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After turbulent 2022 for economy, local financial analysts break down what’s in store for new year

After turbulent 2022 for economy, local financial analysts break down what’s in store for new year

Retailers remain giddy from consumer holiday spending, and 9-to-5ers using the last of their vacation days still may not be ready to look toward the next 12 months.

But with each new year comes economic uncertainty, particularly after a 2022 that saw uncompromising inflation and steadily rising interest rates.

To that end, the Tulsa World recently asked a pair of local financial experts to weigh in on what 2023 has in store for people trying to make ends meet.

Here are takes on a number of issues from Brian Henderson, chief investment officer for BOK Financial, and Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management.

In an effort to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve in December raised interest rates for the seventh time in 2022, placing the current fed rate in the range of 4.25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}-4.50{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, the highest level in 15 years. Are these hikes making a difference?

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DOLLARHIDE: “As painful as higher interest rates are, prolonged inflation is even more painful. It’s kind of like like ripping the Band-Aid off. That’s what the Fed has done this year is rip the Band-Aid off.

“But gas prices peaked in May. Grocery prices seem to be stabilizing. So it is working. What’s spooking the market is the inability to know what the high-water mark is for the Fed. Is it 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} or is it higher?”

HENDERSON: “We are heading in the right direction with re-balancing supply and demand in the economy. Yes, the rate hikes are working but we still haven’t yet felt the full brunt of what the Fed has had to do. Monetary policy operates with some level of a lag.

“In the first quarter, we are going to get a much better sense of the shape of the U.S. economy and what condition it’s in. … I’m expecting another good December as far as growth in the overall economy. Once we get after the first of the year, I’m expecting inflation rates to continue to trend down some.”

Is Oklahoma — and particularly Tulsa — better positioned than other sections of the country to handle this economic rollercoaster?

DOLLARHIDE: “People ask, ‘are we in a recession?’ The answer is probably ‘yes.’ But I don’t think this is an accurate way to view things. Look at oil and gas. When oil went negative $32 a barrel in the fall of 2020, energy was in a recession and tech was in a boom. Now … energy is in a boom and technology is in a recession. There are parts of every city in every state that are doing well and some that are not doing well.

“That’s the way I look at it. Oklahoma is very heavy energy, very heavy health care, very heavy education. These are things that are going to keep on churning during a recession.”

The annual inflation rate for the United States is 7.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, down from a high of 9.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in June. Although inflation seems to be slowing, it remains far above the Fed’s 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} target. How much can we expect it to drop?

HENDERSON: “Two percent is achievable. I hope it’s not necessary for us to have a severe recession to get there. But it certainly is going to require higher unemployment rates and slower economic growth. It’s our forecast that we are going to have less than 1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} economic growth here this year in 2023.”

DOLLARHIDE: “Even the Fed can’t hide the fact that the long-term inflation rate the last 100 years is 3.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. So, I would say the Fed’s real target is 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} at this point. If we get down to 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, I think we will be fine. I think we can be at 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} by summer.”

Workplace retirement plans have taken a substantial hit in this economy. How should we frame this in the long term?

HENDERSON: “In 2022, both stock and bond markets weren’t prepared for the rise in inflation and the subsequent increase in interest rates. That’s why both bond and stock prices that negatively impact 401(k) plans this year were hurt so bad.

“It does make sense to move small percentages one way or the other. If you typically have 70{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in equities and 30{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in bonds, lean more heavily on bonds because they do give you a better level of protection and if we do go into a recession, they are going to perform better than stock.”

What can we look forward to locally in the marketplace in 2023?

DOLLARHIDE: “2020 was a nightmare. No one had a 102-year playbook on a pandemic. 2021 was an amazing year. As for 2022, we have playbooks on inflation. We have playbooks on war. We have playbooks on interest rates. We have playbooks now on COVID and lockdowns and supply-chain restraints. But unfortunately, it wasn’t just interest rates. It was a five-headed monster.

“I think we’re destined for a much better year. Whatever the Fed needs to do, I would say they are 85{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 95{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} done.”

HENDERSON: “Because companies allow the more flexible working arrangements, working from home, we are attracting people from both coasts who are selling their expensive homes, looking for more Tulsa lifestyle and culture. Tulsa is wonderful place to raise a family certainly, and it’s affordable.

“The future is bright for Tulsa.”

Stories by Curtis Killman, Michael Dekker and Randy Krehbiel.



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Will something break? What’s next for global financial markets after U.K. meltdown.

Will something break? What’s next for global financial markets after U.K. meltdown.

Worldwide fiscal market stresses are piling up, but the commotion that pressured the Financial institution of England to make an incredible intervention in the U.K. bond market place Wednesday is not very likely to be a sport-changer for U.S. stock-market buyers on the lookout for a current market breakdown.

A functioning notion between traders and traders has been that the Federal Reserve will keep on to aggressively elevate interest prices “until a thing breaks,” forcing policy makers to simplicity up and probably enabling a battered inventory marketplace to put in a bottom.

Even though a chaotic day in U.K. markets adds to a listing of world-wide money problems, it isn’t likely to give Fed coverage makers explanation to gradual down, significantly less pause, traders and analysts stated.

“I do not consider you can examine into the Bank of England steps in the gilt market place and draw conclusions about the Federal Reserve and the U.S. bond market place,” mentioned Michael Antonelli, sector strategist at Baird, in a mobile phone job interview.

‘Whatever scale is necessary’

In a breathtaking reversal, the Bank of England on Wednesday declared it would purchase U.K. government bonds, or gilts, with lengthy maturities at “whatever scale is necessary” to arrest a surge in yields that adopted the U.K. government’s announcement very last 7 days of a deficit-boosting raft of tax cuts and electricity assist.

Go through: Below are two causes the Bank of England experienced to phase in and buy bonds

The BOE had been organizing to promote bonds it had accrued on its stability sheet as portion of its quantitative easing system. Soaring bond yields had been accompanied by a sharp selloff in the British pound
GBPUSD,
+.40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996},
which on Monday traded at an all-time lower as opposed to the U.S. dollar. The moves had been alarming, as climbing yields typically guidance made sector currencies, stirring fears of a money disaster that could have collateral hurt on global marketplaces and the economic system.

Essential Phrases: U.K. could set off a international crisis as pound collapses although bond yields soar, Larry Summers says

The BOE’s about-facial area, in the meantime, intended the central financial institution had to successfully loosen monetary policy, placing its accountability for preserving financial stability at odds with its inflation-fighting mandate.

Bounce again

The moves translated into a pullback for U.S. Treasury yields, which have soared in recent months, when the fees sector confirmed traders scaled back expectations relatively all-around how aggressive the Fed will be in boosting costs. Yields and financial debt prices move opposite each other. Treasury yields pulled again sharply Wednesday, in a move analysts attributed to traders taking revenue on brief bets.

A run-up in quick-time period costs in anticipation of intense Fed tightening have contributed to a selloff in equities. Bigger yields make Treasurys more desirable to buyers relative to equities and other assets perceived as risky.

See: Why 2-year Treasury yields are ‘the foundation problem’ for the having difficulties inventory current market

U.S. stocks bounced sharply as yields fell Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Ordinary
DJIA,
-1.71{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
shut with a acquire of practically 550 factors, or 1.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, while the S&P 500
SPX,
-1.51{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
rose 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The Dow and S&P 500 ended Tuesday at their cheapest considering the fact that November 2020 as they extended a shedding streak to six straight classes.

Treasury yields have been back again on the rise Thursday, whilst inventory-index futures pointed lower.

Hidden vulnerabilities

Anticipations that some thing will split are rooted in economical history. Previous amount-hike cycles have frequently led to stresses in the fiscal method, giving way to crisis.

“Usually in tightening cycles some thing blows up,” Christopher Good, main world-wide strategist at Barings and head of the Barings Expense Institute, explained to MarketWatch.

“Sometimes it is Orange County and in some cases its Mexico and from time to time its Lehman Brothers. It’s tough to know what could possibly be most vulnerable,” he said.

Getting rid of investments forced Orange County, California, into bankruptcy in 1994, jolting the bond sector, the exact same 12 months aggressive curiosity rate raises by the Fed contributed to Mexico’s peso crisis. The 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers pushed the global financial process to the brink of collapse.

Also browse: Initially matter Fed breaks with increased prices will be the economic marketplaces, BMO says

So considerably, no important snags have emerged.

“Are we waiting for that ‘something that no one knows what it is’ to crack, or are we already there? What has broken previously?” explained Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments in Atlanta, in a phone job interview.

Parts of the fairness marketplace, these kinds of as progress shares, by now search “broken,” he claimed, noting the shares of some former highfliers slipping 60{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} or much more from their 52-week highs.

“But has the program damaged? Has liquidity seized up to the stage where it snowballs? No, we haven’t witnessed that,” Martin said. “But are we seeing liquidity struggles, of course.”

Greenback wrecking ball

A surging U.S. dollar remains a key source of be concerned. The pound’s plunge previously this 7 days contributed to a even more increase by the carefully adopted ICE U.S. Greenback Index
DXY,
-.07{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996},
a evaluate of the forex against a basket of 6 big rivals, to a 20-yr significant.

The scope and speed of the dollar’s rally has stirred fears of market place dislocations and stresses in emerging and developing economies that have a significant proportion of greenback-denominated credit card debt. The dollar’s gains are also viewed as a destructive for U.S. massive-cap multinationals who rely on global profits.

Also see: Why an epic U.S. greenback rally could be a ‘wrecking ball’ for fiscal markets

The forex marketplace, in the meantime, is probable to continue being an important “tell” for equities, reported Jeff Kleintop, chief worldwide investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

“Stocks completed the spherical-trip voyage back to their June lows final week and European shares entered a bear market place. As equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August this calendar year, the forex industry was skeptical as greenback strength continued,” Kleintop explained to MarketWatch in an e-mail.

“It’s challenging to think about a long lasting rebound in international equities without having the greenback at least stabilizing,” he stated. “That may well consider a weakening labor sector to carry down the rental fees that are driving inflation.”

Verify out: A surging U.S. greenback is producing an ‘untenable situation’ for the stock industry, warns Morgan Stanley’s Wilson

Baird’s Antonelli argued that the U.S. housing current market was the most very likely prospect for the kind of breakdown that could finally give the Fed pause. A increase in mortgage charges above 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} is rattling the housing marketplace, a even further increase that sees charges topping 8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} or 9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} could make economic ructions that plan makers would obtain tough to overlook, he claimed.

“That would pop on their radar in a extremely bright way if they started out to hear from regional Fed surveys that the housing sector is at a complete standstill,” he claimed, presented the sector’s critical role in the U.S. economy.