Can Bob Iger fix Disney?

Can Bob Iger fix Disney?


New York
CNN Business
 — 

Bob Iger is returning to Disney as CEO, retaking the reins of a company that’s very different from the one he led when he stepped down as chief executive in February 2020.

With $1.5 billion in streaming losses last quarter alone, park fans unhappy, sinking cable networks like ESPN dealing with cord cutting, and a moribund stock price, Iger has his work cut out for him.

Disney’s problems are vast, and fixing them all may not be possible, particularly in the two years that Iger said he’d dedicate to the company in his return to the C-suite.

But If anyone can bring back the magic to the Walt Disney Company, the company believes Bob Iger may be uniquely qualified to do it.

In a shocking move, Bob Iger is returning as Disney's CEO.

The first priority: the streaming business.

Disney’s streaming service — which includes ESPN+, Hulu and most importantly, Disney+ — had been the most vital part of the company’s vast media kingdom. It served as a life raft for Disney in the early days of the pandemic — one of the most tumultuous periods in the company’s history — and grew to 100 million subscribers in just 16 months. Now, that business has become an anchor that’s weighing it down.

The company reported earlier this month that Disney+ exceeded Wall Street’s expectations for subscriber growth. But that came at a great cost for the company: Disney said its streaming business lost $1.5 billion in the quarter, news that sent Disney’s stock tumbling.

The days of “growing streaming at any cost” are over for Wall Street, and now Iger and the rest of Disney’s leadership have to prove to investors that its streaming business can achieve profitability while also continuing to grow.

This more than anything else is what will move the needle on Disney’s stock, which is down roughly 40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} for the year.

“He needs to refocus streaming, as well as other parts of the company, back to the core Disney consumer,” Trip Miller, a Disney investor and managing partner at hedge fund Gullane Capital Partners, told CNN Business. “This consumer is family-friendly, global and multi-generational. That’s the beauty of Disney, right? It’s not just kids, it’s not just adults. When it’s working, it can be everybody.”

That refocusing effort is easier said than done, especially considering that other parts of the company are not as solid as they used to be.

Disney's streaming efforts are deeply important to the company's bottom line.

Disney’s media networks are struggling as cord cutting accelerates and once lucrative outlets like ESPN lose viewership. That has hurt Disney’s entire business.

This was a major point of contention for Dan Loeb, the activist investor and Third Point CEO who made headlines in August when he suggested “a strong case can be made that the ESPN business should be spun off to shareholders with an appropriate debt load.”

Loeb eventually had a change of heart, but the point was made: streaming is the new frontier for Disney, and Iger needs to prove that it can make money while Disney’s legacy networks continue to shrink.

As for the company’s studio entertainment, when Iger stepped down in early 2020, it came after a year in which Disney had seven films make $1 billion each at the global box office. Compare that to this year, which has had just two movies make $1 billion each at the global box office across all studios, according to Comscore

(SCOR)
.

That fall shows how much streaming and the pandemic severely disrupted the movie industry. Although recovering, box office sales continue to underperform the year before the pandemic.

Now, Disney is trying to figure how big releases from signature brands like Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm fit in a new theatrical ecosystem.

Iger has to fix not just financial miscues but also cultural ones at Disney.

Iger also has to correct the symbolic miscues that his successor — and now predecessor — Bob Chapek made during his run.

Chapek did a good job overseeing the parks unit during a pandemic. But once the Covid restrictions were lifted, the company raised prices and launched new initiatives, such as the pricy Genie+ system, that sparked the ire of Disney’s deeply loyal guests, many of whom felt they were being price gouged.

Disney’s delicate internal culture and brand also took some hits during Chapek’s tenure.

The CEO found himself dealing with a pay dispute involving Scarlett Johansson, one of the studio’s biggest stars, that spilled into public view. Then there was Disney’s battles with Florida politicians, and its own employees, regarding the state’s controversial law restricting the discussion of certain LGBTQ+ topics in classrooms.

That, in particular, was a flashpoint of Chapek’s stint at Disney. In March, he was forced to apologize for his silence on the bill after initially declining to publicly comment on it.

Ultimately, Disney’s board moved on from those PR bumps and Chapek’s contract was renewed in July until 2025. Yet, the damage was arguably done to Disney’s brand.

Disney’s brand image is vital to its success, portraying an aura of a magical, family-friendly cultural institution.

Iger made his first moves as CEO on Monday by reorganizing Disney’s content distribution structure.

The CEO said in a memo to employees that Kareem Daniel, the chairman of Disney’s Media and Entertainment Distribution unit, will be leaving the company.

As for Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution, Iger notes in a memo to employees that “without question, elements of DMED will remain, but I fundamentally believe that storytelling is what fuels this company, and it belongs at the center of how we organize our businesses.”

Disney created the new Media and Entertainment Distribution group in 2020, putting Daniel, who was formerly the president of Disney’s consumer products, games and publishing division, in charge. That unit was in charge of monetizing content via distribution and ad sales. The group also oversaw the operations of the company’s streaming services like Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+.

Iger has his hands full with Disney, which is facing many issues, but has a track record unrivaled in the media world.

In the end, the Disney board decided to bring Iger back because of his long track record of success that has earned him an almost mythical status as the only person who can lead the company. In its statement reintroducing Iger as CEO, Disney said he was “uniquely situated to lead the company through this pivotal period.”

Iger was instrumental in forming the modern Disney. He oversaw the acquisition of major Disney brands, including Pixar, Marvel and Lucasfilm, and he closed the $71 billion deal to buy most of 21st Century Fox. He also kicked off the streaming revolution at the company with the creation of Disney+ in November 2019.

Hollywood insiders viewed Iger’s previous CEO tenure as one of the greatest in Hollywood history.

The mere fact that he’s back at the helm helped calm investor’s nerves: Shares jumped 6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} higher Monday.

“Psychologically, him just being back is a boost to investors and the team at Disney,” Miller said. “With Iger they know what to expect, which is a focus on excellence and a love for the brand. I doubt he’s coming back for money at this point. He’s coming back for legacy and the company itself.”

Over the years, Iger’s “decision-making and strategic positioning — which ignored the Street’s often incorrect short-term focus — would ultimately separate Disney from the media pack,” said Michael Nathanson, a media analyst at MoffettNathanson, in a note to investors Monday.

Nathanson added that Iger’s “communications skills and his ability to stay focused and honestly optimistic in the face of structural challenges provided a constant ballast in the roughest of media waters.”

“We believe investors will value the transparency and return Disney some of its long-lost magic with a stronger narrative driving the stock higher again,” he wrote.

But Iger’s past successes will not guarantee Disney’s future recovery. Hollywood is rapidly evolving, and Disney’s problems are being felt industry-wide. With the media industry in turmoil, Disney hope Iger is up to the tall task of righting its ship.

Stocks rise against backdrop of Fed comments, China COVID surge

Stocks rise against backdrop of Fed comments, China COVID surge

U.S. stocks moved sharply greater Tuesday, with gains accelerating into the last hour of trading right after a mainly uneventful pre-Thanksgiving session.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and technological innovation-large Nasdaq Composite every climbed 1.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Ordinary (^DJI) jumped approximately 400 factors, or about 1.2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The S&P 500 closed higher than 4,000 for the 1st time considering the fact that September, whilst the Dow notched its best close in three months.

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester claimed Tuesday that restoring cost security continues to be best precedence for herself and other members of the Federal Open up Marketplace Committee (FOMC), which sets monetary plan.

“We’re dedicated to employing our resources to put inflation on a sustainable downward trajectory to 2{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996},” she said, in an occasion hosted by her financial institution.

Mester’s feedback appear 1 working day immediately after Federal Reserve Financial institution of San Francisco President Mary Daly Monday mentioned officials may possibly carry the U.S. central bank’s important plan level earlier mentioned 5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} if inflation does not relieve. Daly also observed that writing off a 75-basis-place hike in December is “premature” and that “absolutely nothing is off the desk.”

In commodities markets, oil pared Monday’s losses right after plunging to January lows on fears that fresh lockdowns in China and a noted output improve by Saudia Arabia and OPEC might weigh on demand from customers. Electrical power minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has considering the fact that refuted the prospect of an improve in creation, serving to oil climb back again from declines. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose to about $81 per barrel right after hitting $75 for each barrel on Monday.

A pandemic prevention worker in a protective suit stands outside an apartment compound that was placed under lockdown as outbreaks of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) continue in Beijing, China, November 12, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

A pandemic avoidance worker in a protective suit stands outside an condominium compound that was placed underneath lockdown as outbreaks of the coronavirus ailment (COVID-19) go on in Beijing, China, November 12, 2022. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

On the company side, shares of Zoom Video Communications (ZM) dropped almost 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} immediately after the the video clip-conferencing platform trimmed its yearly profits outlook and projected further more troubles posed by waning demand from customers for on line meetings.

Shares of Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) and American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO), in the meantime, obtained all over 21{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and 18{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}, respectively right after reporting upbeat earnings that lifted sentiment all around the retail sector’s outlook.

A steep climb in COVID circumstances across China has set off a wave of new restrictions for the world’s most significant overall economy just weeks soon after investors cheered the stop of intense lockdowns in the nation.

‘’The specter of COVID is nevertheless hovering above the Chinese economy, threatening to result in fresh new snarl ups for provide chains and need for merchandise,” Susannah Streeter, senior financial commitment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown claimed in a take note Tuesday.

The S&P 500 has started the vacation-shortened Thanksgiving 7 days decrease as opposed to previous decades. According to details from Bespoke Financial investment Team, the Monday of Thanksgiving week has traditionally found the index trade somewhat decreased, with a drop of .01{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. In decades when the index has been down 10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} 12 months-to-date or more, like in 2022, general performance has been more good, with an ordinary .37{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} achieve.

Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Abide by her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc

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Are You On Track For Retirement? How A Financial Plan Can Help You

Are You On Track For Retirement? How A Financial Plan Can Help You

Investing funds for retirement can be overwhelming, specifically due to the fact it’s widespread for upcoming retirees to fear about regardless of whether or not they’re going to have ample money to previous them as a result of their golden a long time.

There are a couple of principles of thumb out there aimed at helping you figure out where by phase you’re at in the retirement cost savings. A single investigation located that you ought to have at minimum your once-a-year salary saved up by age 30 to be on keep track of to retire by age 67. And by age 40, you really should have 3 instances your yearly salary saved.

An additional technique utilizes the 4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} rule to assistance individuals determine their retirement number — you would just multiply your yearly charges by 25 to uncover an “close target” for how a great deal income you require in advance of you can retire with sufficient cash to very last you 30 decades.

But right before you try to begin calculating figures, there is one more important way to observe your retirement price savings progress — and it can be most likely the to start with technique you really should switch to. Liz Sheehan, the Senior Vice President of Prosperity Management at UBS, recommends coming up with a financial prepare when commencing to feel about retirement.

“Regretably, there is no shortcut,” Sheehan suggests. “A in depth economical system is the greatest way for somebody to know if they are on keep track of.”

A financial plan can give you a crystal clear plan of which places you’re presently hitting your targets in and which kinds you want to concentrate on a lot more. Section of coming up with a suitable monetary system indicates finding clear on the points you need to have to do and want to do as you perform towards retirement. For instance, if you know you want to journey the planet in retirement, you can expect to require a large amount much more dollars to float individuals vacation charges when compared to an instance where by your suitable retirement looks additional like downsizing and relocating to a reduced value of dwelling location.

According to Sheehan, there are a few questions you should take into account when coming up with very clear goals and a prepare around retirement:

  • How do you visualize your everyday living and your household in 10 yrs? 20 many years? 30 yrs?
  • If you didn’t have to operate, how would you spend your time?
  • What would you like to attain with your prosperity?
  • Are there any economic issues you have that you would like resolved by way of the monetary organizing process? (I.e. Do you want to obtain a household and/or how to pay back for your child’s school)

Of training course, setting up for retirement is a lot more than just figuring out how a great deal cash to devote each individual thirty day period. You’ll also want to take into consideration other parts of opportunity modify you can experience in existence.

“Economical arranging goes beyond essential budgeting and evaluates subject areas this kind of as insurance policies scheduling, liability management and estate arranging,” Sheehan says. A monetary approach really should also encompass asset allocation review, education organizing for young children (like how to fork out for faculty tuition), charitable preparing and insurance coverage evaluation, she describes even more.

Of system, you will not have to attempt to solution all these concerns and eventualities on your very own. A economical planner can assistance you navigate the procedure irrespective of what stage of existence you happen to be in. You can also examine what instruments may possibly be ideal for you to use to get to your goals. For occasion, robo-advisors, like Wealthfront and Betterment, instantly regulate your financial commitment portfolio allocation relying on your goals and risk tolerance, so this may possibly be a stable suggestion for a person who would like a extra fingers-off, but continue to custom-made, strategy to retirement investing.

Wealthfront

On Wealthfront’s protected site

  • Minimum deposit and balance

    Bare minimum deposit and equilibrium requirements may possibly range depending on the financial investment car or truck selected. $500 bare minimum deposit for expenditure accounts

  • Costs

    Expenses could differ relying on the expense vehicle picked. Zero account, transfer, trading or commission fees (fund ratios may apply). Wealthfront once-a-year management advisory rate is .25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of your account equilibrium

  • Bonus

  • Financial investment cars

  • Investment decision possibilities

    Stocks, bonds, ETFs and dollars. More asset classes to your portfolio incorporate true estate, organic means and dividend stocks

  • Academic methods

    Presents cost-free financial arranging for college arranging, retirement and homebuying

Betterment

  • Least deposit and stability

    Bare minimum deposit and stability necessities may well fluctuate depending on the financial commitment automobile selected. For example, Betterment will not require purchasers to sustain a minimum expense account stability, but there is a ACH deposit bare minimum of $10. Top quality Investing requires a $100,000 minimum amount balance.

  • Expenses

    Service fees may differ based on the financial commitment auto picked. For Betterment Electronic Investing, .25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of your fund stability as an once-a-year account rate Quality Investing has a .40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} yearly cost

  • Bonus

    Up to $5,000 managed free of charge for a calendar year with a qualifying deposit inside of 45 times of signup. Valid only for new specific financial investment accounts with Betterment LLC

  • Expense automobiles

  • Investment decision alternatives

    Shares, bonds, ETFs and funds

  • Educational assets

    Betterment offers retirement and other education and learning elements

Terms implement. Does not implement to crypto asset portfolios.

“Economical preparing is a approach, it is not some thing that is finished as soon as in isolation and never revisited,” Sheehan explains. “I counsel that shoppers revisit their money program when a year, or during just about every daily life modify.”

Bottom line

A economical approach is one particular of the most important techniques you can use to figure out whether or not or not you happen to be on monitor with your retirement goals, considering the fact that the system encompasses both of those qualitative and quantitative aspects of your aims. If you will not know how to commence making a money strategy or what should really even go into your economic plan, an advisor or financial planner will be able to lend a hand.

Editorial Take note: Views, analyses, opinions or tips expressed in this write-up are those of the Decide on editorial staff’s by itself, and have not been reviewed, authorized or if not endorsed by any third social gathering.

A few charts to remember before you jump to conclusions

A few charts to remember before you jump to conclusions

This post was originally published on TKer.co

Stocks ticked lower last week, with the S&P 500 declining 0.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. The index is now up 10.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its October 12 closing low of 3,577.03 and down 17.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from its January 3 closing high of 4,796.56.

On Thursday, I had the privilege of speaking to a class taught by Greg Harmon, one of the savviest minds in trading. Harmon teaches financial markets at Case Western Reserve University’s business school.

Below are some charts I shared with his class. They’re a reminder for investors to be cautious with news headlines that may belie a greater, more nuanced truth. TKer subscribers may recognize some of them.

The stock market sorta reflects the economy. But also, not really. The S&P 500 is more about the manufacture and sale of goods. U.S. GDP is more about providing services. Read more here.

Beating expectations is generally a good thing. But when it comes to earnings announcements, “better-than-expected” has lost its meaning. Read more here.

Stock buybacks can lead to lower share counts. But is it a major driver of EPS growth? No. Read more here.

While the stock market returns about 8-10{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} per year on average, you rarely ever see the market produce an average return in a given year. Read more here.

Analysts’ forecasts are not destiny. They’ll get revised up, and they’ll get revised down. Manage your expectations with analysts’ expectations. Read more here.

A high or low P/E ratio won’t tell you where prices are headed next year. Read more here.

Employers lay off lots of workers every month, even during boom times…

… BUT even 1.3 million layoffs in a single month represent just 0.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of total employment. Read more here and here.

While we’re on the subject of layoffs, it’s important to understand that all of the tech layoffs we’re reading about are not a sign that widespread layoffs are coming. Among other things, tech represents a very small share of total employment in the U.S. Read more here.

More from TKer:

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Reviewing the macro crosscurrents 🔀

There were a few notable data points from last week to consider:

🚨 Consumers are spending. Retail sales jumped 1.3{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in October, the biggest gain in eight months. Excluding autos and gas, sales were up a strong 0.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

(Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1592876357586853888/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@USCensusBureau" class="link ">@USCensusBureau</a>)

Most retail categories saw gains.

(Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/GregDaco/status/1592876181808123913" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@GregDaco" class="link ">@GregDaco</a>)

🛍 Retailer anecdotes were mixed. Here are some headlines from the past week:

  • Walmart raises outlook as groceries boost sales, inventory glut recedes – CNBC

  • Target posts huge earnings miss as consumers pull back – Yahoo Finance

  • Lowe’s, Home Depot Beat Earnings Amid Housing Slump – Investor’s Business Daily

  • TJX posts mixed earnings with profit above estimates but sales slightly light – MarketWatch

Keep in mind that these are just anecdotes. While an individual company’s performance is certainly affected by macroeconomic trends, they also face company-specific issues that may cause them to underperform or outperform their categories.

💳 Credit card balances are up. According to New York Fed data released Tuesday, household credit card balances jumped 15{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in Q3, the biggest increase in at least 18 years of data.

Younger borrowers are carrying higher balances than before the pandemic.

While delinquencies are ticking up, it’s important to note that they’re below pre-pandemic levels. In other words, delinquencies are normalizing.

💵 Consumers still have a lot of excess savings. From Goldman Sachs: “…we estimate that households have drawn down about 25{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of their excess savings so far and will have spent around 60{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} by end-2023.“ For more on excess savings and consumer financial strength, read this.

(Source: Goldman Sachs)

(Source: Goldman Sachs)

👍 Wholesale price inflation cools. According to the BLS, the producer price index in October was up 8.0{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from a year ago. Adjusted for food and energy prices, core PPI was up 6.7{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}.

(Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1592512273108434945/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@LizAnnSonders" class="link ">@LizAnnSonders</a>)

😞 Expectations for inflation got worse. From the NY Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations: “Median inflation expectations increased at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in October, by 0.5 and 0.2 percentage point, respectively, to 5.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} and 3.1{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. Both increases were broad-based across age, education, and income groups… Median five-year-ahead inflation expectations, which have been elicited in the monthly SCE core survey on an ad-hoc basis since the beginning of this year and were first published in July 2022, increased by 0.2 percentage point to 2.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}…“

(Source: <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/inflexp-1" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:NYFed" class="link ">NYFed</a>)

🥪 Food prices are cooling. From Bloomberg’s Javier Blas: “Take the monthly food-cost index compiled by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation. Over the last two years, it surged inexorably higher, posting year-on-year increases of as much as 40{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} by the middle of 2021, and 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} to 30{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in early-to-mid 2022. Since then, however, the index has fallen back sharply, paring its annual gains in October to just 1.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996}. Based on current trends, the FAO index is likely to post in November its first annual drop in more than two years.“

(Source: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-11-16/thanksgiving-turkey-still-expensive-but-other-key-food-prices-are-falling" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Bloomberg" class="link ">Bloomberg</a>)

🌾 Food giant says prices are coming down. From Bloomberg: “Food prices will probably decline next year, even as global crop stockpiles stay very tight, especially for oilseeds, said David MacLennan, chief executive officer of Cargill Inc., America’s largest private company.“

(Source: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-16/food-prices-will-likely-be-lower-next-year-cargill-ceo-says" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Bloomberg" class="link ">Bloomberg</a>)

🦃 No Thanksgiving inflation at Walmart. From Axios’ Hope King: “Prices for a ‘typical Thanksgiving meal’ will be the same as last year, Walmart CEO Doug McMillon said on a call with analysts Tuesday morning.“

(Source: <a href="https://www.axios.com/2022/11/15/walmart-earnings-q3-inflation-thanksgiving" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Axios" class="link ">Axios</a>)

This will be welcome news for Walmart shoppers. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the average cost of Thanksgiving dinner this year is $64.05, up 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from a year ago.

(Source: <a href="https://www.fb.org/newsroom/farm-bureau-survey-shows-thanksgiving-dinner-cost-up-20" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:AFBF" class="link ">AFBF</a>)

Inventory levels are up. According to the Census Bureau, business inventories increased by 0.4{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in September.

(Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau/status/1592898802087870469/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@USCensusBureau" class="link ">@USCensusBureau</a>)

The inventory/sales ratio was 1.33 during the month, up from 1.26 a year ago.

(Source: <a href="https://www.census.gov/mtis/www/data/pdf/mtis_current.pdf" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:Census" class="link ">Census</a>)

🛠️ Business investment has been holding up. From The Wall Street Journal: “Big U.S. companies are stepping up their spending on capital projects, putting expenditures on pace to set a quarterly record even as worries about a potential recession loom. Capital spending among companies in the S&P 500 in the third quarter is set to top $200 billion, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices, which analyzed data through Monday from roughly 90{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of index components. That is on pace for a jump of about 20{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from a year earlier, roughly in line with the first and second quarter’s growth rates.“ For more on capex, read this.

(Source: <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-are-still-boosting-capital-spending-despite-higher-rates-11668691693" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:WSJ" class="link ">WSJ</a>)

🏚 Home sales continue to tumble. Sales of previously owned homes fell 5.9{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} in October to an annualized rate of 4.4 million units. From NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun: “More potential homebuyers were squeezed out from qualifying for a mortgage in October as mortgage rates climbed higher. The impact is greater in expensive areas of the country and in markets that witnessed significant home price gains in recent years.”

(Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/NAR_Research/status/1593621705318088706/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@NAR_Research" class="link ">@NAR_Research</a>)

💸 Home prices are cooling. From the NAR: “The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from October 2021 ($355,700), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 128 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.“

(Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/NAR_Research/status/1593621971165761536" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:@NAR_Research" class="link ">@NAR_Research</a>)

📉 Mortgage rates comes down a bit. According to Freddie Mac data, the average rate for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.61{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} as of November 17, down from 7.08{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} the week prior. From Freddie Mac: “Mortgage rates tumbled this week due to incoming data that suggests inflation may have peaked. While the decline in mortgage rates is welcome news, there is still a long road ahead for the housing market. Inflation remains elevated, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates high and consumers will continue to feel the impact.“

Putting it all together 🤔

While inflation appears to be cooling, it continues to be very hot. So we should expect the Federal Reserve to continue to tighten monetary policy, which means tighter financial conditions (e.g. higher interest rates and tighter lending standards). All of this means the market beatings will continue and the risk the economy sinks into a recession will intensify.

On the matter of recession risks, consumers are increasingly stretching their finances to maintain their spending. They’re accumulating more debt and a growing number of these folks are going delinquent.

But it’s important to remember that while consumer finances may be deteriorating, they are coming from a very strong position. Many still have excess savings to tap into and the labor market continues to be very favorable for workers. Indeed, strong retail spending data confirms this financial resilience. So it’s too early to sound the alarm on the consumer.

Overall, any downturn won’t turn into economic calamity given that the financial health of consumers and businesses remains very strong.

And as always, long-term investors should remember that recessions and bear markets are just part of the deal when you enter the stock market with the aim of generating long-term returns. While markets have had a terrible year so far, the long-run outlook for stocks remains positive.

This post was originally published on TKer.co

Sam Ro is the founder of TKer.co. Follow him on Twitter at @SamRo

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Largest railroad union rejects labor deal, raising risk of a crippling strike

Largest railroad union rejects labor deal, raising risk of a crippling strike


New York
CNN Business
 — 

America faces a growing risk of a crippling national freight rail strike in two weeks. The rank-and-file members of the nation’s largest rail union, which represents the industry’s conductors, rejected a tentative labor deal with freight railroads, the union announced Monday.

The nation’s second-largest rail union, which represents engineers, ratified its own contract. But the failure of the conductors to ratify their deal is another setback to efforts to avoid a strike.

With these votes, all 12 rail unions have now completed their ratification process, with members of eight of the unions voting in favor of deals and four voting against it. The four unions that have voted no will remain on the job until at least early next month while negotiations are held to try to avoid a strike that could cause widespread disruptions in the nation’s still struggling supply chain and overall economy.

If even one of the dozen railroad unions were to go on strike, the other 11 would honor the picket lines, shutting down the railroads.

If a strike goes on for an extended period, it could cause shortages and higher prices for goods including fuel and food. If the four unions that rejected the deals are unable to reach new deals before strike deadlines, Congress could order the railroad workers to remain on the job or return to work.

The two unions that released voting results Monday are the transportation division of the Sheet Metal, Air, Rail, Transportation union (SMART-TD), which represents about 28,000 conductors and the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen (BLET), which represents about 24,000 engineers. The engineers and conductors make up the two-person train crews.

Both unions reached tentative deals in September in a marathon 20-hour negotiating session just hours before their earlier strike deadlines.

President Joe Biden called those deals “a win for tens of thousands of rail workers and for their dignity and the dignity of their work.” He had directly intervened in the final round of talks, but his praise of the deals wasn’t enough to win approval from rank-and-file members of the conductors’ union.

The deals nearly got the support they needed to be ratified by both unions. One was ratified by the engineers, with 53.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} voting yes, while the other was a very slim defeat by the conductors with either a small majority or a near majority voting for ratification.

The conductors’ vote ultimately failed because the union’s rules require each of five classes of workers within the union to approve the deal for it to pass.

Although 64.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of “yardmasters,” which includes 1,300 of the union’s membership, supported the deal, 50.87{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} members of train and engine service members of the union voted against ratification. The union did not release the overall vote totals for SMART-TD members.

The no vote follow similar contract rejections by the rank-and-file members of three other rail unions – one representing track maintenance workers, another whose members maintain and operate the signal system, and a third who represent locomotive mechanics and welders.

The Association of American Railroads, the industry trade group, told CNN last week that the railroads are still hopeful of reaching new deals that can be ratified by membership without a strike taking place. It repeated that hope Monday after the latest vote.

“While railroads remain committed to reaching agreements with these remaining unions, the timeline for those to occur is short,” said the AAR’s statement.

One of those unions which earlier rejected its deal, the Brotherhood of Maintenance of Way Employes Division (BMWED), announced Monday it was moving its strike date back to Dec. 9, to be in sync with the strike date for the conductors and one of the other unions.

And it suggested all four unions should negotiate together ahead of a common Dec. 9 strike date.

The one union that might go on strike before Dec. 9, the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen [BRS], could go on strike at 12:01 am ET on Dec. 5. Last week the BRS President Michael Baldwin told CNN the union did not intend to push back its strike deadline “at this time.”

Even within many of the unions that voted in favor of the deals, there was significant opposition, as was shown in the 46.5{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of engineers who voted no.

The deals being voted down are lucrative for union members. They include an immediate 14{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} raise with back pay dating to 2020, as well as pay raises totaling 24{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} during the four-year life of the contracts, which run through 2024. Union members also would receive cash bonuses of $1,000 a year.

All told, the backpay and bonuses will give union members an average payment of $11,000 per worker once the deal is ratified.

But it’s not the pay that has been the sticking point in the negotiations. It’s the work rules and quality of life issues, such as staffing levels and paid sick time, which the tentative agreements do not include.

So far railroad management has rejected proposals from union negotiators to add sick pay as a way to win ratification from the rank and file.

Congress is already facing calls from a wide range of business groups to act to prevent a strike. About 30{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} of the nation’s freight moves by rail, when measured by the weight of the freight and the distance it travels.

The AAR joined those calls for Congressional action if new deals can’t be reached.

“Congress has historically intervened to prevent rail system disruptions. In the event that the four unions remain unwilling to enter agreements … Congress must be prepared to act and institute the terms supported by the majority of the unions, guaranteeing certainty for rail customers and the broader economy,” it said in its statement.

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, who was involved in the negotiations that reached the deals that averted a strike back in September, told CNN earlier this month that while he prefers to reach a new round of negotiated agreements, it would be necessary for Congress to act to prevent a strike.

The White House said Monday they are looking to labor and industry parties involved in negotiations to resolve a rail dispute on their own ahead of a critical December deadline.

“As the President has said from the beginning, a shutdown is unacceptable because of the harm it would inflict on jobs, families, farms, businesses and communities across the country,” a White House official told CNN.

The official added: “A majority of unions have voted to ratify the tentative agreement, and the best option is still for the parties to resolve this themselves.”

Asked Monday by CNN’s Jeremy Diamond what he was doing to avert a rail strike, President Biden responded, “We’re going to be talking about that today.”

But unlike July, when Biden was able to block the unions from going on strike by naming a panel to try to come up with a solution both sides could live with, it now rests with Congress, not Biden, to act if new labor deals can not be reached.

The unions are all opposed to Congressional intervention and want to be allowed to strike to raise pressure on the railroads to achieve their bargaining goals, though they would not be opposed to the Labor Department once again facilitating negotiations.

“We don’t think it should require the influence or cajoling of any outside party to get the railroads to be reasonable on behalf of their business or workers,” said the BMWED in a statement. “But it would be helpful for these third parties to start to facilitate the discussion. It’s clear railroads won’t engaged with us meaningfully unless they are forced to.

An added challenge: it would take bipartisan cooperation in the “Lame Duck” session of congress to pass legislation that will prevent or quickly end a strike.

– CNN’s Betsy Klein and Jeremy Diamond contributed to this report

M&A Trend Lines Take Dive in 4th Quarter

M&A Trend Lines Take Dive in 4th Quarter

M&A deal volume amid registered investment decision advisors dropped sharply last month, according to industry monitors—but it may well be as well quickly to declare the party is over.

“The wheels fell off the M&A prepare in early October,” mentioned David DeVoe, CEO of the RIA-concentrated M&A advisory firm DeVoe & Company. Noting that elevated interest rates and unpredictable money marketplaces typically conspire to slow M&A exercise, he claimed it “remains to be witnessed if these force factors are creating a short-time period lumpiness of volume or a sustained downturn.”

DeVoe, which publishes quarterly studies, counted just a one transaction in every of the previous 3 months of October—for a total of 15 all month, down 81{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} from the trailing 12-month normal. The firm expects to finish November with about the very same quantity, a 35{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} decrease from the every month ordinary of 23 specials viewed by means of the to start with a few quarters of the 12 months.

The minimize in quantity is more pronounced when in comparison with the exact same time period previous calendar year, when possible changes to the tax code contributed to a sense of urgency pushed also by headline costs and the need to have for scale and succession tactics. The factors contributed to the standing quarterly report of 76 promotions in the fourth quarter of 2021, by DeVoe’s tally.

Precise numbers vary by scorekeeper—but the tendencies, which specialists look at additional informative than totals, are consistent. Fidelity Institutional and Echelon Companions also determined the fourth quarter of 2021 as the most active for RIA M&A, with 79 and 99 deals, respectively. (Echelon has been reporting on the data the longest and persistently identifies dozens of additional offers by way of “longstanding relationships with the men and women that report deal quantity,” according to CEO Dan Seivert.)

In 2022, DeVoe tracked 203 transactions around the 1st three quarters, while Echelon counted 269 and Fidelity recognized 170. Fidelity also reported a steep fall-off in specials mid-way through the recent quarter, with just 13 in Oct. Echelon declined to share mid-quarter estimates, arguing they’re unreliable, but has recorded declining deal volumes in just about every of the initially 3 quarters of 2022.

DeVoe and Fidelity reported the knowledge could indicate a “possible turning point” or “signal a cooling industry,” but neither suggested to WealthManagement.com that volume is very likely to continue being at only a third of history amounts.

DeVoe is continue to predicting that 2023 will crack past year’s document of 241 by just a handful of deals—and that up coming yr will possible set yet another record, potentially as high as 280. Scott Slater, head of Fidelity’s practice management and consulting business for RIAs, isn’t certain whether another report will be damaged in 2022 but observed that volume is even now up 16{21df340e03e388cc75c411746d1a214f72c176b221768b7ada42b4d751988996} over past calendar year. “It’ll be incredibly near,” he explained.

Both equally mentioned fiscal markets and the soaring expense of funds are likely to dictate the diploma to which the industry may well gradual in the coming calendar year.

“I do imagine you might be likely to see ongoing slow-down,” claimed Slater. Economic factors will make consumers significantly additional selective, he predicted, but energetic acquirers with recognized platforms and M&A experience will carry on to catch the attention of personal equity capital and push continued activity.

Echelon’s Dan Seivert mentioned he sees no rationale to hope any pull-again in M&A activity and considers it unwise to draw inferences mid-way by the quarter. Echelon is nonetheless expecting to end the year with 345 full offers, he said, up from very last year’s document of 307. 

“We do not see any improve in the fundamentals as to why offer quantity will not continue on at development amounts,” he stated. “There will be ups and downs just like the industry, but the extended development will remain in area.”

Volume aside, all 3 scorekeepers concur that deal buildings are transforming, personal equity carries on to enjoy an outsized role and acquisitions are acquiring scaled-down.

Hurry Benton sits on Fidelity’s M&A Leaders Forum and heads up strategic advancement for Captrust, of 1 of the speediest escalating RIAs in the country, with 60 acquisitions in 16 several years and $950 billion in consumer assets. Benton said he has witnessed “a little bit of a slowdown” in the latest months, citing “financial market place turmoil,” but that the Captrust M&A pipeline remains entire. The agency is now on observe to finish about 50 percent as a lot of promotions as last year.

“We have a number of specials that are form of bunched up,” he explained.

Benton advised the plunging fourth quarter volume could be a delayed response to early sector contractions, brought on by potential negotiators pausing several months ago to see if a fast correction would be coming. When it did not, he said, innovative purchasers adjusted quickly and responded with “creative” deal structures that should make it possible for sellers to recoup the full price of their observe when monetary markets recover.  

Some others, such as Wealth Improvement Group’s Jim Cahn, have reported some new deal constructions might also hide a lesser payout.

“Buyers are obviously decreasing the total they’re paying in consideration at close than they were 6 to 8 months ago,” reported Slater. “They’re placing a small extra structure into what the earnout prerequisites and timeframe are heading to be. Deal structure is wherever they can regulate their risk as consumers a little more proficiently.”

Benton explained better interest costs have also struck a nerve with personal equity suppliers, which have been pouring dry powder into the RIA place. “I consider a great deal of PE-managed companies are becoming a good deal extra careful about what they’re inclined to pay out and what they’re ready to go after,” he explained, particularly among much larger promotions.

But there are “still a lot of consumers and loads of capital” pursuing smaller sized bargains as personal equity continues to spend in the acquisitive system model, he claimed. Smaller transactions, which require much less cash and debt chance, have been making up an rising portion of the full volume in 2022 by all tallies.

Benton said he is not automatically viewing more modest sellers coming to the marketplace, but he is looking at additional regional tuck-in opportunities that are of desire to his firm as Captrust carries on to expand its nationwide footprint. “It sort of feeds on alone,” he said.

Waverly Advisors in Birmingham, Ala., has completed four transactions after getting on personal fairness associates HGGC and Wealth Partners Funds Team late last year—one organization with extra than $1 billion AUM and some others that have been in the $300 million range. Waverly now has $6 billion in AUM and seems undaunted by macro concerns. CEO Josh Reidinger said he expects to do up to eight deals following calendar year.

Reidinger claimed he does expect to see a “barbell” outcome brought about by the ongoing economic uncertainty. He predicted that mid-sized techniques like his will become rarer as they grow and leave fewer opportunities in the middle as firms come to be grouped at the massive and smaller finishes of the spectrum.

“I assume you have to have to be probably a tiny bit smaller in which you can be very, really nimble or you want to get larger sized so you can truly invest,” he reported.

Benton and Reidinger both equally stated it would take an function akin to 2008 to interrupt their individual formidable growth designs.

“A large bear market place would do it,” claimed Benton. “A genuine collapse like we had in 2008 in the financial markets. I lived via that. I was the CEO of a organization getting RIAs in ‘08 and it surely slowed down. So yeah, that could transpire.”

“I imagine if there was a 2008-form party, but those people are 2 times-a-century, black swan events,” explained Reidinger. “Could that have an effect on our small business and others’ to do offers? Unquestionably it could.

“But as far as what we’re viewing ideal now, anything at all quick of cataclysmic? I don’t believe so.”