected earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies in aggregate has also now risen to 7.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, up from the 4.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} seen at the end of March, FactSet noted. Still, if 7.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} remains the actual earnings growth rate for the index in the first quarter, it would mark the slowest rate since the fourth quarter of 2020.

—

9:32 a.m. ET: Stocks open mixed

Here were the main moves in markets as of 9:32 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +3.80 (+0.09{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,135.73

  • Dow (^DJI): +80.64 (+0.24{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 33,057.85

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): -6.49 (-0.05{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 12,328.15

  • Crude (CL=F): -$2.96 (-2.83{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $101.73 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$48.30 (-2.53{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,863.40 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +7.2 bps to yield 2.9590{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

7:43 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures head for a higher open

Here’s where markets were trading Monday morning ahead of the opening bell:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +7.5 points (+0.18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,135.00

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +89 points (+0.27{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 32,971.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +27.75 points (+0.22{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 12,879.75

  • Crude (CL=F): -$2.95 (-2.82{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $101.74 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): -$32.40 (-1.69{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,879.30 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3.5 bps to yield 2.92{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - APRIL 28: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 28, 2022 in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up in morning trading as markets continued to move through a period of volatility over inflation concerns and the war in Ukraine. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – APRIL 28: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 28, 2022 in New York City. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up in morning trading as markets continued to move through a period of volatility over inflation concerns and the war in Ukraine. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

—

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

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Stocks fall for a second day, Nasdaq slides another 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} as Fed gives policy tightening plans

Stocks fall for a second day, Nasdaq slides another 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} as Fed gives policy tightening plans

Stocks fell for a second working day on Wednesday and premiums soared to new heights right after the Federal Reserve gave more advice on how speedy it will tighten financial plan to battle inflation, increasing considerations it may well gradual the economic system.

The Dow Jones Industrial Ordinary fell 144.67 factors, or .42{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, to 34,496.51. The S&P 500 slid .97{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 4,481.15, and the Nasdaq Composite sank an additional 2.22{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 13,888.82 immediately after falling about 2.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} on Tuesday.

“It was a warning to any individual who thinks that the Fed is likely to be extra dovish in their fight towards inflation,” stated Quincy Krosby, main equity strategist at LPL Economic. “Their information is, ‘You’re improper.'”

The Fed’s release of its assembly minutes indicated on Wednesday afternoon that officers “typically agreed” it need to shrink its equilibrium sheet by $95 billion for each thirty day period. The minutes also confirmed central bank officers were being thinking of larger sized price hikes than the usual 25-foundation-place, or quarter-level, increments. Shares dipped to session lows just after the release of the minutes but bounced back somewhat to close the day.

“Lots of contributors famous that — with inflation effectively earlier mentioned the Committee’s aim, inflationary pitfalls to the upside, and the federal funds price very well below participants’ estimates of its longer-operate level — they would have most well-liked a 50 basis place enhance in the goal array for the federal resources amount at this meeting,” the minutes explained.

Meanwhile, the 10-calendar year Treasury yield jumped previously mentioned 2.65{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to a 3-calendar year higher on Wednesday and remained close to that large following the launch of the Fed meeting minutes. The level finished Monday at 2.40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The minutes were from the Fed’s March conference when it elevated prices by a quarter issue and indicated six additional hikes of that magnitude have been coming this 12 months.

“I imagine the inventory current market is finding the strategy that $60 billion Treasurys and $35 billion in home loans is setting up to get authentic,” reported James Caron of Morgan Stanley Financial investment Management. “If they do a further 50 foundation points hike in Could and yet another 50 in June, it is really starting to get additional actual. It is surely not a tailwind for stocks.”

Tech shares led Wednesday’s slide, slipping all over again for a next day as traders rotated out of the group and braced for greater costs to sluggish the overall economy. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla contributed to the sector’s decrease. Chipmakers like Nvidia and Marvell Technology also continued their descent, falling about 5.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and 2.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, respectively.

Traders ongoing to look for for shares with stable profits, shying absent from all those offering long run progress. Utilities, wellbeing treatment and purchaser staples sectors continued to climb Wednesday, with Amgen and Johnson & Johnson rising extra than 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} just about every. Purchaser staples this sort of as Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble inched far more than 1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} larger. Walmart jumped 2.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

“These days and yesterday you’re seriously beginning to see the equity marketplace catch up with the bond current market,” said Chris Zaccarelli, CIO at Unbiased Advisor Alliance. “And by that, I suggest equities are beginning to rate in a a lot more aggressive Fed. You might be starting off to see a bid for basic safety, you happen to be seeing that common danger-off shift.”

Inventory picks and investing developments from CNBC Pro:

Officials in latest times have tried using to warn buyers even speedier policy tightening could be ahead. The findings, coupled with latest remarks from Fed Governor Lael Brainard and other individuals, seemed to sign that sentiment.

Earlier Wednesday, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said that he is “acutely concerned” about soaring inflation, noting that he expects “a series of deliberate, methodical hikes as the yr proceeds and the info evolve.”

His reviews come less than a day following Brainard indicated support for higher fascination charges and stated a “speedy” reduction of the central bank’s stability sheet could arrive as before long as May well. The remarks pushed shares reduce in the previous session.

“It is of paramount significance to get inflation down,” Brainard stated in the course of a Minneapolis Fed webinar. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed related sentiments toward inflation on Tuesday.

“What that implies for the marketplaces are ongoing volatility around the uncertainty to greater costs and reduced-revenue cash move stocks, growth variety stocks possibly continuing to get discounted as fees increase,” Cliff Corso of Advisors Asset Management stated on CNBC’s “Globally Exchange.”

Earnings in advance

Traders were also bracing Wednesday for the start out of the corporate earnings season.

Goldman Sachs chief U.S. fairness strategist David Kostin stated Wednesday on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Avenue” that shares with “resilient margins” are much better prepared to climate the present-day surroundings. That contains names this sort of as Alphabet and Nike — which have managed “higher and stable margins” even amid the pandemic, he reported.

“Total, the U.S. equities market probably has 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} upside from these likes between now and the close of the 12 months,” Kostin explained. “Really should we be likely into a recession it will be significant downside, but which is not the base situation suitable now.”

— CNBC’s Patti Domm and Jeff Cox contributed reporting

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Fed must ‘inflict more losses’ on stock-market investors to tame inflation, says former central banker

Fed must ‘inflict more losses’ on stock-market investors to tame inflation, says former central banker

So considerably for the Fed set.

“‘It’s really hard to know how a great deal the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to do to get inflation less than handle. But a single point is specified: To be helpful, it’ll have to inflict far more losses on inventory and bond investors than it has so much.’”


— Monthly bill Dudley, previous New York Fed president

That’s William Dudley, the former president of the potent New York Fed, arguing in a visitor column at Bloomberg that his previous colleagues will not get a deal with on inflation that’s functioning at all over a 40-year large until they make buyers put up with.

There are myriad uncertainties the Fed have to navigate, he acknowledged, such as the effect of easing offer-chain disruptions and a traditionally tight labor marketplace. But the consequences of the Fed’s tightening of monetary policy on monetary ailments — and the the influence that tightening will have on economic action — is a single of the major unknowns, Dudley wrote.

Compared with quite a few other economies, the U.S. doesn’t reply straight to modifications in shorter-phrase desire fees, Dudley mentioned, partly for the reason that most U.S. home prospective buyers have extensive-expression, preset-fee mortgages. But numerous U.S. homes, also in contrast to other countries, have a significant amount of money of their prosperity in equities, which helps make them delicate to money conditions.

Dudley’s simply call for the Fed to inflict losses on traders stands in contrast to the longstanding idea of a figurative Fed place, the concept that the central lender would halt monetary tightening or normally ride to the rescue in the celebration of major losses in monetary markets. Dudley, who ran the New York Fed from 2009 to 2018, was earlier main U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs and is now a senior investigation scholar at Princeton University’s Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Go through: Fed lays out a tentative program to shrink its balance sheet by $95 billion a month, probably as early as May possibly

Investors have talked of a figurative Fed put considering the fact that at least the October 1987 inventory-sector crash prompted the Alan Greenspan-led central bank to decreased fascination fees. An precise set option is a monetary by-product that provides the holder the proper but not the obligation to provide the fundamental asset at a set level, identified as the strike rate, serving as an insurance coverage from a market decrease.

Shares have missing floor in 2022, partly in response to the Fed’s signals that it is prepared to be aggressive in elevating curiosity fees and shrinking its harmony sheet to get inflation beneath regulate. But losses continue being modest, with the S&P 500
SPX,
-.97{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
fewer than 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} away from its Jan. 3 history close as of Tuesday’s complete. The Dow Jones Industrial Typical
DJIA,
-.42{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
is down 5.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the 12 months to day, while the Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-2.22{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996},
built up of a lot more fee-sensitive tech and progress shares, has fallen far more than 11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

The pain has been much more powerful in the bond market. Treasury yields, which shift the reverse way of rates, have soared, albeit from traditionally lower concentrations. Initial-quarter losses in the bond marketplace ended up the worst in a quarter century.

Continue to, the 10-calendar year Treasury generate
TMUBMUSD10Y,
2.598{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
previously mentioned 2.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} stays up all-around just .75 proportion position from a 12 months ago and remains effectively under the inflation charge, Dudley stated. That is due to the fact traders expect bigger short-term costs to undermine financial expansion and drive the Fed to reverse program in 2024 and 2025, he mentioned — “but these quite expectations are avoiding the tightening of economical ailments that would make these an final result far more likely.”

Have to have to Know: Here’s the very first Wall Road economic downturn get in touch with of the new inflation period

Investors should listen to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Dudley stated, who has obviously stated that money problems have to tighten.

“If this doesn’t transpire on its have (which would seem not likely), the Fed will have to shock the sector to reach the wanted reaction,” Dudley said. That would mean mountaineering prices substantially larger than marketplace participants at present anticipate simply because the Fed, “one way or another, to get inflation less than control…will need to have to press bond yields higher and inventory charges reduced.”

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Stocks dip as investors digest hawkish Fed remarks, eye more sanctions

Stocks dip as investors digest hawkish Fed remarks, eye more sanctions

U.S. stocks fell Wednesday as investors eyed more Western sanctions against Russia and digested hawkish remarks from key monetary policymakers. These suggested that more members of the Federal Reserve were open to moving aggressively to raise interest rates and bring down demand and persistently elevated levels of inflation.

The S&P 500 dropped, adding to losses after the blue-chip index ended Tuesday’s session lower by 1.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq also extended declines. In the bond market, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to top 2.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, marking its highest level since May 2019.

Developments on Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Western response remained in focus Wednesday as the U.S., European Union and Group of Seven readied another round of sanctions on the Kremlin. The U.S. is expected to add penalties to more Russian government officials and family members, and Russian-owned enterprises and financial institutions.

Meanwhile, hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials also knocked U.S. equities from their latest march higher and send Treasury yields spiking.

Namely, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Tuesday that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was “prepared to take stronger action” should already elevated indicators of inflation rates and expectations warrant such moves.

Speaking in a webcast, Brainard suggested this could include aggressive interest rate hikes and a much quicker drawdown of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet — which has thus far ballooned to nearly $9 trillion — than in previous periods.

“Given that the recovery has been considerably stronger and faster than in the previous cycle, I expect the balance sheet to shrink considerably more rapidly than in the previous recovery, with significantly larger caps and a much shorter period to phase in the maximum caps compared with 2017–19,” Brainard said. She noted the process of reducing the Fed’s balance sheet holdings, or beginning quantitative tightening, could begin as soon as the Fed’s next meeting in May.

Other Fed members also suggested they were on board with more policy tightening in the near-term. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the Financial Times on Tuesday that the case for a 50 basis-point interest rate hike — or a hike double the size of the central bank’s typical per-meeting increase — “has grown.”

“The fact is, the Fed has made it very clear … it’s paramount that they go after inflation and do whatever it takes to staunch the rise in inflation,” Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial, told Yahoo Finance Live. “They’re going to do it, and I think the market is getting the sense that this is going to be a choppy path.”

“The Fed may go until it breaks something … but it’s clear that this is their mission, and they are going to go ahead with it, full steam – more than 2017, more than 2018,” she added, referring to the last time the Federal Reserve underwent quantitative tightening several years ago.

With inflation rates in the U.S. still holding at around 40-year highs and forcing the Fed’s hand in aggressively tightening financial conditions, some on Wall Street have downgraded their expectations for U.S. and global growth. Deutsche Bank economists said Tuesday they expected the U.S. to tip into a recession at the end of next year as the Fed rapidly hikes rates to address high prices.

“We now expect the U.S. economy to be in outright recession by late next year, and the [Euro area] in a growth recession in 2024 with unemployment edging up,” Deutsche Bank economists David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Hooper said. “Our baseline view is that these developments will spill over to damp growth in much of the rest of the world and at the same time help to bring inflation back toward mandated levels, diminishing the risk of greater disruptions further down the road.”

Still, the economists noted their call for a recession next year “is currently way out of consensus” — and indeed, many on Wall Street still see a slowdown, but not necessarily a period of negative growth in the near-term domestically.

“We’re not thinking that the Fed is going to push the economy into recession,” Veronica Willis, Wells Fargo Investment Institute investment strategy analyst, told Yahoo Finance Live on Tuesday. “I think most are not expecting that. But we are expecting kind of a slowdown in economic growth from what we had expected previously, but still around average economic growth here in the U.S.”

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9:45 a.m. ET: Bitcoin prices dip below $45,000, pulling down crypto-linked stocks

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) prices fell below $45,000 for the first time since last week on Wednesday, bringing shares of cryptocurrency-linked stocks including Coinbase (COIN), Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) lower as well.

Bitcoin prices have been on a roller-coaster ride this year, tracking the volatility across other risk assets as geopolitical and monetary policy concerns increased. Prices began the year around $48,000 for the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, but dipped as low as below $35,000 so far this year.

Other major cryptocurrencies including Ethereum (ETH-USD), XRP (XRP-USD) and Solana (SOL-USD) also dipped Wednesday morning.

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9:39 a.m. ET: JetBlue shares drop after airline makes competing bid for Spirit

JetBlue (JBLU) shares dropped Wednesday morning after the carrier made an offer to purchase Spirit Airlines (SAVE) — less than two months after the budget airline agreed to merge with Frontier Group (ULCC).

JetBlue stepped in with $3.6 billion offer to buy Spirit Airlines, with the all-cash deal coming out to $33 per outstanding Spirit share. The combined company would have a fleet of 450 aircraft with another 312 Airbus aircraft to be delivered over the next six years, and would bring more flights to hubs including New York and Florida, where both airlines already operate.

However, in February, Frontier Group made its own bid to buy Spirit for $2.9 billion, in a deal the companies said at the time would save customers about $1 billion per year. JetBlue said in its press release this morning that its offer was a “superior proposal” and that it would be “more effective than Ultra-Low-Cost Carriers in Introducing Competition and Bringing Down Legacy Carrier Fares.”

Wall Street, however, has expressed skepticism over a JetBlue-Spirit tie-up.

“The merits of a potential JetBlue-Spirit merger are not as abundantly clear to us as are those that could stem from other combinations among remaining, non-Big 3 airlines,” JPMorgan airline analyst Jamie Baker wrote in a note this morning.

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9:31 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower, Treasury yields surge

Here’s where markets were trading Wednesday morning:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): -36.19 (-0.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,488.93

  • Dow (^DJI): -229.02 (-0.66{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,412.16

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): -178.10 (-1.27{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,023.64

  • Crude (CL=F): +$0.51 (+0.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $102.57 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$2.20 (+0.11{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,929.70 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +7.7 bps to yield 2.631{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

8:00 a.m. ET: Mortgage applications fall for fourth straight week as rates rise further

U.S. mortgage applications dropped for a fourth consecutive week into the beginning of April, with fast-rising mortgage rates deterring homeowners from refinancing and new buyers from coming into the market.

The Mortgage Bankers Associations’ weekly index showed mortgage applications fell 6.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} week-on-week during the period ending April 1. This came following a 6.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} drop during the prior week.

Refinances fell 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the previous week and by 62{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the same week last year, bringing overall applications for refinances down to the lowest level since spring 2019. Purchases fell 3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} week-over-week on a seasonally unadjusted basis, and declined 9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the comparable period last year.

“Mortgage application volume continues to decline due to rapidly rising mortgage rates, as financial markets expect significantly tighter monetary policy in the coming months. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased for the fourth consecutive week to 4.90{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and is now more than 1.5 percentage points higher than a year ago,” Joel Kan, MBA associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a press statement Wednesday.”

“The hot job market and rapid wage growth continue to support housing demand, despite the surge in rates and swift home-price appreciation,” Kan added. “However, insufficient for-sale inventory is restraining purchase activity.”

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7:16 a.m. ET: Stock futures fall

Here’s where markets were trading Wednesday morning:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -38 points (-0.84{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,482.25

  • Dow futures (YM=F): -214 points (-0.62{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,336.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -203 points (-1.37{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,625.00

  • Crude (CL=F): +$1.42 (+1.39{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $103.38 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$4.70 (-0.24{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,922.80 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +8.3 bps to yield 2.637{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

6:10 p.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures edge higher

Here’s where markets were trading Tuesday evening as the overnight session began:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +5.25 points (+0.12{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,525.50

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +34 points (+0.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,584.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +25.75 points (+0.17{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,853.75

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – MARCH 30: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on March 30, 2022 in New York City. U.S. stocks opened low after rallying to start the week. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter.

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Stocks climb as investors keep eyes on Fed, Russia-Ukraine crisis

Stocks climb as investors keep eyes on Fed, Russia-Ukraine crisis

U.S. stocks rose Thursday as investors continued to weigh a number of risks, including the Federal Reserve’s inflation flight and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 4,472.77, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up slightly by 0.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 34,407.87. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 13,976.95.

In Russia, the Moscow Exchange partially reopened Thursday after a nearly monthlong shutdown to resume local trading in 33 securities, including oil giant Gazprom and Russian majority state-owned financial institution Sberbank. The Central Bank banned short-selling on stocks, however, and prohibited foreign investors from selling stocks. The benchmark MOEX index (IMOEX.ME) gained as much as 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in early trading.

The White House in a statement early Thursday called the re-opening a “charade,” and noted the government was “artificially propping up the shares of companies that are trading.”

Investors continue to monitor developments on the conflict in Eastern Europe and the global response. President Joe Biden is set to convene with NATO allies in Brussels in a meeting that will set the stage for the announcement of more sanctions against Russia and greater humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

Wednesday marked two years since the S&P 500 bottomed in the 2020 global stock market crash after the World Health Organization moved to declare COVID-19 an official pandemic. Since then, the benchmark has registered its best two-year gain — more than 100{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the low — since 1937, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.

Although the recovery makes the period the best two-year bull run in history in terms of strength, per Bespoke, U.S. stocks have had a rocky start to 2022 amid a backdrop of growing headwinds.

Historically high levels of inflation have tasked the Fed with reining in surging price levels without slowing economic growth. Stocks have oscillated between gains and losses as traders adjusted to hawkish comments earlier this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that indicated officials were prepared to lean into higher short-term interest rates “as needed” to mitigate fast-rising price levels. Powell’s comments come just a week after the central bank lifted its benchmark Federal Funds Rate by 0.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} (to a target range of 0.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 0.50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}).

“Policymakers were more hawkish than anticipated, exceeding estimates for interest rates and inflation, while reducing forecasts for economic growth,” Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer John Lynch said in a note.

Since 1958, the last nine interest rate tightening campaigns have seen the S&P 500 register less than average returns of roughly 3.0{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in the one-year period following the initial rate hike, Lynch pointed out. However, the index has shown the propensity to climb for more than three years following the initial rate hike, with annualized returns of about 18.0{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

“The era of quantitative easing is seemingly over, and quantitative tightening has begun,” Lynch said. “Though the policy dynamics are shifting, we encourage investors to continue to focus on the long-term fundamentals supporting growth in the economy and corporate profits.”

Tightening also risks bringing the yield curve, the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates of fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury, closer to inverting. An inverted yield curve, when the short-term rates exceed the long-term rates, has been a signal of a pending economic recession in the past.

“With an economy in late cycle, fears of impending slowdown make defensive sectors relatively more attractive,” Commonwealth Financial Network global investment strategist Anu Gaggar said in commentary. “Thus, for an equity investor, it is imperative to pick your spots carefully.”

“While a paring back of equities may not be necessary, a defensive relative positioning going into a possible slowdown may help investors ride the wave,” he added.

Despite the Fed’s move to raise rates providing some temporary clarity to traders who for months have awaited steps forward on monetary tightening, geopolitical turmoil in Eastern Europe and its economic toll continue to muddy the bank’s path ahead in fighting inflation.

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9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open higher to extend string of recent swings in U.S. equities

Here were the main moves in markets at the start of trading Thursday:

  • S&P 500 (^GSPC): +20.28 (+0.46{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,476.52

  • Dow (^DJI): +100.32 (+0.29{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,458.82

  • Nasdaq (^IXIC): +72.10 (+0.52{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 13,994.70

  • Crude (CL=F): -$0.78 (-0.68{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $114.15 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$11.00 (+0.57{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,948.30 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): +6.4 bps to yield 2.3850{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

—

9:22 a.m. ET: New orders on US core capital goods fall in February

U.S.-made capital goods registered an unexpected drop February as shipments slowed, but demand for goods remained robust in a sign manufacturing is likely to continue expanding.

The Commerce Department reported new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely-watched measure for business expenditures, slipped 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} last month. The decline comes after core capital goods orders jumped 1.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in January.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipated core capital goods orders rising 0.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

Even as spending is shifting back to services, demand for goods remained strong, keeping manufacturing growing. However, the sector, which accounts for 11.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of the economy, continues to battle supply chain snafus.

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9:02 a.m. ET: LME nickel trading spikes to hit 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} Limit

Nickel jumped by the 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} exchange limit for a second straight day in London. The moves place bearish position holders in the spotlight just two weeks after the market was roiled by an historic short squeeze.

Futures contracts on the metal remained locked at the price limit on the London Metal Exchange early Thursday as the latest spike extends a period of volatility for the market.

In early March, prices soared over 250{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} across two trading sessions during the short squeeze centered on China’s Tsingshan Holding Group Co. before the market was suspended.

Meanwhile, hedge funds and other investors are weighing legal action against the London Metal Exchange over the recent debacle in the nickel market, according to a report by then Evening Standard.

A journalist poses while looking at a computer screen with the Bloomberg display showing a one-day view of the rise and fall in the value of the nickel, in London on March 8, 2022. - European equities attempted to rebound Tuesday from recent Ukraine-driven losses, while nickel prices rocketed to a record peak on Russian supply fears. The London Metal Exchange suspended trade in nickel after the base metal spiked to a record $101,365 per tonne as Russian supply concerns sparked sharp volatility. (Photo by Ben Stansall / AFP) (Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images)

A journalist poses while looking at a computer screen with the Bloomberg display showing a one-day view of the rise and fall in the value of the nickel, in London on March 8, 2022. – European equities attempted to rebound Tuesday from recent Ukraine-driven losses, while nickel prices rocketed to a record peak on Russian supply fears. The London Metal Exchange suspended trade in nickel after the base metal spiked to a record $101,365 per tonne as Russian supply concerns sparked sharp volatility. (Photo by Ben Stansall / AFP) (Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images)

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8:41 a.m. ET: New jobless claims fall to 187,000 in more than five-decade low

Applications for unemployment insurance fell sharply in the latest weekly data to set a more than 50-year low as the red-hot labor market showed no signs of cooling in the near-term.

The Labor Department latest weekly jobless claims report showed 187,000 claims were filed in the week ended March 19, coming in better than the 210,000 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected.

New jobless claims reached the lowest level since September 1969. Continuing claims also fell further to reach 1.35 million — the least since January 1970.

The labor market has remained a point of strength in the U.S. economy, with job openings still elevated but coming down from record levels as more workers rejoin the labor force from the sidelines.

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7:14 a.m. ET: US equity futures jump as investors seek to recover Wednesday’s losses

Here were the main moves in futures markets ahead of the open Thursday:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +21.15 points (+0.48{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,468.75

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +126.00 points (+0.37{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,376.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +76.50 points (+0.53{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,523.50

  • Crude (CL=F): -$0.30 (-0.26{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $114.63 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$7.30 (+0.38{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,944.60 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): 0.00 bps to yield 2.3210{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

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6:14 p.m. ET Wednesday: Stock futures open little changed as market seesaw continues

Here’s where the major stock index futures opened Wednesday evening:

  • S&P 500 futures (ES=F): +1.50 points (+0.03{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,449.00

  • Dow futures (YM=F): +3.00 points (+0.01{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,253.00

  • Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): +14.50 points (+0.10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,461.50

  • Crude (CL=F): -$0.54 (-0.47{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $114.39 a barrel

  • Gold (GC=F): +$7.20 (+0.37{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,944.50 per ounce

  • 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -5.2 bps to yield 2.3210{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, on March 9, 2022. U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday.The Dow rebounded 2.00 percent to 33,286.25, the S&P 500 rose 2.57 percent to 4,277.88, and the Nasdaq rallied 3.59 percent to 13,255.55. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange NYSE in New York, the United States, on March 9, 2022. U.S. stocks ended higher on Wednesday.The Dow rebounded 2.00 percent to 33,286.25, the S&P 500 rose 2.57 percent to 4,277.88, and the Nasdaq rallied 3.59 percent to 13,255.55. (Photo by Michael Nagle/Xinhua via Getty Images)

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Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

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