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Wall Street’s main benchmarks rose sharply in pre-market trading Tuesday after the Russian Defense Ministry said some military units will start returning to their permanent bases after completing drills near the Ukrainian border.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 jumped 1.47{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, or 69 points, to 4,463.00, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 1.16{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, or 401 points to 34,872.00. Contracts on the Nasdaq Composite steeply advanced 2.23{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, or 317.50 points, to 14,570.50 after the escalating threat of Russian military action against Ukraine had weighed on markets in recent days as investors already grapple with the prospect of swifter monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, oil retreated from its highest price since 2014, falling 3.76{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to $91.87 per barrel.
Fears that the Kremlin will green light a move to force in on Ukraine as soon as this week have created a new headwind for global markets worried the conflict could exacerbate inflation and spur other economic disruptions. The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday the U.S. was closing its embassy in Kyiv and destroying networking and computer equipment as a Russian military attack becomes increasingly imminent.
“The escalation of Russia and Ukraine tensions come at a time when the stock market is already vulnerable given inflation worries and the potential for Federal Reserve tightening,” Sanders Morris Harris Chairman George Ball said in a note. “If an armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is somehow avoided, a short-lived relief rally is likely, but there are still too many worries on the horizon for any type of longer lasting upward move higher in stocks.”
The geopolitical tensions add to the uncertainty around central bank policy that has dominated market sentiment in recent months. Last week, the Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) notched a steeper-than-expected 7.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} increase over the year ended January to mark the largest annual jump since 1982.
The surge heightened calls for the Federal Reserve to intervene more aggressively than anticipated to rein in soaring price levels, even raising the possibility of an emergency hike before the bank’s next policy meeting in March.
“You have everything laid out perfectly for the market to go lower,” he said, pointing to higher interest rates, slow earnings, and slow economic growth around the globe. “There’s no good reason to see this market go higher.”
Comerica Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer John Lynch pointed out in a note that despite recent volatility in interest rates and equities, areas of the fixed-income markets have exhibited less turbulence. With corporate credit stress limited for investment grade and high-yield bonds, 10-year breakeven inflation expectations remain contained.
“We believe it is important for investors to focus on market signals, rather than headlines, while also respecting traditional patterns for prices, interest rates, and equity valuations,” Lynch said.
Although earnings season is slowly winding down, investors will tune in this week for another docket of corporate results to weigh against monetary and geopolitical conditions.
Investors can expect reports from companies including Walmart (WMT), Marriott International (MAR), ViacomCBS (VIAC), and Airbnb (ABNB) on Tuesday. On the economic front, a fresh read on the Producer Price Index for January and retail sales are due out before open to serve as another inflation snapshot for markets.
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7:00 a.m. ET: Contracts on S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq surge after Russia pulls back troops
Here were the main moves on Wall Street in pre-market trading Tuesday:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): +66.50 (+1.51{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,460.50
Dow (^DJI): +399.00 (+1.16{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,870.00
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +296.75 (+2.08{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,549.75
Crude (CL=F): -$3.37 (-3.53{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $92.09 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): -$17.00 (-0.91{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,852.40 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +4.1 bps to yield 1.9960{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
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6:02 p.m. ET Wednesday: Futures open flat after Russia-Ukraine tensions weigh on earlier session
Here were the main moves in markets ahead of overnight trading Wednesday:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): +3.25 (+0.07{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,397.25
Dow (^DJI): +6.00 (+0.02{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,477.00
Nasdaq (^IXIC): +16.75 (+0.12{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,269.75
Crude (CL=F): -$0.74 (-0.78{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $94.72 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$3.80 (+0.20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,873.20 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +4.1 bps to yield 1.9960{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
A general view shows a Wall Street sign outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, New York on January 24, 2022. (Photo by Ed JONES / AFP) (Photo by ED JONES/AFP via Getty Images)
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Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc
Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance
“Shark Tank” is a strike small business actuality sequence that has been on Television considering that 2009. On the show, budding entrepreneurs get the opportunity to make business presentations to a panel of 5 traders or “sharks,” who make a decision regardless of whether or not to make investments in their products and solutions or organization and turn their dreams into reality.
Just one working day one or additional of individuals business owners might occur from Henderson Middle University, the place STEM Lab trainer Dr. Kay Williams has her learners discovering this quarter about fiscal management as a result of “Making Funds Make ‘Cents’: Shark Tank Junior.”
Pupils discover about fashionable day innovators and inventors, along with what they have developed and then Williams encourages them to function both individually or in little groups to produce their have solutions and organization. Prior to starting their initiatives, they exploration an innovator or inventor of their picking and use their exploration to inspire and guidebook them although making their possess innovation or invention.
“The pupils have to build a organization from the floor up,” mentioned Williams. “Some students produced authentic goods, some learners created faux products, but it is a business enterprise and the young ones go and pitch their concepts to our Sharks for feasible expenditure in their business.
“They experienced to genuinely have a very good organization strategy, have to do business enterprise cards, flyers, brochures, websites to market their goods. They have to be capable to clarify their plan, to whom they are likely to marketplace it, how significantly it is going to expense to make, how a lot they approach on advertising it for, what their financial gain is going to be, how considerably cash they are in search of from the Sharks and what share of their organization they are eager to give the Sharks for their investment decision. And the students can negotiate with the Sharks if they so desire.”
The Sharks are fellow HMS instructors, together with Jackson Mayor Carlos Duffey and Ameris Lender Branch Supervisor Melissa Harris. They have up to 100 Paw Pounds they can give learners as an investment in their business. Paw Kilos are Henderson Center University dollars that learners can make to invest in factors at school. HMS Principal Dr. Suzan Hyatt authorised up to 100 Paw Lbs to be given to the pupils for their product investments.
Spherical 1 of Shark Tank Junior was held on Feb. 4. Among the university student solutions presented to the Sharks were Kas Kups, Crypto Craz, Peace Affirmation Pillows, Miracle’s Affirmation Bracelets, H2o Lamp, Shoe Washing Equipment, Hydro Hoodies, Great Wreaths, Joyous Bottles, Bellz Scrunchies, and Nexus Outfitters.

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After Spherical 1 was accomplished, Williams appeared at all of the ranking playing cards completed by the Sharks on the pupils. Then she achieved with the business people and went above the scores. The pupils who did not acquire investments have a possibility to make variations and arrive back again right before the Sharks again in Spherical 2 on March 4.
Williams explained not all of her learners made it to the Shark Tank, but they are all doing work on their companies and discovering about monetary administration.
“Through the future 4 weeks we’ll be speaking about the college students that did get their corporations authorized and we’ll be placing in phony numbers to give them a prospect to determine out what they have to give to the sharks and what they will be equipped to preserve,” she stated. “So we’ll plug in figures so they’ll have that knowledge and have an thought about what that seems like. I do expose them to other entrepreneurs and we do have that monetary management dialogue.”
Williams is leaving the university method on March 11, getting taken a middle college principal position in the Atlanta region. But she said she hopes this course can create into a little something for the full relatives.
“I talked to our Title 1 Coordinator about undertaking a parent workshop on economic management,” she said. “I want the mothers and fathers to know how to spend, attain a mortgage, in particular with the new local community advancement coming up throughout from the school, and if needed, even how to stability a checkbook.”
Williams is also hoping her learners will continue with their goods and businesses.
“There is a tentative exercise identified as Industry Working day awaiting approval from Dr. Hyatt, for mom and dad planned in Might,” explained Williams. “The children that did genuine items can build them for the up coming a few or four months and sell them at Current market Working day for genuine income. I have 8 or nine youngsters that genuinely want to encourage their initiatives and have dad and mom come in and obtain their genuine merchandise.”
The Super Bowl is 1 of the biggest evenings in the sporting calendar. Click on for extra.
Donald J. Trump’s longtime accounting company reduce ties with him and his household business enterprise final 7 days, saying it could no for a longer time stand powering a 10 years of once-a-year financial statements it well prepared for the Trump Firm, court documents exhibit.
The choice, which was disclosed to the company in a Feb. 9 letter from the accounting company, arrives amid felony and civil investigations into irrespective of whether Mr. Trump illegally inflated the benefit of his belongings. The organization, Mazars United states of america, compiled the financial statements based on information and facts the previous president and his corporation offered.
The letter instructed the Trump Business to primarily retract the files, recognized as statements of financial issue, from 2011 to 2020. In the letter, Mazars famous that the business experienced not “as a whole” uncovered substance discrepancies in between the information and facts the Trump Organization supplied and the real price of Mr. Trump’s assets. But given what it known as “the totality of circumstances” — like Mazars’ own investigation — the letter directed the Trump Organization to notify anybody who received the statements that they need to no for a longer time depend on them.
The statements, which Mr. Trump applied to protected loans, are at the center of the two legislation enforcement investigations into no matter if Mr. Trump exaggerated the price of his homes to defraud his loan companies into offering him the very best attainable bank loan terms.
Mazars’ acknowledgment that the statements had been essentially flawed was a possible blow to the Trump Corporation as it tries to fend off the lengthy-running scrutiny of its finances. And for Mr. Trump, whose personal finances are intertwined with those of his family company and who has extensive faced concerns about his taxes, Mazars is the most up-to-date in a extensive line of providers to split with him about the previous calendar year, adhering to in the route of several financial institutions, insurers and legal professionals.
The disclosures about Mazars’ work for Mr. Trump appeared in new courtroom files filed by the New York lawyer normal, Letitia James, who is searching for to problem the previous president and two of his adult youngsters less than oath as part of her civil investigation.
Mr. Trump’s lawyers had questioned a judge to prohibit the questioning, and in reaction, Ms. James’s office argued in court docket papers past month that the firm experienced engaged in “fraudulent or misleading” tactics.
Her submitting on Monday — which marked her hottest attempt to press in advance with questioning Mr. Trump as very well as Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump — bundled a duplicate of the Mazars letter, signed by the accounting firm’s normal counsel.
The Manhattan district attorney’s business office has been conducting a different prison investigation, with the aid of attorneys from Ms. James’s place of work.
In a assertion, the Trump Corporation mentioned that while it was let down with Mazars’ determination, it seen the letter as confirmation that the firm’s “work was done in accordance with all applicable accounting benchmarks and ideas and that these statements of economical problem do not comprise any content discrepancies.”
The firm argued that Mazars’ characterization of its perform “effectively renders the investigations by the D.A. and A.G. moot.”
Mazars initial moved to split with the Trump Business final spring, and wound down its get the job done throughout a transition to a new accounting organization, according to men and women with know-how of the connection. But the letter withdrawing the statements represented a sharper crack, and its disclosure in the court docket filing was the very first time the end of the business enterprise marriage has been designed community.
In a assertion, the accounting business stated that “under our specifications of skilled ethics, we are unable to comment on any consumer expert services or associations.”
The firm’s transient letter could bolster Ms. James’s investigation, which has focused partly on the statements and whether or not they overvalued Mr. Trump’s numerous inns, golf golf equipment and other properties.
Mazars reported it concluded that the statements were no for a longer time responsible based mostly in section on the lawyer general’s before filings, its possess investigations and information and facts the accountants acquired from “internal and external sources.” The letter included that Mazars “performed its work in accordance with specialist criteria.”
Because Ms. James’s investigation is civil, she are unable to file legal fees. But she could sue Mr. Trump and his corporation to look for financial penalties, and could try out to shut down particular areas of Mr. Trump’s company in New York.
“As the most new filings demonstrate, the proof carries on to mount showing that Donald J. Trump and the Trump Group used fraudulent and deceptive economic statements to get hold of financial advantage,” Ms. James mentioned in a assertion. “There really should be no question that this is a lawful investigation and that we have reputable explanation to search for testimony from Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump Jr., and Ivanka Trump.”
It is unclear no matter if Mazars’ split with the Trumps will have any bearing on the district attorney’s prison investigation into Mr. Trump. The company has been cooperating with that investigation, and Mr. Trump’s most important accountant at Mazars has already testified in advance of a grand jury listening to evidence about Mr. Trump.
Have an understanding of the New York A.G.’s Trump Inquiry
Card 1 of 6
An empire under scrutiny. The New York State attorney normal is presently conducting a civil investigation into previous president Donald Trump’s small business tactics. Here’s what to know:
The origins of the inquiry. The investigation began right after Michael D. Cohen, Mr. Trump’s former particular lawyer and fixer, testified to Congress that Mr. Trump and his personnel had manipulated his internet worthy of to accommodate his passions.
The possible influence. For the reason that the investigation is civil, the lawyer general cannot file felony charges and would have to sue Mr. Trump. Ms. James could seek financial penalties and consider to shut down specific areas of Mr. Trump’s small business.
Mr. Trump’s reaction. Mr. Trump has submitted a lawsuit towards Letitia James, the New York attorney standard, seeking to halt the inquiry. The match argues that the lawyer general’s involvement in the inquiry was politically motivated.
The business office of the district attorney, Alvin Bragg, declined to remark.
The two investigations still facial area obstructions. Whilst the statements might comprise exaggerated estimates of Mr. Trump’s assets values, people similar paperwork also include things like a quantity of disclaimers, together with acknowledgments that Mr. Trump’s accountants experienced neither audited nor authenticated his promises.
One more disclaimer notes that Mazars did “not categorical an opinion or deliver any assurance about” the statements, a popular caveat in statements of money ailment. The business also disclosed that, when compiling the data for Mr. Trump, it had “become mindful of departures from accounting ideas frequently accepted in the United States of The united states.”
Mr. Trump’s attorneys would probably argue that his lenders, complex economical institutions like Deutsche Lender, would not have relied on the statements when supplying him financial loans.
Even now, in her court docket filing previous thirty day period, Ms. James highlighted prospective deceptive statements about the value of at the very least six Trump attributes, including golfing golf equipment in Westchester County, N.Y., and Scotland, as perfectly as Mr. Trump’s own penthouse dwelling in Trump Tower.
According to that filing, Mr. Trump claimed that the triplex apartment spanned 30,000 sq. ft, providing it an eye-popping value of $327 million. In truth of the matter, the apartment was 10,996 square feet.
Mr. Trump’s extended-serving main economical officer, Allen H. Weisselberg, later acknowledged to investigators that the enterprise had overvalued the apartment by “give or take” $200 million.
Independently, Mr. Weisselberg and the Trump Group had been indicted past summer time and accused of orchestrating a 15-calendar year plan to supply particular executives with off-the-textbooks luxurious benefits like no cost automobiles and flats. Mr. Weisselberg and the corporation have pleaded not responsible and the situation is tentatively scheduled to go to trial late this summer months.
Both equally the civil and legal investigations have examined the fundamental details the Trump Business furnished Mazars as the accountants compiled the once-a-year money statements.
Typically, Mr. Trump’s organization would estimate the price of its homes primarily based on latest marketing charges of equivalent structures, a prevalent true estate valuation system. The authorities have zeroed in on no matter if the corporation cherry-picked favorable details to essentially mislead Mazars into presenting an overly rosy photo of Mr. Trump’s funds.
Ms. James has argued that the Trump Firm misstated the benefit of the attributes to lenders, insurers and the Inside Income Assistance. Lots of of the statements, she argued in the submitting past thirty day period, were “generally inflated as element of a pattern to propose that Mr. Trump’s internet worth was increased than it usually would have appeared.”
Stocks sank Monday afternoon as investors eyed the escalating threat of Russian invasion in Ukraine alongside ongoing concerns over inflation and an aggressive move toward policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
The S&P 500 dropped to extend losses after last week’s roller-coaster sessions on Thursday and Friday. Treasury yields rose and the 10-year yield hovered back near 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The latest leg lower came after the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. was closing its embassy in Kyiv and destroying networking and computer equipment, with concerns over a Russian military attack mounting.
Markets have been whipsawed in recent sessions by conflicting signals over the immediacy of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Earlier, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he was urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to continue diplomatic talks. This came less than a day after U.S. officials signaled Russia could be nearing the launch of an invasion of Ukraine as soon as this week. National Security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN on Sunday that “a major military action could begin by Russia in Ukraine any day now,” though the U.S. was still hoping for a diplomatic resolution. And these remarks in turn came after President Joe Biden held a phone call with Vladimir Putin on Saturday warning that the U.S. and its allies would “impose swift and severe costs” on Russia in the event of a military attack in Ukraine.
Oil prices rose to build on gains after a recent run-up as Russia-Ukraine tensions remained in focus. West Texas intermediate crude oil futures (CL=F) jumped above $95 per barrel for the first time since 2014. U.S. crude prices have already jumped more than 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the year-to-date. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international standard, drifted above $95 per barrel. With oil prices elevated, the S&P 500 energy sector has far outperformed the other major S&P 500 sectors for the year-to-date, climbing more than 26{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} versus the broader market’s 7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} drop.
Further upside in energy prices in response to the Russia and Ukraine conflict would depend on the timing of any attack and the contours of any U.S. response toward Russia, one of the world’s key oil exporters, some analysts noted.
“It all comes down to how much of their supply is actually impacted by an invasion, and that’s not entirely clear. There are estimates that are saying crude could go to $120 a barrel if we get an invasion,” Rebecca Babin, CIBC Private Wealth U.S. senior energy trader, told Yahoo Finance Live about Brent crude prices. “I say we top out at probably just around $100 because I do think that there will not be as strict of sanctions as the market fears because ultimately, that hurts the US and our allies almost as much as it hurts Russia.”
For equity markets, however, the geopolitical conflict may compound volatility already stirred up by investors jittery over the potential for the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively in the near-term. With inflation running at a 40-year high and the labor market on solid ground, investors are largely expecting the Fed to raise benchmark interest rates between five and seven times this year.
Conflict in Ukraine “could actually build the worst-case scenario for the Fed, in the sense that you could see energy prices move higher, [and] if you start to see gasoline prices go north of $4 per gallon, I think that could crimp consumer spending,” Larry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance Live. “And then obviously, if energy prices go higher, that could lead to further inflationary pressures. And that could be a double-edged sword that the Fed could be challenged by.”
Later this week, investors are set to receive another batch of earnings results from companies including Airbnb (ABNB), DoorDash (DASH), Walmart (WMT) and Roku (ROKU). Economic data reports will include the Commerce Department’s January retail sales report, which is likely to show sales rebounded in January after dipping in December.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Stocks sink, Dow drops 400+ points
Here’s where stocks were trading Monday afternoon:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -50.89 (-1.15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,367.75
Dow (^DJI): -402.1 (-1.16{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,335.96
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -113.38 (-0.82{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 13,677.10
Crude (CL=F): +$2.01 (+2.16{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $95.11 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$30.90 (+1.68{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,873.00 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +1.6 bps to yield 1.967{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
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12:02 p.m. ET: Peloton shares drop as new CEO says pushes back on near-term sale: Financial Times
Shares of Peloton (PTON) dropped Monday after newly installed CEO Barry McCarthy suggested to the Financial Times that a near-term sale of the company was unlikely to occur.
McCarthy, who is moving to New York from California for his new role leading the connected fitness company, told the media outlet, “If I thought it was likely that the business was going to be acquired in the foreseeable future, I can’t imagine it would be a rational act to move across the country.”
The remarks follow weeks of speculation and separate reports that companies including Amazon and Nike were considering purchasing the company. Peloton shares have fallen 5.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the year-to-date and 78{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over the past year.
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10:51 a.m. ET: ‘We might have to get used to a protracted period of time where we have uncertainty around Russia’: Strategist
Markets have been whipsawed by emerging headlines around the Russia and Ukraine conflict in the past week — and investors may need to prepare for a more extended period of uncertainty about the geopolitical situation, according to at least one strategist.
“I think it’s a major concern. I don’t think we’re going to war any time soon. I think Russia is going to want to go ahead and essentially dance along with us,” David Tawil, ProChain Capital President, told Yahoo Finance Live on Monday. “And I think there’s the point where we might have to get used to a protracted period of time where we have uncertainty around Russia, around Ukraine, around a lot of commodities for those reasons. Much like COVID, we may have to go ahead and live with this for an extended period of time.”
“That will not be taken well by the markets in the short-term, but I think over the long-term, we will go ahead and digest that and go ahead and move on,” he added.
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9:36 a.m. ET: Gas prices jump to highest level since 2014, adding to inflation woes
Prices for gas at the pump climbed to a fresh seven-year high, according to new data from AAA, in another sign of inflationary pressures hitting consumers’ wallets across the country.
The average price for a gallon of gas increased to $3.488 as of Monday, AAA said. According to Bloomberg historical data, this marked the highest level since August 2014. The rise has tracked an extended jump in crude oil prices, with energy supply concerns rising alongside mounting tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
In the comparable year-ago period, the average price a gallon of gas was a $2.505 nationally. A month ago, the price was $3.306.
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9:31 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower amid geopolitical tensions
Here were the main moves in markets just after the opening bell Monday morning:
S&P 500 (^GSPC): -3.76 (-0.09{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 4,414.88
Dow (^DJI): -22.10 (-0.06{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 34,715.96
Nasdaq (^IXIC): -22.54 (-0.24{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 13,758.22
Crude (CL=F): -$0.70 (-0.75{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $92.40 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$21.80 (+1.18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,863.90 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): +3 bps to yield 1.981{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
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7:33 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures extend gains, led by tech
Here were the main moves in markets as of Monday morning:
S&P 500 futures (ES=F): -40 points (-0.91{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}), to 4,369.50
Dow futures (YM=F): -272 points (-0.79{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}), to 34,355.00
Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): -164 points (-1.15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to 14,076.50
Crude (CL=F): -$0.26 (-0.28{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $92.84 a barrel
Gold (GC=F): +$16.20 (+0.88{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}) to $1,858.30 per ounce
10-year Treasury (^TNX): -1.6 bps to yield 1.935{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}
Photo by: NDZ/STAR MAX/IPx 2022 2/11/22 People walk past the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street on February 11, 2022 in New York.
As I’m sure you saw, inflation numbers came out red-hot on Thursday, with prices for the month of January rising at an annualized rate of 7.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, the highest since February 1982. “This is a big shock to me,” says Jian Yang, professor of finance at University of Colorado. “When I hear that this inflation rate is the highest in 40 years, that really causes some concern about a challenge to the U.S. economy.”
So I think it’s worth going back four decades or so to see what caused inflation then, how it was tamed, its collateral effects — and to see how all that applies to today.
First, just a note on how unfamiliar this is. Let’s agree that you’re not aware of an economic phenomenon like inflation until you’re say, 10 years old. Therefore, no American under the age 50 has really experienced inflation. (The population of the U.S. is 329 million and the number of Americans over 50 is about 116 million, which means that 213 million Americans, or some two-thirds of us, have never lived with inflation.)
In fact, most of us are used to goods and services getting ever cheaper. This chart shows prices of a number of food items declining over the past 40 years even more than the overall rate of inflation, and even after recently ticking up.
Chart by David Foster, graphics specialist at Yahoo Finance
Let’s now hop in the hot tub time machine and travel back to the last time we faced inflation. Students of economic history may recall reading about those WIN, or Whip Inflation Now, buttons the government sent out. Was that in 1982? No, the buttons came out years earlier, which speaks to a potentially alarming point. By February 1982 inflation was on the downswing. Economists were delighted with that month’s number of 7.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, a four-year low, down from 11.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} a year earlier. Inflation actually peaked at 14.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in March 1980. To wit: Nothing to say inflation won’t climb more.
Inflation had been a nagging problem for years back then, starting around 1974 when Gerald Ford was in office. It was in October of that year, with inflation running at 12.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, that Ford declared inflation “public enemy number one” in a speech before Congress. (I always wondered what James Cagney thought about that public enemy business.)
Ford’s plan included a number of measures to bring inflation under control which included carpooling, turning down thermostats and growing vegetables. He also asked citizens to sign a pledge they would send to Washington to receive a WIN button. As a 14-year-old I remember vividly scrutinizing prices of items on supermarket shelves. I also remember those WIN pins, as they were objects of ridicule.
People wore them upside down which read “NIM,” saying it stood for “No Immediate Miracles” or “Need Immediate Money.” There were also earrings,World War II-like bric-a-brac and sweaters (which I mentioned last June).
Even worse for Ford, none of it worked. Inflation trended down toward the 1976 election, but Jimmy Carter still beat Ford in large part because of the poor economy. Once again inflation dipped but in 1979 it roared back over 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. That, along with the Iran hostage crisis, doomed Carter in his reelection bid, and he lost to Ronald Reagan.
Besides being the undoing at least in part of two presidencies, what can we learn about inflation back then? How can we apply it to today?
(Original Caption) Washington, D. C.: President Reagan meets with Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in the Oval Office 7/16. Volcker gave Reagan some talking points for use if other summit leaders in Ottawa express their growing concern over high interest rates. Volcker’s response that issues is that the health of the world economy is dependent on getting US inflation under control.
First off let’s explore what caused inflation in the 1970s. In retrospect it’s pretty easy to see. Cause number one was Vietnam. Economist Tom Riddell did a nice job here of laying out how the Vietnam War — which was roughly from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s — led to higher prices. President Johnson wanted to wage the war and increase social programs but didn’t want to raise taxes, so spending and the federal deficit climbed, which heated up the economy which the Washington Post explains here.
Cause number two were oil shocks, the first coming in 1973 when OPEC enacted an oil embargo on countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The second was in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. Obviously both pushed up oil prices, which raised costs all across the economy in what is known as cost-push inflation.
What’s causing inflation today? Number one, COVID-19 created all manner of supply shortages. Number two, trillion-dollar government spending programs particularly in the U.S., plus the Fed expanding its balance sheet. And number three the decline of globalism, which had optimized for the cheapest production of goods.
Where do we go from here? With any luck, COVID and its accompanying trade friction will go away. And government programs are running their course. But both COVID and government programs were massive events. As for nationalism, I don’t think that’s reversing anytime soon. Yes, technology will drive costs down, but I don’t see inflation disappearing overnight.
Finally, I want to touch on collateral effects, starting with decades ago. Among other developments back then, higher prices led to the creation and/or proliferation of generic brands (private label), dollar stores and even the rise of Walmart and other discounters, as consumers searched for low-priced goods to mitigate inflation. If inflation persists today I would anticipate Newton’s third law — for every action an equal and opposite reaction — coming into play. In other words some new business models will address and take advantage of it. For some, inflation won’t be a problem. It will be an opportunity.
This article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on February 12, 2022. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe
Andy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter: @serwer
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