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February 5, 2023

Investors betting on a ‘soft landing’ for the economy doesn’t make it true

Friday, February 3, 2023

Today’s newsletter is by Jared Blikre, a reporter focused on the markets on Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @SPYJared. Read this and more market news on the go with the Yahoo Finance App.

Later this morning, Wall Street expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report that a robust 188,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in December — along with a small tick up in the unemployment rate to 3.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} — still well under the five-year average of 4.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

If the numbers print roughly as expected, this sanguine assessment of the American job market will likely only reinforce the big investor takeaway from this week’s Federal Reserve decision — that the U.S. will avoid recession as the Federal Reserve successfully navigates a “soft landing.”

This soft landing is the holy grail for the Powell Fed: An economy in which inflation comes back to the Fed’s 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} target and doesn’t tip into recession filled with a spike in job cuts and pain.

“Many forecasters would say [a soft landing is] not the most likely outcome … But I would say there’s a chance of it,” Powell said in a press conference on Wednesday.

Powell leaned into “disinflation” rhetoric, which investors absolutely loved. The Nasdaq spiked over 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, adding to a furious rally that followed the index’s best January return in two decades, where it rose 10.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

The strength in stocks since Wednesday bucks the trend over the last three Fed meetings, which saw stocks sold off sharply after the central bank’s policy announcement and throughout Powell’s Q&A.

But some investors have taken notice of the growing divergence between Fed rhetoric and economic reality.

“The window for the (misplaced) soft landing narrative is now extended,” tweeted Alfonso Peccatiello, founder and CEO of The Macro Compass.

Why misplaced? In Peccatiello’s view: “The first innings of a recession always look like a soft landing, as growth and inflation come down but not to alarming levels yet – exactly like [today’s environment].”

Here’s a Reuters article he points to from 2007 that could pass for something published yesterday — “U.S. economy on track for soft landing – Dallas Fed.”

Contrast the current post-Fed euphoria with Peccatiello’s tweet only a few days back: “In 4-5 months, I expect the US to be in a recession.”

Peccatiello laid out four macro indicators that point to a “bad” U.S. recession by the end of the second quarter this year. Specifically, these indicators are the global credit impulse, the Conference Board’s leading indicators index, the NAHB housing index, and the Philly Fed’s new orders index.

“Pricing in a soft landing doesn’t actually mean we are going to get a soft landing,” Peccatiello said.

The result is that investors have two epically diverging views of the economy — and it’s the stock bulls betting on the soft landing who are currently winning.

But according to Peccatiello, the bulls can get runover in two different scenarios — (1) if economic data comes in hot, forcing Powell to amp the hawkish talk once again, or (2) if economic data comes in “recessionary-like,” meaning very weak, which takes the soft landing off the table.

In other words, it will take Goldilocks data — not too good, but not too bad — until the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March to avoid the nasty conclusion that we’re heading for recession.

What to Watch Today

Economy

8:30 a.m. ET: Two-Month Payroll Net Revision, January (-28,000 prior)
8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, January (190,000 expected, 223,000 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Private Payrolls, January (190,000 expected, 220,000 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, January (6,000 expected, 8,000 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Unemployment Rate, January (3.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 3.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings, month-over-month, January (0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 0.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Average Hourly Earnings, year-over-year, January (4.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 4.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Average Weekly Hours All Employees, January (34.4 expected, 34.3 during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Labor Force Participation Rate, January (62.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} expected, 62.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during prior month)
8:30 a.m. ET: Underemployment Rate, January (6.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} prior month)
9:45 a.m. ET: S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, January Final (46.6 during prior month)
10:00 a.m. ET: S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, January Final (46.6 during prior month)
10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services Index, January (50.5 expected, 49.6 during prior month, revised to 49.2)

Earnings

Aon (AON), Cboe Global Markets (CBOE), Cigna (CI), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN)

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June 5, 2022

Elon Musk asks why ‘leaking’ DOJ won’t spill Epstein client list: ‘Doesn’t that seem odd?’

Look at out what is actually clicking on FoxBusiness.com.

Elon Musk took to Twitter Saturday to question if any person was bothered by how tranquil the “leaking” Justice Department is when it comes to the Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell.

Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, said the DOJ, which grew notoriety for leaking below previous President Donald Trump, was remarkably silent about the deceased convicted pedophile.

“Only factor more impressive than DOJ not leaking the listing is that no a single in the media cares,” Musk tweeted.

“Does not that look odd?” he asked his 96.5 million followers.

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In the tweet, Musk shared a graphic showing “Issues I’ll under no circumstances see in my daily life.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk (Reuters/Michele Tantussi/File Photograph / Reuters Pictures)

The image integrated a photograph of what seems to be a dragon or wyvern, a Tyrannosaurus Rex, a unicorn, and the phrases, “The Epstein/Maxwell client listing.”

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“In some cases I believe my checklist of enemies is way too quick, so,” Musk additional in a subsequent tweet.

Maxwell, Epstein’s previous assistant and lover, was convicted on December 29, 2021, of recruiting and grooming teenage women to be sexually abused by Epstein. A sentencing hearing is scheduled for June 28.

NEW YORK Town, NY – MARCH 15: Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell go to de Grisogono Sponsors The 2005 Wall Road Live performance Collection Benefitting Wall Avenue Rising, with a Effectiveness by Rod Stewart at Cipriani Wall Avenue on March 15, 2005 in New Yo (Image by Joe Schildhorn/Patrick McMullan via Getty Visuals / Getty Illustrations or photos)

While Maxwell disputed the impartiality of a juror who unsuccessful to disclose he was a target of sexual abuse, a federal choose denied her a retrial.

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Epstein died right after an alleged suicide in Manhattan — however the formal tale is commonly disputed — in 2019 although awaiting a federal sexual intercourse trafficking demo.

CEO of Tesla Motors Elon Musk speaks at the Tesla Giga Texas producing “Cyber Rodeo” grand opening bash in Austin, Texas, on April 7, 2022. (SUZANNE CORDEIRO/AFP by way of Getty Photos / Getty Photos)

On Friday, Musk stated Sexual intercourse Pistols, Pokemon, and Disney Chemtrails in a bizarre series of tweets.

Final thirty day period, Musk also garnered remarkable focus on social media when he proposed that he may die “beneath mysterious situation.”

April 15, 2022

Elon Musk’s Twitter bid is high. That doesn’t mean the company must accept it, experts say.

On Thursday, billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced he experienced designed an offer to purchase Twitter for $43 billion.

Musk created his shift not lengthy just after Twitter announced it experienced failed to attain an agreement with him about becoming a member of its board. That, in convert, arrived about after Musk disclosed that he experienced ordered much more than 9 {21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of Twitter, making him its premier unique shareholder.

Musk has not been shy about his motives for wanting to invest in Twitter. He said he believes it have to be significantly less restrictive about moderating speech.

But his willingness to make the deal is now getting met with concerns about his potential to in fact total it — and Twitter’s willingness to acknowledge it.

How would Musk finance the offer?

The very first question is no matter whether Musk is in a position to stick to by with the deal at all.

Proper now, in accordance to Bloomberg, Musk has about $3 billion in quickly available funds. So he would have to finance the rest of the offer some other way, irrespective of whether that is marketing shares of Tesla or borrowing funds.

Musk owns about 173 million Tesla shares. Even so, securities filings show that 88 million of them are getting made use of to back again personalized financial loans. Nevertheless, he has the solution to buy 60 million much more shares, the filings show.

In a stay interview Thursday in Vancouver for the TED2022 convention, Musk explained “I have adequate belongings” when he was requested irrespective of whether funding had been secured for the prospective invest in.

In 2018, in his potential as CEO of Tesla, Musk claimed he was thinking of having the electrical car or truck corporation private and that he experienced secured funding — a claim for which the U.S. Securities and Trade Commission penalized Musk and Tesla right after an investigation.

If Musk ended up to use Tesla shares, Twitter could continue to reject his offer you on the grounds that the financing he experienced secured was not trustworthy, reported Kevin Kaiser, an adjunct total professor of finance who is the senior director of the Harris Family Choice Investments Software at the Wharton University of the University of Pennsylvania.

Twitter “would have to make a judgment of the currency of what was staying available if it is not income,” Kaiser claimed.

Could Twitter’s board reject the bid?

Twitter’s board does not have a fiduciary duty to acknowledge Musk’s bid, irrespective of the generous give, if it deems it not to be in the company’s finest pursuits, Kaiser stated.

Thanks to the so-referred to as small business judgment rule, a U.S. firm’s board of directors has huge latitude to determine how it evaluates its top fiduciary responsibility, he reported.

So even nevertheless some shareholders would be probable to sue Twitter must the board reject Musk’s give, the fits almost certainly would not get considerably, Kaiser claimed.

“In this scenario, there isn’t another bidder,” Kaiser reported, “so the board has to talk about is it in very best fascination of the enterprise to be privately owned — and privately owned by Musk. Which is a truly tricky investigation, but it is incredibly achievable that they can use the business enterprise judgment rule to say it is not in their desire if it goes non-public, and non-public by Musk.”

Reps for Twitter referred requests for remark to its assertion Thursday morning declaring it was examining Musk’s bid.

Kaiser said he would be “horrified” if the federal government experimented with to intervene in the transaction given that a non-public investor was trying to get to make a bid for a publicly traded business. At the very same time, Twitter is a distinctive firm in that numerous men and women deem it “societally essential” — including Musk himself — Kaiser claimed.

Representatives for the Justice Division did not immediately answer to emailed requests for comment.

In a securities filing Thursday, Musk claimed the proposal was his “very best and remaining present” when reiterating his disagreement with Twitter’s leadership around the firm’s course.

“It is a higher price tag and your shareholders will really like it,” Musk mentioned in the submitting. “If the deal doesn’t perform, specified that I don’t have self-assurance in administration nor do I consider I can generate the needed adjust in the general public market place, I would want to rethink my posture as a shareholder.”

At least a single big shareholder has by now declared his opposition. In a tweet Thursday, Saudi Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, who in accordance to Bloomberg owns 4.4 p.c of Twitter, said he did not believe Musk’s present “arrived shut to the intrinsic value” of the firm.

Twitter shares ended Thursday investing down 1.7 per cent to close at $45.08.

What could it imply for misinformation and harassment on Twitter?

As Musk has significantly ramped up his involvement with Twitter in the last week, observers, and reportedly Twitter workforce, have questioned regardless of whether he might radically alter how the system is moderated.

In modern several years, Twitter has taken a extra aggressive approach with its regulations about harassment, misinformation and other written content it has deemed unfit for the platform. Twitter banned President Donald Trump even though he was even now in workplace right after it claimed he encouraged the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol. Various functions have criticized the moderation efforts, which includes Musk, who has named himself a “totally free-speech absolutist.”

On March 26, 12 times soon after he bought his Twitter shares, Musk tweeted: “Given that Twitter serves as the de facto public town sq., failing to adhere to cost-free-speech ideas fundamentally undermines democracy. What really should be done?” In later on tweets, he advised that he was interested in getting palms-on in shaping the direction of the corporation and the attributes on the platform.

Requested why he needs to purchase Twitter at the TED function, Musk replied, “I feel it is incredibly critical for there to be an inclusive arena for free speech.”

Musk made numerous recommendations in the TED interview about how he would alter Twitter, indicating he would like to make its algorithms obtainable to the general public so men and women can see how certain articles is getting taken care of.

He also repeatedly prompt that he believed most speech that falls in just the constraints of the law really should be allowed on the system.

“If in doubt, enable the speech, enable it exist. If it is a, you know, a grey area, I would say enable the tweet exist,” he stated. “It really is just definitely critical that men and women have the each the fact and the perception that they’re capable to converse freely inside the bounds of the regulation.”

Twitter critics have expressed enjoyment about the possibility that the system could come to be much less limited. Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., tweeted April 4: “Now that @ElonMusk is Twitter’s most significant shareholder, it is time to raise the political censorship. Oh… and Deliver Back again TRUMP!”

Social media analyst, Matt Navarra, who has worked with Google, the BBC and the United Nations, said it could possibly be too early to speculate about the facts of what variations Musk would convey, but he explained unrestricted cost-free speech with out moderation on social media would be an unattractive prospect to numerous.

Referring to the platform Trump started previous year, Navarra mentioned: “We know from examples like Real truth Social that creating a platform that is geared all-around ‘free speech’ and peaceful or no form of moderation is not an interesting proposition to most persons, and neither are they too intriguing or good possibilities for advertisers.

“No one particular would like to invest hours in an application of folks just remaining vile and controversial and argumentative and polarizing. That is not pleasant, and advertisers unquestionably won’t adhere all around for that for really very long.”

January 13, 2022

Fauci says it’s ‘stunning’ that senator doesn’t know his financial records are public after calling Republican a moron

White House chief health care adviser Anthony FauciAnthony FauciOvernight Overall health Care — CDC is not going to improve mask recommendation The Memo: Biden’s overpromising trouble The Hill’s 12:30 Report: 2021 finishes with 40-yr inflation higher A lot more explained it was “stunning” a senator was unaware that Fauci’s economic documents are public following calling the Republican a moron.

Fauci and Sen. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallFauci states it truly is ‘stunning’ that senator will not know his fiscal data are public soon after contacting Republican a moron The Hill’s Early morning Report – Biden champions filibuster reform, but does not have the votes Sizzling mic catches Fauci contacting GOP senator ‘a moron’ Much more (R-Kan.) had a tense exchange at a Senate listening to Tuesday, when Marshall questioned if Fauci had disclosed all of his private finances to Congress.

“I never recognize why you might be asking me that query,” Fauci explained to the senator. “My fiscal disclosure is community expertise and has been so for the previous 37 yrs or so.”

“The Significant Tech giants are undertaking an outstanding work of trying to keep it from being public,” Marshall responded. “We will keep on to seem for it. Where would we uncover it?”

“All you have to do is question for it,” Fauci stated. “You happen to be so misinformed, it truly is remarkable.”

Right after the exchange, Fauci was caught in a scorching mic instant muttering “what a moron” and “Jesus Christ.”

In an job interview later Tuesday on MSNBC’s “All In with Chris Hayes,” Fauci remarked that he assumed it was “stunning” the senator did not know his fiscal documents ended up public.

“He was implying, if you pay attention to the total dialogue, that in my place, liable for drug trials and possessing so-identified as inside information of what drug works and what drug won’t get the job done, that possibly I was building investments form of like ahead of the recreation below. … It was gorgeous to me that a United States senator doesn’t know that my money assertion is community understanding. It was just like, where have you been?” Fauci claimed.

Marshall strike again at Fauci Tuesday immediately after the scorching mic second turned viral on social media, indicating the comment may possibly have “alleviated the worry of the least trustworthy bureaucrat in The united states.”

“I understand that Anthony Fauci had a pretty frustrating working day: getting a bombshell report exhibit he in actuality did award U.S. tax bucks for get-of-function investigate at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and currently being identified as out about his particular fiscal disclosure during the COVID pandemic NOT currently being publicly readily available should be very disheartening,” Marshall stated. “Contacting me a moron for the duration of a Senate hearing may perhaps have alleviated the pressure of the least trustworthy bureaucrat in The usa, but it did not acquire absent from the points.”