Carnival cruise passenger seen in video moments before reportedly jumping off ship

Carnival cruise passenger seen in video moments before reportedly jumping off ship

A Carnival cruise ship passenger was caught on digital camera having difficulties with protection moments before she reportedly jumped overboard into the Gulf of Mexico. 

In the cell mobile phone video acquired by FOX 8, the girl, 32, is found becoming pulled to her feet by safety guards on the deck of the Carnival Valor ship on Wednesday. 

The ship was on a 5-working day cruise to Mexico that departed Saturday, Carnival told FOX Organization. 

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The girl is then observed having difficulties as the guards try and maintain her arms driving her back again. At a single position, the lady can be heard screaming “Alicia” before being escorted away by security. 

The clip cuts off and then reveals passengers dashing to the edge of the ship looking above the balcony following the female had reportedly previously jumped into the drinking water. Crew users were being also viewed rushing to the facet with lifestyle preservers. 

Carnival advised FOX Small business that the passenger was by no means in handcuffs at any stage throughout the incident. 

US Coastline Guard responds to studies of cruise ship passenger overboard in Gulf of Mexico (WVUE-DT)

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Other passengers posted videos to Twitter times just after the female allegedly jumped, with a person demonstrating a daily life preserver floating in the water close by. 

Carnival beforehand advised Fox Information that it been given reports about a female visitor who jumped overboard from her balcony although the ship was at sea. 

A corporation spokesperson explained the ship’s command straight away began research and rescue procedures and returned to the area in close proximity to where the incident happened and notified the U.S. Coastline Guard. 

“Carnival’s Treatment group is providing assistance to the guest’s partner who was traveling with her,” the spokesperson explained. 

US Coast GUARD RESPONDS TO Stories OF CRUISE SHIP PASSENGER OVERBOARD IN GULF OF MEXICO

Even so, just after 14 hours of hunting, the Coast Guard declared that it suspended its mission. 

After having the get in touch with Wednesday, U.S. Coast Guard District 8 started seeking for the passenger around 150 miles offshore SouthWest Go. 

Crews canvassed more than 2,514 sq. nautical miles off the coastline of Louisiana. 

“The decision to suspend a research-and-rescue scenario is by no means 1 we appear to frivolously,” claimed Main Warrant Officer Tricia Eldredge, Command Duty Officer at Sector New Orleans. “We offer our deepest sympathies to the family through this difficult time.”

The ship arrived back again its home port of New Orleans on Thursday early morning, Carnival claimed. 

FOX News’ Bradford Betz contributed to this report. 

Business News for Feb. 17, 2022

Business News for Feb. 17, 2022
Credit score…Pete Marovich for The New York Occasions

The Biden administration on Thursday added WeChat’s e-commerce ecosystem and AliExpress, an e-commerce web site owned by Alibaba, to an once-a-year checklist of marketplaces that the United States states engage in counterfeiting and copyright violations.

The administration mentioned the things to do brought about major monetary losses for American organizations and personnel and posed threats to client security previous 12 months.

The Biden administration also eliminated from the list quite a few of Amazon’s foreign shops, which the Trump administration had included for the initial time to its report unveiled in January final calendar year.

The inclusion of Amazon’s retailers in Britain, Canada, France, Germany and India prompted an outcry from the enterprise, which claimed that its inclusion was driven by a “personal vendetta” on behalf of the Trump administration, in spite of purchaser problems about faux goods on the platform.

The new report, unveiled by the Office environment of the United States Trade Representative, recognized 42 on line marketplaces and 35 bodily marketplaces that bought or eased trade in a huge array of counterfeit or pirated items, together with phony Nike products and solutions, pirated publications and academic papers, new music data files and virtual goods like online video video games.

The list provided several big Chinese e-commerce organizations, like Taobao, an e-commerce web-site owned by Alibaba DHGate, a organization-to-organization e-commerce system and Baidu Wangpan, a cloud storage company that will allow end users to share pirated motion pictures, Television shows and guides.

In a statement, Alibaba mentioned that it appeared ahead to continuing to perform with governments to fully grasp and handle considerations about intellectual property safety across its platforms.

“We know the issues in I.P. defense and keep on being absolutely committed to advancing our management in this area,” the business mentioned.

A push officer for Tencent, which owns WeChat, explained in a assertion that the business strongly disagreed with the selection and that it monitored and deterred intellectual assets rights violations.

The protection of intellectual home rights “is central to our business,” the statement reported. “We just take a detailed method, dependent on market best tactics, to combating counterfeiting and infringement on all of our platforms.”

The office said some countries experienced designed progress in cracking down on the sale of counterfeit merchandise, together with Brazil, the Philippines, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates. It also said it experienced documented a change of pirated goods from bodily marketplaces to on line, in element simply because the pandemic depressed worldwide tourism.

The report also determined a new ecosystem: “piracy-as-a-company,” in which operators present website templates, databases of infringed video clip written content or other capabilities that make it straightforward for clients to set up pirate functions.

“The world-wide trade in counterfeit and pirated goods undermines crucial U.S. innovation and creativity and harms American personnel,” Katherine Tai, the United States trade consultant, stated in a statement. “This illicit trade also increases the vulnerability of staff associated in the production of counterfeit items to exploitative labor methods, and the counterfeit merchandise can pose substantial challenges to the overall health and protection of shoppers and employees close to the globe.”

The report also examined the effect of counterfeit products on the people who make them, section of the administration’s focus on how trade has an effect on staff. For the reason that these corporations function outside the law, counterfeiting and piracy often go hand in hand with unsafe functioning disorders, baby labor, compelled labor and other problems, the trade representative’s workplace claimed.

“Counterfeit manufacturing often occurs in clandestine perform sites outside the access of labor sector polices and inspection methods, which boosts the vulnerability of workers to exploitative labor techniques,” the report reported.

The report will outcome in no rapid penalties for the named organizations, while it said the purpose of publishing these types of a list was to “motivate proper motion by the private sector and governments.”

Congress is mulling some actions that could clamp down on Chinese e-commerce revenue, together with counterfeit products, to the United States as component of a important legislative exertion at marketing U.S. financial competitiveness with China.

A single provision, proposed by Representative Earl Blumenauer, Democrat of Oregon, would increase the threshold for the greenback benefit of a great that could occur into the United States obligation absolutely free from sure international locations, namely China.

That amount, called de minimis, is established at $800 in the United States. That’s considerably earlier mentioned the degree in many other international locations, a plan that critics say has led to an explosion of imported e-commerce packages, together with some unsafe and illicit products.

Jurors in the Sarah Palin trial said they knew of the judge’s decision to dismiss before their verdict.

Jurors in the Sarah Palin trial said they knew of the judge’s decision to dismiss before their verdict.
Credit score…Karsten Moran for The New York Situations

Price ranges ended up growing speedy, merchandise were in limited offer and the Omicron variant place a chill on the country at the begin of the yr. By means of it all, American individuals held paying.

Retail profits rose 3.8 {21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in January from the prior month, the Commerce Section reported on Wednesday, a a lot quicker-than-expected rebound from a sharp decrease in December and another indicator of the economy’s resilience, even as shops shortened their hours or closed as a surge in Covid-19 bacterial infections led to prevalent staffing shortages. Wednesday’s income info echoed a report that confirmed employing was more powerful than predicted final month, with employers introducing 467,000 jobs.

Other components ended up at engage in, way too, most notably speedy-soaring prices. The retail revenue data wasn’t adjusted to account for inflation, and that could continue to raise the product sales figures for months to appear, economists said. But the total takeaway was however that buyer paying out held up very last month.

“We are observing a strong bounce to start the year, suggesting favourable momentum for now, in spite of elevated prices,” reported Rubeela Farooqi, the main U.S. economist at Higher Frequency Economics.

Shopper investing accounts for the bulk of financial exercise in the United States, and the report arrived at a important time for the economic climate, as the Federal Reserve shifts its concentrate to battling inflation from supporting growth. The central bank is anticipated to raise curiosity costs as before long as up coming month, and climbing borrowing charges could dampen expending by individuals and corporations.

Other factors could also suppress paying out. An growth of the boy or girl tax credit rating — as a result of which the govt deposited as significantly as $300 for each child into qualifying Americans’ bank accounts each and every month — finished at the get started of the 12 months, and despite the fact that consumers have not been deterred by inflation nonetheless, there have been signals it is starting to use them down. Just one measure of customer sentiment produced this month — the College of Michigan’s Index of Customer Sentiment — confirmed the least favorable prolonged-term economic outlook in a decade.

“I assume it’s a subject of time in advance of there is pushback in terms of people stepping back, and which is one thing we will need to figure into our estimates,” Ms. Farooqi claimed.

Some of January’s leap in gross sales likely experienced to do with a single-off components like a restocking of cabinets that had emptied out very last 12 months, explained Beth Ann Bovino, the chief U.S. economist at S&P International. With far more available to acquire, investing improved, she explained.

Another was that people use gift playing cards in January soon after obtaining them as Xmas provides. Sales of gift playing cards really do not display up in the knowledge until finally they have been utilised, she claimed.

“If they get it on Dec. 25, they probably acquire it out in January when they are performed with their festivities,” Ms. Bovino explained, noting that shoppers may be a lot more forgiving of larger rates when “they are acquiring with other people’s income.”

Additionally, paying out designs have become significantly less predictable for the duration of the pandemic, complicating attempts to predict what will occur up coming. Prior to the pandemic, holiday browsing would force retail income larger in December, and a slowdown in expending would be mirrored in January. This year’s gain followed a fall in December that on Wednesday was revised to 2.5 per cent.

Nevertheless, Ms. Bovino observed that “people had been even now spending” in January, and the getting was broad-based mostly: Income at vehicle dealers rose 5.7 per cent in excess of the previous month, when e-commerce income rose 14.5 percent. Paying at electronics and appliances shops rose 1.9 percent, and revenue at clothes and common products shops, these kinds of as department stores, were being increased as properly.

The influence of the most up-to-date coronavirus wave was evident in some sectors. Paying out at dining establishments, bars and gasoline stations fell about 1 percent as men and women stayed residence. But all round, profits in January rose far quicker than the 2 per cent attain economists experienced expected.

Shoppers were paying out even as they confronted rapid-mounting prices and short supplies of new cars, appliances and considerably far more. Client price ranges in January greater .6 p.c from the prior thirty day period, the authorities said last week, and 7.5 per cent from 12 months previously. Offer-chain woes coupled with solid purchaser demand pushed charges larger via all of very last yr.

Several shopper solutions firms have mentioned lately that gross sales have held up even as they have amplified costs to offset greater labor and transportation charges. Procter & Gamble, the maker of Crest toothpaste and Tide detergent, said previous month that price boosts aided drive profits 6 p.c larger from a calendar year previously, to $21 billion in the 3 months that ended Dec. 31.

Kraft Heinz documented on Wednesday that it elevated selling prices 3.8 per cent from a calendar year previously in the three months that finished in December. Its gross sales slipped in the quarter but had been stronger than analysts had predicted, many thanks largely to the price tag increases.

Ms. Farooqi explained further optimistic economic readings in the coming months could lead economists to elevate their forecasts for economic expansion this 12 months, simply because “consumer investing has pushed this restoration.”

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect gross domestic product — the broadest evaluate of the nation’s manufacturing of items and companies — to develop 3.7 percent in 2022, a slowdown from expansion of 5.7 {21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in 2021.

“Our base case was that client paying would slow coming into 2022 as fiscal measures expired and savings diminished,” Ms. Farooqi claimed. “But the employment details that came out confirmed favourable momentum in work growth, which has implications for revenue growth, which has implications for paying out.”

Correction: 

An previously variation of this write-up misstated the boost in spending at electronics and appliances shops in January. Income rose 1.9 {21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the prior thirty day period, not 4.6 percent.

Tim Hortons focuses its next phase of U.S. expansion on snowbirds and retirees

Tim Hortons focuses its next phase of U.S. expansion on snowbirds and retirees

A pedestrian walks past a Tim Hortons restaurant.

Ben Nelms | Bloomberg | Getty Photographs

Tim Hortons is slated to open its to start with place in Houston this summertime, signaling the Canadian coffee chain’s approach to go further more south for its next phase of U.S. growth.

The Cafe Brands Worldwide chain has more than 600 U.S. places, which can make it the third-most significant espresso chain in the region, trailing behind Starbucks and Dunkin’. But it really is a distant third area, and the chain has struggled to take maintain with U.S. individuals despite previous tries, courting back decades back when it was owned by Wendy’s. Continue to, Tims is seeking to erase the hole and overtake Dunkin’. In 2021, the chain noticed its strongest new restaurant development in the U.S. considering the fact that 2016.

Jose Cil, main executive of mum or dad organization RBI, said in an job interview that the chain’s packaged coffee small business is rising “fairly extensively” in the U.S. via direct-to-buyer web page income and in grocery retailers.

“It is really a fantastic indicator of recognition, as perfectly as need for our goods, so you can find a range of marketplaces in the U.S., south of our southermost places to eat: places like Texas, like Florida,” he said.

Most of Tims’ recent U.S. locations are concentrated in states that share a border with Canada: New York, Michigan and Ohio. The future section of U.S. enlargement will aim on markets like Texas and Florida, according to Cil.

“Among snowbirds and people that have moved down to Florida completely, you can find a lot more than 3.5 million Canadians, so manufacturer awareness is seriously sturdy. Need is robust. We just will need to be there to fulfill it,” Cil said.

In current decades, the enterprise has rethought its business design. It rebuilt several of its Ohio destinations with smaller sized square footage. Cil mentioned the new format is speedier to develop and has better unit economics than the old model. The new U.S. restaurants are also targeted on beverages, baked items and very hot breakfast sandwiches, as opposed to its Canadian merchants, which have been pushing into lunch and evening meal.

“We’re not a comprehensive-blown [quick-service restaurant], we are targeted on what we do most effective,” Cil explained.

The U.S. is not the only worldwide market place seeing aggressive growth from Tims. The chain lately opened its 400th site in China, fewer than three a long time immediately after opening its initially.

In its house current market of Canada, Tims has faced a good share of struggles. Prior to the pandemic, it was in turnaround method, upgrading its espresso and foodstuff choices and launching a loyalty software in the facial area of stagnating gross sales growth. Covid outbreaks set additional force on its comeback.

Having said that, the chain described Canadian similar-retailer revenue growth of 11.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the fourth quarter, aided by sales from loyalty method associates and preferred promotions, like a collaboration with singer Justin Bieber.

Shares of Restaurant Brand names were being up a lot more than 3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in afternoon trading on Tuesday immediately after the organization noted its fourth-quarter effects. Its earnings and income both equally topped Wall Street’s estimates, a rarity this quarter for cafe providers as they encounter bigger fees.

US Suspends Mexican Avocado Imports on Eve of Super Bowl | Business News

US Suspends Mexican Avocado Imports on Eve of Super Bowl | Business News

By MARK STEVENSON, Related Push

MEXICO City (AP) — Mexico has acknowledged that the U.S. governing administration has suspended all imports of Mexican avocados immediately after a U.S. plant security inspector in Mexico gained a menace.

The shock, non permanent suspension was confirmed late Saturday on the eve of the Tremendous Bowl, the most significant profits prospect of the yr for Mexican avocado growers — while it would not have an effect on game-day usage considering that individuals avocados experienced now been shipped.

Avocado exports are the most recent target of the drug cartel turf battles and extortion of avocado growers in the western state of Michoacan, the only condition in Mexico absolutely licensed to export to the U.S. industry.

The U.S. government suspended all imports of Mexican avocados “until even further notice” right after a U.S. plant protection inspector in Mexico been given a threatening message, Mexico’s Agriculture Division claimed in a assertion.

Political Cartoons

“U.S. overall health authorities … made the final decision after one of their officers, who was carrying out inspections in Uruapan, Michoacan, been given a threatening message on his formal cellphone,” the department wrote.

The import ban came on the working day that the Mexican avocado growers and packers association unveiled its Super Bowl advert for this 12 months. Mexican exporters have taken out the pricey advertisements for pretty much a ten years in a bid to affiliate guacamole as a Super Bowl tradition.

This year’s ad demonstrates Julius Caesar and a tough bunch of gladiator supporters outdoors what appears to be the Colosseum, soothing their seemingly violent dissimilarities by having fun with guacamole and avocados.

The affiliation did not instantly respond to a ask for for comment on the ban, which hits an field with almost $3 billion in yearly exports. Having said that, avocados for this year’s Tremendous Bowl had presently been exported in the months prior to the celebration.

The U.S. Embassy wrote that “facilitating the export of Mexican avocados to the U.S. and guaranteeing the security of our agricultural inspection staff go hand in hand.”

“We are doing work with the Mexican authorities to assurance safety problems that would allow for our personnel in Michoacan to resume functions,” the embassy wrote in its social media accounts.

For the reason that the United States also grows avocados, U.S. inspectors perform in Mexico to assure exported avocados really don’t have diseases that could damage U.S. crops.

It was only in 1997 that the U.S. lifted a ban on Mexican avocados that had been in location considering the fact that 1914 to prevent a assortment of weevils, scabs and pests from coming into U.S. orchards.

The inspectors operate for the U.S. Section of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Wellbeing Inspection Providers.

It is not the first time that the violence in Michoacan — where the Jalisco cartel is combating turf wars towards a selection of area gangs known as the United Cartels — has threatened avocados, the state’s most valuable crop.

Immediately after a earlier incident in 2019, the USDA had warned about the probable penalties of attacking or threatening U.S. inspectors.

In August 2019, a U.S. Section of Agriculture workforce of inspectors was “directly threatened” in Ziracuaretiro, a town just west of Uruapan. Although the agency didn’t specify what happened, community authorities say a gang robbed the truck the inspectors were traveling in at gunpoint.

The USDA wrote in a letter at the time that, “For long run situations that end result in a safety breach, or display an imminent bodily threat to the nicely-remaining of APHIS staff, we will promptly suspend plan pursuits.”

Lots of avocado growers in Michoacan say drug gangs threaten them or their family users with kidnapping or dying unless they pay back security cash, from time to time amounting to 1000’s of bucks per acre.

On September 30, 2020, a Mexican personnel of APHIS was killed close to the northern border town of Tijuana.

Mexican prosecutors claimed Edgar Flores Santos was killed by drug traffickers who may have mistaken him for a policeman and a suspect was arrested. The U.S. Point out Division explained investigations “concluded this unlucky incident was a situation of Mr. Flores currently being in the completely wrong area at the mistaken time.”

The avocado ban was just the most current danger to Mexico’s export trade stemming from the government’s lack of ability to rein in unlawful pursuits.

On Thursday, the U.S. Trade Representative’s Workplace submitted an environmental criticism in opposition to Mexico for failing to end unlawful fishing to shield the critically endangered vaquita marina, the world’s smallest porpoise.

The office said it experienced requested for “environment consultations” with Mexico, the first such circumstance it has filed underneath the U.S.-Mexico-Canada totally free trade pact. Consultations are the very first phase in the dispute resolution procedure under the trade settlement, which entered into drive in 2020. If not fixed, it could inevitably direct to trade sanctions.

Mexico’s federal government has mainly abandoned attempts to enforce a fishing-no cost zone all-around an space where the final number of vaquitas are considered to stay in the Gulf of California, also acknowledged as the Sea of Cortez. Nets set illegally for yet another fish, the totoaba, drown vaquitas.

And on Monday, Mexican fishing boats in the Gulf of Mexico had been “prohibited from getting into U.S. ports, will be denied port accessibility and providers,” the Countrywide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated, in reaction to several years of Mexican boats illegally poaching purple snapper in U.S. waters in the Gulf.

Copyright 2022 The Involved Push. All rights reserved. This materials may perhaps not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Inflation is the business opportunity of a lifetime

Inflation is the business opportunity of a lifetime

Inflation? Oh yeah, I’m old enough to remember.

As I’m sure you saw, inflation numbers came out red-hot on Thursday, with prices for the month of January rising at an annualized rate of 7.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, the highest since February 1982. “This is a big shock to me,” says Jian Yang, professor of finance at University of Colorado. “When I hear that this inflation rate is the highest in 40 years, that really causes some concern about a challenge to the U.S. economy.”

So I think it’s worth going back four decades or so to see what caused inflation then, how it was tamed, its collateral effects — and to see how all that applies to today.

First, just a note on how unfamiliar this is. Let’s agree that you’re not aware of an economic phenomenon like inflation until you’re say, 10 years old. Therefore, no American under the age 50 has really experienced inflation. (The population of the U.S. is 329 million and the number of Americans over 50 is about 116 million, which means that 213 million Americans, or some two-thirds of us, have never lived with inflation.)

In fact, most of us are used to goods and services getting ever cheaper. This chart shows prices of a number of food items declining over the past 40 years even more than the overall rate of inflation, and even after recently ticking up.

Chart by David Foster, graphics specialist at Yahoo Finance

Chart by David Foster, graphics specialist at Yahoo Finance

Let’s now hop in the hot tub time machine and travel back to the last time we faced inflation. Students of economic history may recall reading about those WIN, or Whip Inflation Now, buttons the government sent out. Was that in 1982? No, the buttons came out years earlier, which speaks to a potentially alarming point. By February 1982 inflation was on the downswing. Economists were delighted with that month’s number of 7.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, a four-year low, down from 11.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} a year earlier. Inflation actually peaked at 14.8{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in March 1980. To wit: Nothing to say inflation won’t climb more.

Inflation had been a nagging problem for years back then, starting around 1974 when Gerald Ford was in office. It was in October of that year, with inflation running at 12.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, that Ford declared inflation “public enemy number one” in a speech before Congress. (I always wondered what James Cagney thought about that public enemy business.)

Ford’s plan included a number of measures to bring inflation under control which included carpooling, turning down thermostats and growing vegetables. He also asked citizens to sign a pledge they would send to Washington to receive a WIN button. As a 14-year-old I remember vividly scrutinizing prices of items on supermarket shelves. I also remember those WIN pins, as they were objects of ridicule.

People wore them upside down which read “NIM,” saying it stood for “No Immediate Miracles” or “Need Immediate Money.” There were also earrings, World War II-like bric-a-brac and sweaters (which I mentioned last June).

Alan Greenspan, a White House adviser, then later wrote WIN was “unbelievably stupid.” The Washington Post called the WIN campaign “one of the biggest government public relations blunders ever.”

Even worse for Ford, none of it worked. Inflation trended down toward the 1976 election, but Jimmy Carter still beat Ford in large part because of the poor economy. Once again inflation dipped but in 1979 it roared back over 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. That, along with the Iran hostage crisis, doomed Carter in his reelection bid, and he lost to Ronald Reagan.

Besides being the undoing at least in part of two presidencies, what can we learn about inflation back then? How can we apply it to today?

(Original Caption) Washington, D. C.: President Reagan meets with Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in the Oval Office 7/16. Volcker gave Reagan some talking points for use if other summit leaders in Ottawa express their growing concern over high interest rates. Volcker's response that issues is that the health of the world economy is dependent on getting US inflation under control.

(Original Caption) Washington, D. C.: President Reagan meets with Paul Volcker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in the Oval Office 7/16. Volcker gave Reagan some talking points for use if other summit leaders in Ottawa express their growing concern over high interest rates. Volcker’s response that issues is that the health of the world economy is dependent on getting US inflation under control.

First off let’s explore what caused inflation in the 1970s. In retrospect it’s pretty easy to see. Cause number one was Vietnam. Economist Tom Riddell did a nice job here of laying out how the Vietnam War — which was roughly from the mid-1960s to the mid-1970s — led to higher prices. President Johnson wanted to wage the war and increase social programs but didn’t want to raise taxes, so spending and the federal deficit climbed, which heated up the economy which the Washington Post explains here.

Cause number two were oil shocks, the first coming in 1973 when OPEC enacted an oil embargo on countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. The second was in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution and the Iran-Iraq war. Obviously both pushed up oil prices, which raised costs all across the economy in what is known as cost-push inflation.

What finally tamed inflation were draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker, who raised rates — the prime rate hit 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in June 1981 — and targeted money supply, as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole.

What’s causing inflation today? Number one, COVID-19 created all manner of supply shortages. Number two, trillion-dollar government spending programs particularly in the U.S., plus the Fed expanding its balance sheet. And number three the decline of globalism, which had optimized for the cheapest production of goods.

Where do we go from here? With any luck, COVID and its accompanying trade friction will go away. And government programs are running their course. But both COVID and government programs were massive events. As for nationalism, I don’t think that’s reversing anytime soon. Yes, technology will drive costs down, but I don’t see inflation disappearing overnight.

Finally, I want to touch on collateral effects, starting with decades ago. Among other developments back then, higher prices led to the creation and/or proliferation of generic brands (private label), dollar stores and even the rise of Walmart and other discounters, as consumers searched for low-priced goods to mitigate inflation. If inflation persists today I would anticipate Newton’s third law — for every action an equal and opposite reaction — coming into play. In other words some new business models will address and take advantage of it. For some, inflation won’t be a problem. It will be an opportunity.

This article was featured in a Saturday edition of the Morning Brief on February 12, 2022. Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe

Andy Serwer is editor-in-chief of Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter: @serwer

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